Oil volatility intensifies as Iran war risks clash with sanctions relief

New Delhi — Oil prices swung between gains and losses on Monday as escalating threats to energy infrastructure in the Middle East competed with the prospect of increased supply following a temporary easing of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.

Brent crude futures rose 65 cents to $112.84 a barrel by 0446 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 84 cents to $98.75, after both benchmarks had earlier fallen by more than $1. The spread between the two contracts widened to over $13 a barrel, the largest gap in years.

The volatility follows a U.S. decision to allow the temporary delivery and sale of Iranian-origin oil already at sea, injecting additional supply into markets strained by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.

Market sentiment remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments after Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants.Iranian officials responded with warnings that any such action would trigger attacks on critical energy and infrastructure assets across the Gulf.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said regional facilities could face “irreversible” damage if Iranian plants were targeted.Analysts said the exchange of threats pointed to a heightened risk of escalation.

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said markets were underestimating the likelihood that Iran would resist pressure, warning that further confrontation could have severe consequences for Gulf infrastructure.

Despite the release of additional Iranian oil, traders remained focused on the scale of supply disruption caused by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy flows handling roughly 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has been severely affected.Industry estimates suggest the war has removed between 7 million and 10 million barrels per day from Middle East production, tightening global supply even as policymakers attempt to stabilise markets.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said short-term price movements would continue to be driven by geopolitical rhetoric, but longer-term trends would depend on the restoration of oil flows from the region.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, described the current crisis as “very severe,” exceeding the combined impact of the oil shocks of the 1970s.The conflict, now in its fourth week, has damaged major energy facilities and disrupted shipping routes, amplifying concerns over prolonged supply constraints and broader economic fallout.

The interplay between potential supply increases from Iranian oil and the risk of further infrastructure damage has left markets exposed to sharp price swings as the situation evolves.