IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that while March deliveries largely reflected cargoes loaded before the crisis escalated, the situation has shifted significantly. “During the month of April, nothing has been loaded,” he told reporters following meetings at the International Monetary Fund, adding that prolonged disruption would intensify market pressures.

Birol said the agency is tracking damage to energy infrastructure across the region, noting that more than a third of over 80 affected facilities have sustained severe damage. He described the situation as a major energy security challenge with global implications, warning that no country would be insulated from the fallout.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said there is an urgent need to assess the scale of economic impact stemming from infrastructure losses tied to the conflict.World Bank President Ajay Banga said the institution is preparing for multiple scenarios depending on the duration and intensity of hostilities, including expanded financial support.

The IMF has indicated it can make up to $50 billion available, while the World Bank has outlined potential financing of up to $25 billion, with the possibility of increasing total support to $60 billion over six months if conditions worsen.

The conflict, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Iran’s actions to impede maritime traffic, followed by a U.S. naval blockade, have heightened concerns over supply constraints and price volatility.

Although a two-week ceasefire was agreed last week to enable negotiations, talks in Islamabad failed to produce a breakthrough, raising uncertainty over whether the truce will hold.

International mediators, including Pakistan and Qatar, have urged both sides to maintain the ceasefire, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the restoration of freedom of navigation in the region.

In an interview, Banga said the World Bank expects global growth to decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points under a baseline scenario assuming an early end to the conflict, and by as much as 1 percentage point if the war continues.

Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points, with further increases of up to 0.9 percentage point in a prolonged conflict scenario.The bank now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 4 percent in October.

In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to as low as 2.6 percent. Inflation in these economies is forecast to reach 4.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3 percent, and could climb as high as 6.7 percent if disruptions persist.

The conflict has already driven oil prices up by about 50 percent while disrupting supplies of key commodities including oil, natural gas, fertilizers and helium, alongside impacts on tourism and air travel. Continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, given its role in global energy flows.

Banga said the economic outlook depends heavily on whether ongoing negotiations lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of critical trade routes. Failure to stabilize the situation could result in longer-term damage to energy infrastructure and sustained pressure on global markets.

The World Bank has begun discussions with vulnerable countries, including small island states with limited energy resources, on accessing emergency funding through its crisis response mechanisms. These facilities allow governments to draw on pre-approved funds to manage immediate shocks without requiring new approvals.

At the same time, Banga cautioned governments against introducing unsustainable energy subsidies, warning such measures could worsen fiscal pressures in countries already burdened by high debt and elevated borrowing costs.

The crisis has intensified calls for energy diversification and greater self-sufficiency. Banga pointed to increased investments in refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria as an example of improving energy resilience, while noting ongoing World Bank support for expanding energy production in nations including Mozambique.

He added that scaling up nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy would be critical to reducing reliance on traditional fuels and mitigating future shocks to global energy systems.