Millions of people living in forest-dependent communities continue to face extreme poverty despite the global forest sector generating an estimated US$1.5 trillion annually, according to a new United Nations assessment that warns progress toward eliminating poverty among forest populations is falling behind international targets.

The findings were published in the Global Forest Goals Report 2026, released during the 21st session of the United Nations Forum on Forests on May 11. The report evaluates progress toward the United Nations General Assembly Strategic Plan for Forests 2017–2030, adopted in 2017 to strengthen the environmental, social and economic contribution of forests worldwide.

Under the framework’s second Global Forest Goal, member states committed to eradicating extreme poverty among forest-dependent people by 2030. However, the report concluded that the target is “off track,” citing persistent structural barriers that continue to prevent forest communities from benefiting fully from forest-based economies.

The global forest sector currently accounts for roughly 1% of worldwide employment, according to the assessment, yet many of the world’s poorest populations continue to reside in heavily forested regions. Large sections of these communities survive on incomes near or below US$3 per day despite forests serving as a primary source of food, fuel, income and subsistence.

The report said forestry has not significantly contributed to long-term poverty reduction among vulnerable populations because communities remain concentrated at the lowest end of supply chains with limited access to markets, processing infrastructure and commercial opportunities.

According to the UN assessment, weak market connectivity and insufficient value-added processing particularly affect producers of non-wood forest products, commonly referred to as NWFPs, which include goods such as medicinal plants, resins, nuts, fibres and wild foods. The report estimated the global value of NWFPs at approximately US$9.4 billion in 2020.

The document stated that nearly three-quarters of the global population uses some form of non-wood forest product, underlining forests’ continued importance to livelihoods and household economies, especially in rural areas across developing countries.However, the report identified major obstacles preventing forest producers from capturing greater economic returns.

These include inadequate transport infrastructure, limited access to business services, weak product standards, insufficient commercialization mechanisms and logistical bottlenecks that isolate producers from national and international markets.“Forest producers and communities remain at the low-value end of supply chains,” the assessment said, adding that infrastructure deficiencies continue to increase operational costs and reduce competitiveness for remote communities.

The report also noted a decline in forest-sector employment over the past decade. According to UN data cited in the assessment, the share of employment linked to the forest sector fell by approximately 3.1% between 2011 and 2022, further limiting income opportunities in forest-dependent regions.

The findings carry broader implications for global development targets beyond forestry itself. The UN assessment said progress in the forest sector directly affects multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, including poverty reduction, food security, access to clean water, affordable energy, economic growth and sustainable consumption.

The report linked forest-based livelihoods particularly to SDG 1 on ending poverty and SDG 2 on eliminating hunger, while also identifying connections to sanitation, energy access and rural employment generation.

Sub-Saharan Africa emerged as the region facing the greatest challenge. The report said extreme poverty rates in the region remain close to 46%, with little measurable improvement despite global declines in poverty levels over recent decades. Many of the world’s forest-dependent poor reside in Sub-Saharan Africa, where rural economies remain heavily reliant on forests for daily survival.

By comparison, several countries in Asia and Latin America showed what the report described as “partial recovery” following increases in poverty triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global extreme poverty rose sharply during the pandemic period before gradually declining from 11.4% in 2020 to approximately 10.3% in 2024, according to figures cited in the assessment. The report stated that forests played only a modest role in this recovery process.

It pointed to localized income gains generated through community forestry, agroforestry systems and payment-for-ecosystem-services programs, often referred to as PES schemes. These initiatives provided limited support for participating households but did not produce significant global reductions in poverty among forest communities.

“Data suggest that while forests continue to buffer rural livelihoods and contribute modestly to poverty reduction, there is no substantial global evidence of a significant post-2020 increase in the contribution of the forest sector to poverty eradication,” the report said.

The findings underscore a growing debate among policymakers and development agencies over how to integrate forest conservation with economic inclusion. International organizations have increasingly promoted community-led forest management and sustainable commercialization of forest resources as mechanisms for both protecting biodiversity and supporting local economies.

Environmental economists have argued that forests provide substantial indirect economic benefits through water regulation, climate stabilization and ecosystem services that are often not reflected in conventional income measurements. However, the UN assessment focused primarily on direct livelihood and poverty indicators tied to measurable household income and employment.

The report warned that without stronger investment in infrastructure, market integration and value-added forest industries, the benefits generated by the global forest economy are likely to remain concentrated away from the communities most dependent on forest resources for survival.

Ministers are set to gather in Santa Marta against the backdrop of fuel shortages and rising prices following what the International Energy Agency has described as the largest oil supply shock on record, driven in part by constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global energy supplies.

The conference, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, was initiated amid frustration with the pace of negotiations under United Nations climate frameworks, where consensus-based processes have struggled to produce a clear pathway for reducing fossil fuel dependence.

Organisers say the current energy crisis has reinforced the strategic need for a managed transition, even as some governments increase coal use in the short term to stabilise domestic supply.Energy security considerations are expected to weigh as heavily as climate commitments during the discussions, reflecting the policy dilemma facing both advanced and developing economies.

Countries including Australia, Canada and Norway are expected to attend alongside emerging producers such as Angola, Mexico and Brazil, as well as coal-reliant economies like Turkiye and Vietnam. European nations including Germany, France and the United Kingdom are also set to participate.

However, several of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will not be represented, limiting the scope of any immediate global alignment.Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres said the meeting has gained increased relevance in light of recent geopolitical developments, describing it as an opportunity to foster more direct engagement between producers and consumers on an issue often constrained in multilateral forums.

Analysts say the smaller, focused format may allow for more candid discussions but could also dilute outcomes given the diversity of national interests. Climate scientist Bill Hare of Climate Analytics noted that broader participation can make it harder to reach specific commitments, while supporters argue the inclusion of fossil fuel-producing nations marks a necessary step in advancing negotiations.

Participants from climate-vulnerable states, including Tuvalu and Vanuatu, are expected to push for accelerated timelines, citing the disproportionate impact of climate change and their reliance on imported energy. Officials from these countries have framed the current crisis as further evidence of the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Global investment in clean energy now outpaces spending on fossil fuels by roughly a factor of two, yet emissions from coal, oil and gas reached a record high in 2025, underscoring the gap between policy commitments and implementation.

The Santa Marta meeting is not expected to yield binding agreements but will contribute to a voluntary roadmap on fossil fuel transition being developed under Brazil’s leadership, as countries continue to grapple with balancing climate goals and energy security.

In the high-altitude grasslands of Colorado, known for their dense summer blooms of corn lilies, aspen sunflowers and sub-alpine larkspur, a decades-long ecological experiment is providing new evidence of how climate change is altering fragile mountain ecosystems.

Established in January 1991, the study is among the earliest and longest-running efforts to examine how rising temperatures influence plant and soil systems in alpine environments.Scientists initially expected that warmer conditions would extend the growing season and increase vegetation density.

Instead, the experimental plots showed a steady decline in grasses and wildflowers. Over time, these species were replaced by sagebrush, transforming sections of the meadow into landscapes resembling arid scrubland. Researchers also observed significant changes below ground, where fungal communities in the soil shifted in response to sustained warming.

The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicate that such ecosystems may not respond to warming in ways previously anticipated. The study concludes that these meadows could largely disappear in the coming decades if global temperatures rise by 2°C above preindustrial levels.

The transformation observed in Colorado is part of a broader ecological process increasingly documented in cold regions worldwide, commonly referred to as “shrubification.” This process involves the gradual replacement of grasses and low-lying vegetation with woody shrubs and, in some cases, trees.

According to Sarah Dalrymple, a conservation ecologist at Liverpool John Moores University who studies similar changes in Iceland, warming temperatures are reducing environmental constraints that historically limited plant growth in cold climates.

She said that as conditions become less severe, plant communities shift from grasslands or heath ecosystems toward shrub-dominated landscapes, with potential progression to forested environments.

Dalrymple noted that grasses and alpine plants are adapted to short growing seasons and harsh climatic conditions. As these constraints ease, shrubs and trees, which require longer periods to establish leaf and stem structures, gain a competitive advantage.

This transition represents a fundamental reorganization of ecosystems that have remained relatively stable for thousands of years.

While the expansion of shrubs and trees can provide benefits such as increased shelter for wildlife, livestock and human activity, researchers say the broader implications are more complex. Dalrymple said that the spread of woody vegetation in cold regions is associated with processes that can accelerate climate change, particularly through the thawing of permafrost.

Permafrost contains large quantities of stored carbon, and its melting can release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Dalrymple said that afforestation in these environments can intensify this process, contributing to increased carbon emissions. She emphasized that the rapid pace of ecological change is a key concern, particularly given its potential effects on the global carbon cycle.

Researchers stress that shrubification itself is not inherently negative but is indicative of broader systemic changes driven by rising global temperatures. Dalrymple said the primary issue lies in the inability to control carbon emissions, with vegetation shifts representing a downstream consequence rather than a direct cause.

Scientists involved in the Colorado study and related research warn that the rate of change appears to be faster than earlier projections suggested. The assumption that ecosystems would respond gradually to warming is being challenged by evidence from long-term observations, which show rapid and sometimes irreversible transitions.

Dalrymple said these changes are not confined to a single region but are occurring across multiple high-altitude and high-latitude environments. This suggests that similar transformations could take place in mountain systems globally, affecting biodiversity, water cycles and land use patterns.

Despite these trends, parts of the Colorado meadows continue to display the dense, insect-rich floral landscapes that have drawn visitors for decades. Souza, who has been visiting the research area since 2012, described the environment as unusually vibrant, noting the intensity and abundance of flowers during peak bloom periods.

She said the visual richness of the landscape remains striking but acknowledged concerns about its long-term stability under continued warming.

The contrast between present-day conditions and projected future changes underscores the uncertainty facing ecosystems that have historically depended on stable climatic conditions.