The world’s largest oil importer boosted production through a combination of intensified drilling at ageing fields, offshore expansion and early-stage shale development, but experts say further gains will be constrained by rising costs and geological limits.

China’s output reached about 4.32 million barrels per day last year, and government targets outlined in its latest five-year plan call for maintaining production near 4 million bpd through 2030.

Industry observers view this level as a strategic baseline to support manufacturing and energy security.

Despite these efforts, China remains heavily dependent on imports, which stood at 11.55 million bpd last year, underscoring the structural gap between domestic supply and demand.

Zhu Weilin said national oil companies are working to sustain output at current levels to guard against supply disruptions, particularly as global markets face volatility.

Much of China’s production resilience comes from mature oilfields such as Daqing oil field, a cornerstone of the country’s energy sector for decades. The field continues to produce roughly 600,000 bpd, supported by advanced recovery techniques.

Engineers have deployed “tertiary recovery” methods, including chemical injection, to extract remaining reserves from ageing wells.

These techniques can increase output by about 20% compared to traditional water-injection methods.The scale of such operations has made China a global leader in enhanced oil recovery, with expertise exported to projects in countries including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

While shale oil output is expected to grow and potentially double by 2035, analysts say it remains commercially challenging due to higher extraction costs and technical complexity.

Offshore production, another key driver of recent growth, is also showing signs of slowing expansion, further limiting upside potential.

The production plateau comes as China navigates shifting energy dynamics, including slowing economic growth and a transition toward electrification in transport, which is expected to temper demand growth over time.

At the same time, disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East a region supplying roughly half of China’s crude imports have reinforced the importance of maintaining stable domestic output.

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement, under which China will purchase 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from the Gulf Arab state.

CNPC will also take an equity stake in the eastern expansion of Qatar’s North Field LNG project, QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi said at the signing.

The stake is the equivalent of 5% of one LNG train with capacity of 8 million metric tons a year.

“Today we are signing two agreements that will further enhance our strong relations with one of the most important gas markets in the world and key market for Qatari energy products,” Kaabi said.

In an identical deal, QatarEnergy sealed a 27-year supply agreement with China’s Sinopec in November for 4 million metric tons a year. The state-owned Chinese gas giant also took an equity stake equivalent to 5% of one LNG train of 8 million metric tons a year capacity.

Asia, with an appetite for long-term sales and purchase agreements, has outpaced Europe in locking in supply from Qatar’s two-phase expansion plan that will raise its liquefaction capacity to 126 million metric tons a year by 2027 from 77 million.

Tuesday’s deal will be QatarEnergy’s third deal to supply LNG from the expansion to an Asian buyer.

Other Asian buyers are also in talks for equity stakes in the expansion, Kaabi said.

Deals With ‘ Value-Added Partners’

Qatar is the world’s top LNG exporter and competition for LNG has ramped up since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with Europe in particular needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent’s imports.

Reuters had earlier reported that CNPC was close to finalising a deal to buy LNG from QatarEnergy over nearly 30 years from the North Field expansion project.

QatarEnergy had previously said that it could give up to 5% stakes in the gas trains linked to its North Field expansion to what Kaabi, the Gulf state’s energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy, described as “value-added partners”.

In April, China’s Sinopec became the first Asian energy company to become a “value-added” partner in the project.

QatarEnergy has also signed equity partnerships on the project with international oil companies but has said it plans to retain a 75% stake in the North Field expansion, which will cost at least $30 billion including construction of liquefaction export facilities.

As Beijing’s ties with the United States and Australia, Qatar’s two biggest LNG export rivals, are strained, Chinese national energy firms increasingly see Qatar as a safer target for resource investment.

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country’s $445 billion sovereign wealth fund, will manage most of the revenues from the North Field expansion,” Kaabi said.

“I think the majority of the revenue of what’s going to come from this North Field expansion will go into a future generation wealth fund in QIA … making sure that the Qatari people and people living in Qatar are well taken care of.”