In an interview, Banga said the World Bank expects global growth to decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points under a baseline scenario assuming an early end to the conflict, and by as much as 1 percentage point if the war continues.

Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points, with further increases of up to 0.9 percentage point in a prolonged conflict scenario.The bank now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 4 percent in October.

In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to as low as 2.6 percent. Inflation in these economies is forecast to reach 4.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3 percent, and could climb as high as 6.7 percent if disruptions persist.

The conflict has already driven oil prices up by about 50 percent while disrupting supplies of key commodities including oil, natural gas, fertilizers and helium, alongside impacts on tourism and air travel. Continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, given its role in global energy flows.

Banga said the economic outlook depends heavily on whether ongoing negotiations lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of critical trade routes. Failure to stabilize the situation could result in longer-term damage to energy infrastructure and sustained pressure on global markets.

The World Bank has begun discussions with vulnerable countries, including small island states with limited energy resources, on accessing emergency funding through its crisis response mechanisms. These facilities allow governments to draw on pre-approved funds to manage immediate shocks without requiring new approvals.

At the same time, Banga cautioned governments against introducing unsustainable energy subsidies, warning such measures could worsen fiscal pressures in countries already burdened by high debt and elevated borrowing costs.

The crisis has intensified calls for energy diversification and greater self-sufficiency. Banga pointed to increased investments in refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria as an example of improving energy resilience, while noting ongoing World Bank support for expanding energy production in nations including Mozambique.

He added that scaling up nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy would be critical to reducing reliance on traditional fuels and mitigating future shocks to global energy systems.

The statement, submitted by Indonesia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Umar Hadi, called for strengthened protection measures for peacekeeping forces amid escalating security risks. It also urged an end to violence and a return to negotiations to secure a peaceful resolution in Lebanon.

Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry said the safety of UN personnel was “non-negotiable,” stressing the need for the Security Council to use all available mechanisms to safeguard troops deployed in volatile environments.

The appeal follows a series of explosions in southern Lebanon in late March that killed three Indonesian peacekeepers serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and wounded several others, including personnel from France, Ghana, Nepal and Poland.

A separate blast inside a UN facility less than a week later injured three more Indonesian soldiers.The incidents prompted Jakarta to demand accountability and enhanced security guarantees for peacekeeping missions.

The Foreign Ministry described the attacks as “unacceptable” and called for an urgent meeting of troop-contributing countries to review safety protocols and operational conditions within UNIFIL.

President Prabowo Subianto condemned the attacks, saying such acts undermine peace efforts and result in the loss of lives of Indonesian personnel deployed abroad.

The UNIFIL mission, established to monitor hostilities and support stability in southern Lebanon, operates in a region that has seen renewed tensions in recent weeks, raising concerns over the safety of international peacekeepers.

The vote, initially expected on Saturday, will now take place sometime next week, according to two diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the private nature of council discussions.

Bahrain, which holds the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council this month, had significantly watered down the resolution in an effort to secure consensus among the council’s 15 members.

The revised draft authorizes defensive measures to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait, stopping short of the offensive military action initially backed by Gulf states and the United States.

The delay underscores continued divisions within the council, with Russia and China still unwilling to support the modified proposal, diplomats said.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply typically flows, has become a focal point of international concern amid escalating conflict in the region, raising fears over energy security and global trade disruptions.

Bahrain has been seeking unanimous backing for the resolution, but the postponement highlights the challenges of achieving agreement among major powers on how to respond to the the crisis.

Iranian authorities said the aircraft was shot down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ aerospace defense systems, describing the jet as “completely obliterated” and confirming that search operations were ongoing. U.S. media reported that one of the two crew members had been rescued by American special forces, while efforts continued to recover the second.

The U.S. Central Command did not immediately comment on the incident, though the White House said President Donald Trump had been briefed. In remarks to NBC, Trump said the loss would not affect ongoing negotiations with Iran, stating, “No, not at all. No, it’s war.

”Iranian state media indicated that authorities had offered a “valuable reward” for the capture of any surviving crew member, underscoring the urgency and strategic importance attached to the recovery effort.

In a separate development, Iran’s military said it had also struck a U.S. A-10 ground attack aircraft in the Gulf, while U.S. media reported that the pilot in that incident had been rescued. There was no immediate confirmation from U.S. officials.

The incident comes amid an escalating conflict that began more than a month ago following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering a broader regional confrontation. The conflict has disrupted economic activity across the Middle East and raised concerns over global energy security.U.S.

Central Command said earlier this week that American forces had flown more than 13,000 missions and struck over 12,300 targets during operations in Iran. Despite sustained bombardment, analysts say Iran retains operational air defense capabilities.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the downing likely reflected continued effectiveness of Iran’s residual defenses. He noted that U.S. aircraft flying at lower altitudes may be more exposed to threats, adding that portable shoulder-fired missiles were a plausible cause.

Mark Cancian, a defense adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said such systems are harder to detect and could explain the aircraft loss. He described the broader U.S. air campaign as successful but noted that even limited losses can carry political consequences domestically.

Retired U.S. brigadier general Houston Cantwell said survival training for downed pilots prioritizes concealment and communication to enable recovery while avoiding capture. He added that both sides typically attempt to intercept or manipulate signals during such operations.

The downing represents the first U.S. jet loss in combat since 2003, when an aircraft was struck over Baghdad and the pilot was safely recovered. Rescue missions in contested environments often rely on helicopters, which Cantwell said are particularly vulnerable due to their slower speed and lower altitude.

The U.S. military has previously acknowledged other aircraft losses during the current conflict, including a tanker crash in Iraq and several fighter jets downed in friendly fire incidents involving allied forces.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation said the strike caused fires at fuel facilities within the airport perimeter, though it did not immediately provide details on casualties or the extent of operational disruption.

Authorities said emergency teams were deployed to contain the blaze, with firefighting operations underway at the site. Initial reports indicated that the attack involved unmanned aerial vehicles, but no group has claimed responsibility.

There was no immediate confirmation on whether flight operations had been suspended or diverted following the incident.The attack comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with recent military activity affecting energy infrastructure and key transport routes across the region.

Airports and oil storage sites are considered high-value targets due to their strategic and economic importance.

Kuwaiti officials have not released further details on damage assessments or potential security measures following the strike.

Mental health specialists and humanitarian organisations say the latest escalation, following the 2024 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, is compounding years of trauma linked to economic collapse, displacement and the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

More than 1,120 people have been killed, 3,235 wounded and around 1.3 million displaced in less than a month, according to available data, with United Nations estimates indicating roughly one-fifth of the population has been forced from their homes.

Civilians fleeing Israeli airstrikes and evacuation warnings have often left without belongings, seeking refuge in overcrowded areas including Beirut, where conditions remain strained.

Aid agencies warn that repeated displacement is reopening psychological wounds, particularly among those already affected by previous crises.Dr. George Karam, a Beirut-based psychiatrist, said that between 2020 and 2023, 63% of Lebanese experienced mental health problems, and that the current conflict is worsening these conditions “to a dangerous degree.”

He said demand for psychological support has risen sharply as people struggle with fear, exhaustion and uncertainty.The International Rescue Committee said that even before the latest escalation, nearly half the population screened positive for conditions such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Ongoing exposure to violence is now driving increased cases of severe anxiety, sleep disruption and emotional distress, it added.Lebanon’s National Mental Health Programme has expanded services, including hotlines and public guidance, but demand is rapidly outpacing capacity.

Calls to crisis hotlines doubled in the first 10 days of the escalation, with 55% of callers reporting acute distress and 30% expressing suicidal thoughts, according to programme data.

Mobile crisis teams have been deployed across Beirut and other regions to provide urgent care for those unable to access health facilities. However, insecurity and infrastructure damage are limiting access just as needs surge, aid groups said.

Children, women and displaced populations are bearing disproportionate impacts. UNICEF estimates more than 370,000 children have been displaced in three weeks, while UN Women reports that about a quarter of women and girls have been forced to flee, increasing risks of income loss, disrupted healthcare and gender-based violence.

The UN refugee agency has warned of a “humanitarian catastrophe,” as overcrowding, instability and limited services deepen vulnerabilities across communities.

Aid officials say the psychological toll is now visible across all segments of society, including among those with no prior history of mental health conditions. “People are living under constant threat, with no clear sense of safety,” said Magda Rossmann, the International Rescue Committee’s country director in Lebanon.

Lebanese health officials warn that without sustained international funding and an end to hostilities, the mental health impact of the crisis could become a long-term public health emergency, with effects lasting for years beyond the conflict.

The temporary tax cut will lower fuel costs by 26.3 Australian cents per litre, Albanese said, while the government will also remove the heavy road user charge.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the combined measures would cost about A$2.55 billion.

Global oil markets have tightened sharply after disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global supply previously passed. Brent crude has risen 59% in March, reaching $115.66 per barrel at the start of trading on Monday.

Domestic fuel prices have climbed in response, with diesel exceeding A$3 per litre and petrol reaching A$2.50, according to industry data.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the government would use expanded powers to support fuel imports, including underwriting high-cost spot cargoes through Export Finance Australia to ensure supply continuity.

The move aims to assist smaller fuel importers that may be unable to absorb the risks of volatile prices.

Canberra said Australia currently holds fuel reserves equivalent to about 30 days of diesel and jet fuel, and 39 days of petrol, below the 90-day level recommended by the International Energy Agency.

Officials said the country remains at level two of a national fuel security framework focused on maintaining transport and supply chains, warning that prolonged conflict could intensify economic pressures.

The Saudi embassy in Beirut said the advisory was issued due to the “repercussions of the current events,” noting that a travel ban to Lebanon had already been in place for several years.

The warning comes as Israeli forces deploy thousands of troops into southern Lebanon, aiming to secure territory up to the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the border.

Since March 2, more than one million people have been displaced across Lebanon, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Around 136,000 are sheltering in approximately 660 collective sites, many of them overcrowded schools with limited sanitation access.

UNHCR representative Karolina Lindholm Billing said the situation on the ground was “extremely worrying,” warning of a real risk of humanitarian catastrophe if the conflict continues.

“Lebanon was already facing multiple crises, and this massive displacement is adding immense pressure,” she said, adding that affected civilians repeatedly expressed a desire to return home.

The UN refugee agency has appealed for more than $60 million to scale up its response, but officials say needs are rising faster than available funding as displacement accelerates.

The developments underscore mounting regional fallout from the conflict, with foreign governments increasingly issuing advisories to protect their citizens amid deteriorating security conditions.

Speaking alongside Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, von der Leyen said the impact of the crisis was already being felt across economies through rising oil and gas prices.

“We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices on our businesses and our societies,” she said, highlighting the broader economic repercussions of prolonged instability in a region central to global energy production and transit.

Her remarks come as the Middle East conflict disrupts key supply routes and raises concerns over sustained volatility in energy markets.

The region accounts for a significant share of global oil exports, making it highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions.Von der Leyen emphasized that continued hostilities risk compounding inflationary pressures and undermining business confidence, particularly in energy-importing economies.

She urged all parties to pursue a diplomatic solution, stressing the urgency of de-escalation. “It is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East,” she said.

Her comments reflect growing international concern over the broader economic fallout of the conflict, as governments and institutions monitor its impact on global trade, energy flows and financial markets.