The restriction, imposed last week and expected to remain in place until at least the end of March, aims to prevent domestic shortages in China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to market sources.

The move curtails exports that were valued at about $22 billion last year.War disruptions amplify supply strainEven before the export curbs, Asian refiners were seeking alternative crude supplies as the conflict in the Middle East disrupted flows from the Gulf.

Several refineries in the region, a key supplier of fuel to Asia, have shut operations as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was halted.

The combined impact has intensified competition for available cargoes, leaving import-dependent economies exposed to supply shocks.

Australia, Bangladesh and the Philippines, which rely heavily on Chinese refined fuel exports, are expected to face immediate challenges in meeting demand.

China accounted for roughly one-third of Australia’s jet fuel imports last year and about half of supplies to Bangladesh and the Philippines in 2024.

China ranks as Asia’s fourth-largest exporter of refined, or “clean,” fuels after South Korea, India and Singapore, and plays a pivotal role as a swing supplier when regional demand fluctuates.

Analysts say the sudden halt in exports leaves limited room for other suppliers to compensate. “The remaining Asian exporters simply do not have the spare volumes to replicate China’s role as the region’s swing supplier,” Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof said.

Benchmark refining margins in Singapore, known as “cracks,” are expected to continue rising as markets adjust through higher-priced replacement cargoes or reduced demand.

Fuel prices across Asia have climbed sharply. Diesel derivatives rose to $150 per barrel on March 17, while jet fuel swaps reached $163 per barrel, up from about $92 before the war, according to LSEG data.

Gasoline traded at $139.80 per barrel on Monday, compared with $79.30 on February 27.The tightening market is already affecting downstream sectors. Vietnam has warned airlines to prepare for potential flight cuts from April due to fuel shortages linked to export restrictions.

China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that military action in the Middle East should cease and that Beijing is willing to work with other countries to ensure energy security.

Retail fuel prices climbed more than 10% during the week as markets reacted to supply disruptions linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The surge presents a potential political challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration has pledged to lower energy costs and expand domestic oil and gas production.Speaking in an interview with Reuters, Trump dismissed concerns about the increase, saying that “if they rise, they rise.”Prices climb to multi-month highsAccording to data from the American Automobile Association, the national average price of regular gasoline reached $3.32 per gallon on Friday, an 11% increase from a week earlier and the highest level since September 2024.Diesel prices rose even more sharply, climbing 15% over the same period to $4.33 per gallon, their highest level since November 2023.

The United States is the world’s largest oil producer and a significant exporter, but it also imports millions of barrels daily due to its status as the world’s largest oil consumer. Analysts say global disruptions can therefore affect domestic fuel prices even when U.S. production remains strong.Midwest and South feel the impactSome of the steepest increases were reported in the Midwest and southern United States. In Georgia, average gasoline prices rose 40.1 cents per gallon in the past week, according to the fuel tracking website GasBuddy.Andrenna McDaniel, a healthcare insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia, said the rise came quickly. “They jumped up so quickly,” she said, adding that she has reduced driving to essential trips.Others expressed support for the administration’s actions. Richard Soule, a retired firefighter and U.S. Air Force veteran in Marietta, said he believed the increase was acceptable in light of national security concerns as he filled up his pickup truck.Other states including Indiana and West Virginia recorded weekly increases of more than 40 cents per gallon.Supply concerns drive outlookOil markets have reacted strongly to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping corridor for crude exports. On Friday, U.S. oil futures settled at $90.90 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since April 2020.Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, said gasoline prices could climb further if crude prices continue rising and supply disruptions persist.Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, said global demand for U.S. crude has increased as refineries in Asia and Europe seek alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies, tightening domestic fuel markets.

Diesel markets face additional pressure from strong global demand for freight transportation, power generation and heating during an extended winter, combined with limited refining capacity.Higher diesel costs can ripple through the broader economy because the fuel is widely used in shipping, agriculture and manufacturing, raising the cost of transporting goods ranging from food to household products.