The selloff follows a sharp rise in global oil prices toward $100 a barrel, intensifying pressure on Thailand, which relies on the Middle East for nearly half of its oil and gas imports, according to Krungsri Research.

Data showed foreign investors were net sellers of $823 million in Thai equities in March, while bond outflows reached $705 million, marking the largest combined outflow since October 2024. The reversal came after a brief resurgence in inflows earlier this year, including $1.7 billion in equity purchases in February.

Investor optimism had been buoyed by the election of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose victory raised expectations of political stability and economic reform.

However, the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February triggered a rapid reassessment of risk.Analysts say Thailand faces a more acute challenge than many regional peers due to its economic structure and policy constraints.

The economy had already been struggling, with growth of 2.4% last year and a prolonged period of deflation that prompted a rate cut by the central bank in February.“The risk remains that higher fuel costs hit consumption and disrupt exports and tourism,” said Daniel Tan, a portfolio manager at Grasshopper Asset Management, highlighting concerns about key growth drivers.

Thailand’s heavy reliance on natural gas, which accounts for more than half of its power generation, adds to its exposure. Rising liquefied natural gas imports are expected to further increase costs as energy markets tighten.

The Thai baht has weakened nearly 3% since the conflict began, though it has recovered some ground following a recent ceasefire. Analysts say the currency is acting as a key adjustment mechanism, helping absorb external shocks.

Market participants also point to limited policy flexibility. With public debt nearing the government’s self-imposed ceiling of 70% of gross domestic product, fiscal space is constrained, while monetary policy faces a trade-off between supporting growth and containing inflation.

“There’s a broad consensus among investors that Thailand is in a policy bind,” said Gary Tan of Allspring Global Investments, noting that the central bank has limited room to tighten or ease policy without adverse consequences.

Inflation, which had been contracting earlier this year, is now projected to rise as much as 3.5% depending on how the conflict evolves, marking a sharp shift in the economic outlook.

While a temporary ceasefire has supported a rebound in Thai equities and the baht, analysts caution that prolonged high energy prices could further weigh on growth, consumption and the external balance.

In an interview, Banga said the World Bank expects global growth to decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points under a baseline scenario assuming an early end to the conflict, and by as much as 1 percentage point if the war continues.

Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points, with further increases of up to 0.9 percentage point in a prolonged conflict scenario.The bank now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 4 percent in October.

In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to as low as 2.6 percent. Inflation in these economies is forecast to reach 4.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3 percent, and could climb as high as 6.7 percent if disruptions persist.

The conflict has already driven oil prices up by about 50 percent while disrupting supplies of key commodities including oil, natural gas, fertilizers and helium, alongside impacts on tourism and air travel. Continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, given its role in global energy flows.

Banga said the economic outlook depends heavily on whether ongoing negotiations lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of critical trade routes. Failure to stabilize the situation could result in longer-term damage to energy infrastructure and sustained pressure on global markets.

The World Bank has begun discussions with vulnerable countries, including small island states with limited energy resources, on accessing emergency funding through its crisis response mechanisms. These facilities allow governments to draw on pre-approved funds to manage immediate shocks without requiring new approvals.

At the same time, Banga cautioned governments against introducing unsustainable energy subsidies, warning such measures could worsen fiscal pressures in countries already burdened by high debt and elevated borrowing costs.

The crisis has intensified calls for energy diversification and greater self-sufficiency. Banga pointed to increased investments in refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria as an example of improving energy resilience, while noting ongoing World Bank support for expanding energy production in nations including Mozambique.

He added that scaling up nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy would be critical to reducing reliance on traditional fuels and mitigating future shocks to global energy systems.

The benchmark Nifty 50 climbed 1.6% to 23,277.50, while the BSE Sensex gained 1.53% to 75,212.07 as of 9:50 a.m. IST, putting markets on track for a second straight day of advances.

Market sentiment improved after reports that Washington has proposed a month-long ceasefire and presented Tehran with a 15-point framework aimed at de-escalating the conflict.

The development raised expectations of reduced geopolitical risk, particularly around global energy supply disruptions.The conflict has unsettled financial markets in recent weeks, with concerns over oil supply routes and inflationary pressures weighing on investor confidence.

Markets track global cuesIndian equities, which are sensitive to global risk sentiment and crude price movements, reacted positively to signs of potential diplomatic progress.

A de-escalation could help stabilise energy prices, a key factor for India as a major oil importer.

Gains in domestic markets reflect broader optimism that easing tensions may reduce volatility across emerging markets, which have been under pressure amid the ongoing conflict.

Market sentiment was further supported by expectations of stronger fourth quarter corporate results, improving liquidity conditions, and cautious optimism around oil price stability, all of which helped lift buying interest across banking and blue chip stocks.

The benchmark Saudi index advanced for a third straight session, led by gains in major lenders such as Al Rajhi Bank, as traders reacted positively to signals of regulatory easing and the potential for increased foreign capital inflows.

Analysts noted that the anticipated market opening could improve valuation depth, broaden investor participation, and enhance Saudi Arabia’s standing among emerging markets, even as concerns remain about global volatility and regional geopolitical risks.

Oil prices also played a supportive role, rebounding sharply in recent sessions amid heightened geopolitical pressure on Iran and supply related concerns, which helped reinforce confidence in energy linked revenues across the Gulf.

Despite this support, market participants remain selective, closely watching whether crude prices can sustain their recovery and continue to provide a stable earnings backdrop for listed companies.

In contrast, Qatar’s stock market edged lower as investors opted to lock in profits, with selling pressure seen across all major constituents including leading banking stocks.

Cautious sentiment persists in the Qatari market as investors weigh earnings prospects against regional uncertainty and the broader risk environment.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s equity market continued its strong upward momentum, with the main index touching a new record high supported by gains in real estate and diversified conglomerates.

The rally reflects sustained domestic investor interest, improving confidence in economic reforms, and expectations of resilient corporate performance despite global headwinds.

Opening marginally higher at 87.9350 against the U.S. dollar, the rupee strengthened to 87.78 by the end of trading, up from Friday’s close of 87.9750.

Analysts highlight that the combined intervention by the RBI and state-run banks has helped maintain orderly market conditions, providing reassurance to investors both domestically and internationally.

Market participants indicated that state-owned banks were largely behind the early lift in the rupee, likely acting in coordination with the central bank.

Traders noted that the RBI appears focused on ensuring the rupee remains above the 88-mark, reflecting a proactive approach to currency management and signaling the central bank’s commitment to maintaining stability in foreign exchange markets.

“Market sentiment has improved as the RBI’s intervention demonstrates a clear commitment to keeping the rupee within a manageable range,” said a senior currency trader at a private sector bank.

“The central bank’s proactive measures help reduce volatility and provide a foundation for both corporate and investor confidence.”

Last week, the RBI conducted pre-market interventions on multiple occasions to prevent the rupee from sliding past record lows, selling U.S. dollars to counter speculative positions and restore market balance.

These actions helped stabilize the currency while also signaling the central bank’s readiness to act decisively to manage short-term pressures.

Analysts note that such interventions are viewed positively by global investors, reflecting the strength of India’s macroeconomic framework.

In addition to RBI support, equity market inflows have contributed to a positive outlook for the rupee. Foreign portfolio investors have been net buyers of over $1 billion in the past week, providing additional liquidity and reinforcing sentiment.

The combination of central bank support and robust equity inflows has enhanced confidence in the rupee, even as corporate demand for dollars continues to influence short-term movements.

“The recent equity inflows are complementing the RBI’s actions, offering a supportive backdrop for the rupee,” noted the trader. “These factors together are encouraging a balanced and resilient foreign exchange environment.”

Despite international developments, including comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Indian oil imports from Russia, the rupee remained largely unaffected.

Analysts highlight that the currency’s performance is being driven primarily by domestic factors, including RBI interventions and strong capital inflows, rather than external geopolitical commentary.

The rupee’s recent strength is also being viewed positively in terms of broader economic implications. A stable currency supports investor confidence, facilitates trade, and helps maintain predictable input costs for Indian businesses.

By keeping fluctuations in check, the RBI is playing a key role in ensuring that India’s foreign exchange environment remains supportive of growth and investment.

Looking ahead, the rupee is expected to continue benefitting from a combination of central bank guidance, ongoing equity inflows, and overall macroeconomic stability.

Analysts suggest that the RBI’s careful management, combined with market-driven support, positions the currency for measured gains and reduced volatility.

This environment offers reassurance to international investors and businesses engaging with India, enhancing the country’s appeal as a stable destination for trade and investment.

Overall, the recent rupee gains highlight India’s ability to manage short-term pressures through coordinated policy measures and market support.

With the RBI anchoring sentiment and foreign investment flows contributing to liquidity, the rupee’s stability underscores the resilience of India’s financial markets and the effectiveness of proactive currency management in fostering investor confidence.

Despite temporary weakness against a stronger dollar, South Africa’s economy shows resilience as investors remain confident in stable inflation trends and renewed growth prospects for Africa’s most industrialized nation.

The South African rand held steady on Friday despite pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar, closing a volatile week on a note of resilience.

While global trade tensions briefly influenced market sentiment, analysts say investors remain optimistic about South Africa’s steady economic fundamentals and upcoming inflation data, which could reaffirm price stability and boost investor confidence.

At 1509 GMT, the rand traded around 17.38 against the dollar — only 0.2% weaker than Thursday’s close — showing remarkable stability compared to other emerging market currencies.

The minor movement underscores the rand’s ability to absorb global pressures while maintaining a firm footing in a challenging international trading environment.

The U.S. dollar rose roughly 0.3% against a basket of global currencies, driven by improving U.S. economic indicators. However, South Africa’s economic resilience stood out as the rand maintained a narrow trading range throughout the week.

Market watchers attributed the week’s movements largely to renewed global trade concerns, following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump about tariffs on China.

Still, many experts note that South Africa’s diversified economy and disciplined fiscal framework have helped cushion the impact of external developments.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index (.JTOPI) was down about 2% on Friday, trimming earlier gains. Analysts, however, viewed this as part of normal market rotation after strong performances in recent sessions.

“The JSE Top 40 index is being led lower by gold and precious metals today — the very stocks that recently fueled our market’s outperformance,” explained Shaun Murison, senior analyst at Rand Swiss.

While some South African mining stocks such as Sibanye Stillwater, Harmony Gold, Valterra Platinum, Impala Platinum, Northam Platinum, and Gold Fields saw declines ranging between 6% and 9%, analysts expect the sector to recover soon, buoyed by resilient global demand for precious metals and platinum group metals.

Economists highlight that local investors are now turning their focus toward the release of South Africa’s September consumer price inflation (CPI) data, expected next week. The data will offer fresh insights into inflation trends and could influence the South African Reserve Bank’s policy outlook going forward.

In August, headline consumer inflation eased to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.5% in July — comfortably within the central bank’s target range of 3% to 6%. Economists at Investec noted in their latest research that they expect inflation to remain stable, citing limited upward pressure on prices due to easing fuel costs and steady food prices.

“Inflation is likely to hold steady in September, providing continued support to household purchasing power and helping maintain consumer confidence,” Investec said.

Meanwhile, economists surveyed forecast a slight rise to 3.5%, still well within the comfort zone for monetary policymakers. This stable inflation trajectory reinforces South Africa’s reputation as one of Africa’s most stable macroeconomic environments.

Adding to the positive sentiment, South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond remained firm, with the yield easing slightly by half a basis point to 9.03%. The consistent bond performance reflects investor confidence in the country’s fiscal discipline and long-term economic prospects.

Financial experts say that the rand’s current performance is a reflection of both external factors and the strong domestic fundamentals supporting South Africa’s economy. “Despite global headwinds, South Africa continues to demonstrate stability through prudent monetary management and a resilient financial system,” said one Johannesburg-based trader.

The South African Reserve Bank’s cautious approach to interest rates has also been credited with maintaining currency stability. While the global economic climate remains uncertain, the rand’s relative steadiness offers reassurance to both domestic and international investors.

Looking ahead, economists expect the combination of steady inflation, disciplined fiscal management, and an improving trade balance to support gradual strengthening of the rand over the coming months.

As global investors continue to seek diversification in emerging markets, South Africa’s robust institutions, vibrant stock exchange, and expanding renewable energy investments position the country as an attractive destination for sustainable growth.

Overall, while the rand faced short-term pressure this week, its resilience in the face of a stronger dollar underscores the strength of South Africa’s underlying fundamentals.

With inflation expected to remain stable and key sectors poised for recovery, the outlook for Africa’s most industrialized economy remains positive — signaling confidence, continuity, and the promise of renewed growth ahead.

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NDB, which has previously raised funds in Chinese yuan and South African rand, is in advanced stages of discussions with the Indian central bank for its debut rupee issuance, the sources said.

It will look to raise between $400 million and $500 million through 3-5 year bonds in the first tranche, one of the sources said.

The plan comes at a time when China and India are both pushing for greater international acceptance of their currencies and as investors are seeking to diversify their assets beyond developed markets.

Earlier this week, China rolled out measures to support the development of yuan bonds in Hong Kong and, over the past few months, the Indian central bank has announced steps to allow wider investment options for foreign funds held in Indian bank accounts.

Details of the bond issuance have not been previously reported. It could not be ascertained if NDB has appointed bankers to the issue.

A spokesperson for the Reserve Bank of India did not respond to a request for comment. The sources declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

“NDB is working with the government of India and regulators to explore raising funds in the local markets to provide local currency finance for Indian projects,” Monale Ratsoma, the bank’s Chief Financial Officer, said in response to Reuters queries. He declined to share details on the issuance.

Final approvals for the issue are pending with the Reserve Bank of India, two other sources familiar with the conversations said. It is not clear if all government approvals have been received.

An email sent to a government spokesperson was not immediately answered.

NDB had been planning to tap the Indian rupee bond market two years ago but two of the three sources said issuance was delayed as approvals from the government and central bank did not materialise then.

Five-year Strategy

Multilateral agencies such as the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation have previously issued rupee-denominated bonds in the overseas and local markets, drawing strong investor interest.

Established in 2015 by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the NDB has raised about a third of its $11 billion bond issues in local currencies, primarily the yuan and South African rand, with plans to expand into other member currencies.

NDB has targeted to provide 30% of its total financing commitments over the five-year strategy period in national currencies of member countries, the bank stated in its strategy report for 2022-26.

Issuing the bonds in the Indian market will add to the liquidity and diversity of the local bond market, said one of the sources quoted above. The onshore market has more depth and will help in better price discovery, this person added.

“The issue will draw interest from a segment of investors particularly those focused on emerging markets and interested in the de-dollarisation trend, said Vivek Rajpal, Asia strategist at investment advisory firm JB Drax Honore, adding that it can also be seen as a step in the direction of rupee internationalisation.