The scheme would provide government-backed guarantees to banks for lending over a four-year period, mirroring measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic to sustain credit flow to stressed sectors.

The guarantees are expected to cover up to 90% of loans of up to 1 billion rupees ($10.75 million), the sources said.The fiscal cost of the plan is estimated at 170 billion to 180 billion rupees ($1.83 billion to $1.94 billion), according to the sources, who declined to be identified as discussions are ongoing.

Indian businesses, including textile and glass manufacturers, have been affected by supply disruptions linked to the war involving Iran, while rising energy prices have added to cost pressures.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India remains particularly exposed to volatility stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments.The government is also grappling with broader macroeconomic risks, including the prospect of higher inflation and slower growth as fuel costs rise and supply chains tighten.

The proposed guarantees are intended to encourage banks to continue lending despite heightened risks, ensuring businesses can meet obligations and sustain operations during the crisis.

India deployed a similar credit guarantee programme in 2020 to support sectors such as travel and tourism during the pandemic, helping firms resume operations and manage debt burdens.

Farmers in India’s northern grain belt are increasingly worried that a distant conflict in the Gulf could disrupt fertiliser supplies and threaten crop yields, as tensions linked to the closure of a key maritime route reverberate through global commodity markets.

In Punjab, a state central to India’s wheat and rice production, growers say uncertainty over input availability has begun to overshadow routine agricultural planning. Gurvinder Singh, a 52-year-old farmer, said concerns over fertiliser access have intensified in recent weeks as global supply chains face strain.

“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

”Singh’s remarks reflect broader anxieties among farmers who rely heavily on imported fertiliser components, many of which are linked to energy markets and international shipping routes. India is one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, and any disruption in supply can have immediate implications for crop productivity.

The concerns follow Iran’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments, in response to strikes by the United States and Israel. The disruption has triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects across industries dependent on fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based variants, are closely tied to natural gas prices, making them vulnerable to energy supply shocks. Analysts say any sustained increase in fuel costs or shipping disruptions could raise input prices or delay deliveries, affecting farmers during key planting cycles.

In Punjab, often referred to as India’s breadbasket, agriculture remains the primary source of income for millions. Farmers typically follow a rotation of wheat and rice crops, with fertiliser use playing a crucial role in maintaining yields. Any reduction in application due to shortages or high costs could directly impact output.

“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” Singh said, underscoring the sense of vulnerability among rural communities despite their geographic distance from the conflict.

The potential for supply disruptions comes at a time when many farmers are already facing margin pressures from fluctuating crop prices and rising input costs. Industry observers note that even short-term shortages can have lasting consequences, particularly if they coincide with critical stages of crop development.

India imports a significant portion of its fertiliser requirements, including key raw materials such as potash and phosphates. Supply chains for these inputs are globally integrated, often passing through major shipping routes in the Middle East. Any bottleneck in transit can lead to delays and price spikes in domestic markets.

Government officials have in the past taken steps to secure fertiliser supplies through strategic reserves and international agreements. However, traders say prolonged disruption in maritime logistics could test these buffers, especially if global competition for limited supplies intensifies.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures. Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across sectors, feeding into food prices and complicating economic management.

For farmers like Singh, the uncertainty is immediate and personal. With planting decisions already underway, the availability and affordability of fertilisers will be a key determinant of the upcoming harvest.

As global markets react to developments in the Gulf, the impact is being felt far beyond the region, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern supply chains.

For India’s agricultural heartland, the stakes are tied not only to international diplomacy but also to the livelihoods of millions who depend on stable inputs to sustain production.

Tokyo — Business sentiment among Japanese firms improved in the three months to March while corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, strengthening the case for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, even as escalating fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict darken the economic outlook.

The central bank’s quarterly “tankan” survey indicated that large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +17 in March, slightly above market forecasts of +16 and up from +16 in December, marking its highest level since December 2021.

The improvement extended a fourth consecutive quarter of gains, suggesting that parts of Japan’s industrial sector have continued to recover despite mounting global uncertainties.

Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained robust, with the index holding steady at +36, surpassing a median market forecast of +33. The strength in the services sector was supported by rising profits from price increases and a continued recovery in inbound tourism, according to the survey data.

A Bank of Japan official said resilient demand for artificial intelligence-related semiconductors and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy helped offset pressures from higher input costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the same time, the survey highlighted growing inflationary pressures within the corporate sector. Companies reported rising expectations for future price increases, reflecting the impact of higher fuel and raw material costs.

Analysts said this trend could provide additional justification for the central bank to move toward policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose monetary settings.Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, said the survey underscored mounting inflation risks driven by external shocks.

She noted that companies facing surging energy costs may increasingly pass those expenses on to consumers, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.The data comes at a critical juncture for the Bank of Japan, which is weighing whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.

Market participants have been closely monitoring the tankan survey as a key gauge of corporate sentiment and investment plans.Despite the relatively upbeat current conditions, the survey revealed growing caution among firms about the near-term outlook.

Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, reflecting concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has driven up global fuel costs, increasing operational expenses for Japanese companies that rely heavily on imported energy. The resulting squeeze on margins is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly for industries with limited pricing power.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the strength of the survey could still encourage policymakers to act. He noted that firms appeared to be absorbing the energy shock for now, suggesting that underlying economic conditions remain stable enough to support a rate hike in the near term.

Capital expenditure plans among large firms also pointed to cautious optimism. Companies expect to increase investment by 3.3% in the fiscal year 2026, exceeding a median market forecast of a 3.0% rise.

The planned increase suggests that firms are continuing to invest in growth despite heightened uncertainty.The survey period, which ran from February 26 to March 31, captured responses from roughly 70% of firms by March 12, shortly after the escalation of hostilities involving the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28.

This timing indicates that early assessments of the conflict’s economic impact are already being reflected in corporate sentiment.Economists cautioned that the positive momentum seen in the survey may not be sustained if external conditions worsen.

Stefan Angrick said that while a weak yen and subdued wage growth have supported corporate margins, broader economic challenges remain.He noted that export growth could weaken amid slowing global demand, while domestic consumption may remain constrained by modest income gains.

Over time, these factors could weigh on corporate profits and sentiment, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.The survey underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate between emerging inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.

While improving sentiment and rising prices strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy, the uncertain global environment, particularly developments in the Middle East, continues to pose significant challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy.

The Nifty 50 gained 1.56% to close at 22,679.40, while the BSE Sensex advanced 1.65% to 73,134.32, marking a strong start to the new fiscal year after steep losses in March.Fourteen of the 16 major sectors ended higher, with broader markets outperforming.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 3.3% and the Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 2.2%, reflecting renewed risk appetite among investors.Global equities also surged, with Asian markets posting their biggest one-day gain since November 2022 and Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 rising 2.1%, as easing geopolitical concerns buoyed sentiment.

Oil prices retreated, with Brent crude falling to around $103 per barrel after remarks by Donald Trump indicated a potential exit from the Iran conflict. Investors are now awaiting further updates in a scheduled address on Thursday.

“The markets are at levels where opportunities may emerge across sectors, though risks remain,” said Prateek Agrawal.

Indian equities had declined sharply in March, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex falling more than 11% each, their steepest monthly losses in six years, as foreign investors pulled out a record $12.7 billion amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysts said a resolution to the Middle East conflict could support the rupee and revive foreign portfolio inflows, reversing the trend seen in March after earlier buying in February.

Gains on Wednesday came despite higher domestic fuel prices, with retailers raising rates for jet fuel and commercial liquefied petroleum gas.

Shares of companies in sectors such as fertilisers, restaurants, tourism and rice exports led the advance as optimism over easing global risks outweighed cost concerns.

The UK government has said expanding oil and gas drilling in the North Sea would increase exposure to volatile global energy markets, as political divisions intensify over the country’s long-term energy strategy.

Energy secretary Ed Miliband told Labour MPs that continued reliance on fossil fuels leaves the UK vulnerable to external price shocks. He argued that recent geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran, have reinforced the risks associated with global gas markets.

Miliband said the central lesson from recent crises was that countries dependent on fossil fuel imports remain “price takers not price makers,” and therefore exposed to fluctuations beyond their control. He added that accelerating the transition to domestically generated clean power is essential for achieving what he described as “energy sovereignty” and strengthening national security.

Energy minister Michael Shanks echoed this position, stating that the UK must reduce its exposure to fossil fuels to prevent households from bearing the cost of international disruptions. He said previous price shocks had already demonstrated the economic risks tied to dependence on gas markets.

The government’s stance has been challenged by opposition parties and some Labour MPs, who argue that domestic oil and gas production remains critical for energy security and economic growth.

The Conservative Party is expected to use a parliamentary debate to call for the removal of restrictions on new North Sea drilling. Its proposals include scrapping the windfall tax on oil and gas companies, lifting the ban on new exploration licences, and approving projects such as the Rosebank oil field and the Jackdaw gas field.

Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho said increasing domestic gas production would help meet national demand and reduce reliance on imports. She argued that failing to develop available resources during a period of supply instability would undermine energy security.Within the Labour Party, dissent has also emerged.

MP Henry Tufnell called for a reassessment of the current policy, suggesting that renewed drilling could support economic activity, reduce unemployment in industrial regions and limit the offshoring of carbon emissions. However, other Labour MPs indicated that there was limited support for reversing the party’s existing commitments.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to outline measures aimed at mitigating the impact of rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. These include proposals to protect consumers from higher bills driven by disruptions in global oil and gas markets.

Reeves is also expected to introduce a framework to address potential profiteering, particularly in the retail fuel sector. The measures are intended to prevent excessive price increases in response to international events, including recent military activity involving Iran and its regional counterparts.

Miliband defended the continuation of the windfall tax on energy companies, stating that it has generated approximately £12 billion in revenue since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. He argued that removing the levy would primarily benefit corporate profits while reducing the government’s capacity to support households facing higher energy costs.

The government has positioned investment in clean and nuclear energy as a central component of its long-term strategy. Officials say reducing reliance on fossil fuels will help stabilise energy prices and insulate the economy from external shocks.

Reeves is expected to confirm that recommendations from the Fingleton review, aimed at accelerating nuclear power development, will be implemented through legislation. These reforms are intended to streamline project approvals and reduce delays linked to legal challenges.

The government is also considering mechanisms to provide indemnities for critical energy infrastructure projects, allowing them to proceed more quickly in the face of litigation. This approach is designed to address longstanding barriers to large-scale energy development.

According to a government spokesperson, the strategy includes £120 billion in public investment across energy infrastructure, including support for the Sizewell C nuclear plant and the development of small modular reactors in north Wales. These projects are intended to expand domestic energy capacity and reduce exposure to imported fuels.

Ministers argue that prioritising domestically controlled energy sources will enhance resilience against future crises while supporting economic stability.

The debate over North Sea drilling highlights a broader policy divide between short-term supply measures and long-term structural transition within the UK’s energy system.

The benchmark Nifty 50 climbed 1.6% to 23,277.50, while the BSE Sensex gained 1.53% to 75,212.07 as of 9:50 a.m. IST, putting markets on track for a second straight day of advances.

Market sentiment improved after reports that Washington has proposed a month-long ceasefire and presented Tehran with a 15-point framework aimed at de-escalating the conflict.

The development raised expectations of reduced geopolitical risk, particularly around global energy supply disruptions.The conflict has unsettled financial markets in recent weeks, with concerns over oil supply routes and inflationary pressures weighing on investor confidence.

Markets track global cuesIndian equities, which are sensitive to global risk sentiment and crude price movements, reacted positively to signs of potential diplomatic progress.

A de-escalation could help stabilise energy prices, a key factor for India as a major oil importer.

Gains in domestic markets reflect broader optimism that easing tensions may reduce volatility across emerging markets, which have been under pressure amid the ongoing conflict.

The planned aid comes as households face mounting pressure from higher fuel and electricity prices driven by geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.

Earlier this month, the government introduced a three-month cap on profit margins for fuel retailers and a range of supermarket goods in an effort to curb profiteering and contain inflationary pressures.

The measures target both energy-linked products and essential consumer items, reflecting concerns that supply disruptions tied to the conflict could feed through into broader price increases.

Greece, like many energy-importing economies, remains exposed to volatility in international fuel markets.

The government’s intervention signals an effort to balance market stability with consumer protection as the conflict’s economic impact deepens.Further details of the aid package were not immediately disclosed.

Market sentiment was further supported by expectations of stronger fourth quarter corporate results, improving liquidity conditions, and cautious optimism around oil price stability, all of which helped lift buying interest across banking and blue chip stocks.

The benchmark Saudi index advanced for a third straight session, led by gains in major lenders such as Al Rajhi Bank, as traders reacted positively to signals of regulatory easing and the potential for increased foreign capital inflows.

Analysts noted that the anticipated market opening could improve valuation depth, broaden investor participation, and enhance Saudi Arabia’s standing among emerging markets, even as concerns remain about global volatility and regional geopolitical risks.

Oil prices also played a supportive role, rebounding sharply in recent sessions amid heightened geopolitical pressure on Iran and supply related concerns, which helped reinforce confidence in energy linked revenues across the Gulf.

Despite this support, market participants remain selective, closely watching whether crude prices can sustain their recovery and continue to provide a stable earnings backdrop for listed companies.

In contrast, Qatar’s stock market edged lower as investors opted to lock in profits, with selling pressure seen across all major constituents including leading banking stocks.

Cautious sentiment persists in the Qatari market as investors weigh earnings prospects against regional uncertainty and the broader risk environment.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s equity market continued its strong upward momentum, with the main index touching a new record high supported by gains in real estate and diversified conglomerates.

The rally reflects sustained domestic investor interest, improving confidence in economic reforms, and expectations of resilient corporate performance despite global headwinds.