The Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) said its analysis of satellite imagery and open-source data showed activity “consistent with military assistance” to the RSF at a base in Asosa, in Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz region, between late December 2025 and late March 2026.The RSF has been engaged in a conflict with Sudan’s army since April 2023.

Sudan’s military had previously accused Ethiopia of allowing drone attacks to be launched from its territory, an allegation Addis Ababa has denied, along with claims it hosts RSF camps.

According to the HRL report, researchers identified repeated arrivals of commercial car carriers at the Asosa base unloading “technicals,” light pickup trucks commonly used by armed groups.

These vehicles were later observed supplying RSF units operating in Sudan’s Blue Nile state.The report said some vehicles were subsequently fitted with mounts capable of carrying heavy machine guns, while objects consistent with .50-calibre weapons were also detected nearby.

Similar vehicles later appeared in open-source imagery from fighting around Al-Kurmuk, a strategic border town approximately 100 km from Asosa.HRL also documented increased logistical activity at the base, including the arrival of shipping containers, fuel tanks and tents capable of housing up to 150 personnel.

Satellite imagery showed expansion at Asosa airport, including a new hangar, concrete pad and defensive positions. The site had previously been used as a drone base.

The findings come as fighting intensifies in Blue Nile state, where an estimated 28,000 people have been displaced this year, including more than 10,000 from Al-Kurmuk alone.

Control of the region remains divided between Sudan’s army and RSF-aligned forces from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu.

The Horn-of-Africa nation is turning to renewable energy to boost electricity coverage, which stood at 50% of the population in 2020 according to the World Bank, leaving 60 million people outside of the grid.

The Aysha wind farm will be located on 18,000 acres of land, the ministry said in a statement, and it will create 2,000 jobs during the construction and operational phases.

Dubai-based AMEA Power focuses on renewable energy projects across Africa, the Middle East and other emerging markets.

Ethiopia already hosts two smaller wind power projects in its Oromiya and Tigray regions. The Aysha project will be Ethiopia’s biggest wind power generation plant when it is completed, the finance ministry said.

The negotiations come more than six months after a first round of discussions between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Ethiopia’s government ended without an agreement.

The conflict in recent years has killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of thousands in Ethiopia’s most populous region.

“We remain committed to finding a peaceful political settlement,” the OLA said in its statement.

The OLA said it had delayed announcing the negotiations to make sure its team could get safely from what it called the frontlines in Oromiya to the venue.

An official close to the mediators, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the talks started last week in Tanzania’s commercial capital, Dar es Salaam, and is being facilitated by the regional Africa group IGAD.

Ethiopia’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The OLA is an outlawed splinter group of the Oromo Liberation Front, a formerly banned opposition party that returned from exile after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – himself an Oromo – took office in 2018.

Oromiya, which surrounds Addis Ababa, the capital, is home to Ethiopia’s largest ethnic Oromo group and more than a third of the country’s 110 million people.

The talks come as conflict rages on another faultline in Ethiopia, with fighting between the army and the Fano militia group in the mediaeval holy city of Lalibela last week, residents told Reuters. The government said the area was peaceful.

While Fano has no formal command structure, the part-time militia in northern Amhara region has been battling the army since late July, emerging as the biggest security challenge to Abiy since a war ended in the northern Tigray region a year ago.

Ethiopia’s chief negotiator, Seleshi Bekele, acknowledged that constructive ideas were exchanged on various outstanding issues during the talks. He emphasized Ethiopia’s commitment to continuing the negotiations despite the lack of a breakthrough. However, Egypt’s water ministry placed blame on Ethiopia, accusing it of being “opposed to any compromise.” Egypt expressed concerns over the failure to reach an agreement, emphasizing the need to protect its water security and national interests.

Discussions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have been ongoing for years. The controversial $4.6 billion project, which began construction in 2011, aims to generate over 6,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling Ethiopia’s current output and potentially making it a net energy exporter. Ethiopia considers the dam vital for its development, while downstream Egypt, with a population of 100 million, fears that it will reduce its share of the Nile water, which is crucial for its water needs.

Approximately 85 percent of the Nile River’s flow originates from the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. However, under decades-old agreements dating back to the British colonial era, Egypt has received the majority of the Nile’s waters. Sudan, also downstream from the Blue Nile, has sought a deal to regulate the amount of water Ethiopia will release during significant droughts.

Negotiations recommenced in August after a long hiatus, with Ethiopia and Egypt aiming to reach a deal by November. Earlier this month, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the completion of the final phase of filling the dam’s reservoir.

During the United Nations General Assembly, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry expressed concerns about Egypt’s water scarcity issues and criticized Ethiopia for beginning construction without consulting other Nile states. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen, in his UN address, asserted that the dam represents the legitimate development aspirations of Ethiopians and emphasized its potential to enhance regional integration and prosperity.

On Monday, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry acknowledged the legitimacy of concerns raised by Egypt and Sudan but underscored the need to protect Ethiopia’s rights in the matter.

The failure to reach an agreement in the latest talks raises concerns about the ongoing dispute over the GERD and highlights the pressing need for further negotiations to find a mutually acceptable resolution. The Nile River’s waters are vital for the economic and social well-being of the countries involved, and a comprehensive agreement is crucial to ensuring stability and cooperation in the region.

Mogadishu (AP) — Scores of Somalis fleeing violence in Sudan arrived in their Horn of Africa nation on Sunday, an official said.

Some 148 Somali nationals, mostly students, arrived by plane in the capital Mogadishu, said Abdurahman Nur Mohamed Diinaari, a top official with the Somali foreign ministry.

“Through the assistance of the International Organization for Migration, Somalia’s foreign ministry has finally been able to relocate 148 Somalis from Sudan to Somalia today,” he said.

The Somalis had traveled by land from Sudan to Ethiopia and then onward by air to Somalia. Forty-five of those who arrived Sunday were later transported to Garowe, the administrative capital of the Somali state of Puntland, Diinaari said.

Somalia itself has been plagued by violence for years. The Islamic extremist group al-Shabab, which opposes the federal government, frequently launches deadly attacks in Mogadishu and other parts of the country.

One of the Somalis evacuated on Sunday said in an interview that she was happy to be alive and back in her country.

“I am pleased that I have finally arrived in my country. However, what we have been through is unusual and hard to describe, but I am grateful for the opportunity to survive,” Ramlo Mohamed, one of the evacuees, told AP. “I pray in the meantime for God to assist our Muslim brothers in Sudan in alleviating their plight.”

There were an estimated 7,000 Somali nationals in Sudan before violence broke out earlier this month, most of them attending universities there. Others are business people and migrants hoping to reach Europe, according to Ewa Naqvi, deputy chief of mission of the U.N. migration agency.

The fighting in Sudan pits the army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, against Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, the head of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces. Some of the deadliest battles have raged across Khartoum, the capital.

Ordinary Sudanese have been caught in the crossfire. Tens of thousands have fled to neighboring countries, including Chad and Egypt, while others remain pinned down with dwindling supplies. Thousands of foreigners have been evacuated in airlifts and land convoys.

The Sudan Doctors’ Syndicate, which monitors casualties in the violence, said Sunday that over the past two weeks 425 civilians were killed and 2,091 wounded. The Sudanese Health Ministry on Saturday put the overall death toll, including fighters, at 528, with 4,500 wounded.

Tigray (AFP) — Authorities in Ethiopia’s rebel-held Tigray region announced Sunday they would respect a ceasefire as fighting intensified in the country’s war-torn north, and the African Union called for an immediate truce.

Dalia Ziada

Adding the religious component to this ugly dispute is a very dangerous gamble that the Ethiopian government need to stop playing.

The Ethiopian government is purposefully involving religious rhetoric into justifying its technical dispute over the Nile River with Egypt and Sudan. The reasons why Abiy Ahmed government decided to Islamize the Nile River conflict, by employing government loyalist Muslim imams to promote a political agenda, in a Christian majority society, are worth exploring.

For years, the Ethiopian government of Abiy Ahmed has been promoting the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a nationalist cause. The government’s unrealistic rhetoric around the political and economic benefits that GERD may incur to the Ethiopian nation is serving the political interests of the ruling elite. On one hand, it justifies the huge spending on the building of the dam, while the Ethiopian people are struggling with a drowning economy. On the other hand, it provides Abiy Ahmed with a cover to his atrocities against civilians in Tigray and his failure in managing the border conflict with Sudan. In addition, this fanatic nationalist rhetoric is serving the purpose of mobilizing the Ethiopian citizens to vote for Abiy Ahmed and his affiliate politicians, in the current general elections, despite their proven failure in running state affairs and Ethiopia’s deteriorating relations with its neighbors.

Unfortunately, the diplomatic negotiations over the Nile River conflict between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, which has been running for over a decade, hit a deadlock in April. Egypt is the downstream country, while Ethiopia is geographically located where the river springs, and Sudan geographically stands in the Middle. Egypt and Sudan object the building of GERD on the Blue Nile because it affects their share in the water of the river. Government propagandists, in the Ethiopian media, unfairly portray Egypt as an aggressor on Ethiopia’s sovereignty for merely trying to get Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement that protects downstream countries from the potential abuse of GERD by the current or future Ethiopian governments.

For the international audience, Ethiopia justifies the building of the dam by the need to generate electricity for about 65% of the population. For the local audience, the Ethiopian government promotes a strange lie, supported by religious leaders, that the Nile is a gift from God to Ethiopia, and thus Ethiopia is the legitimate solo owner of the Nile. In that sense, they claim that Ethiopia can hold the water behind a dam to sell it later to other countries and become rich, the same way Arab Gulf countries profited from selling the oil discovered in their geographic territories.

After the failure of negotiations in April, Egypt and Sudan started to seriously think about going to war with Ethiopia. In March, Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with Sudan, followed by a joint military exercise at Merwoe military base, in southern Sudan, close to Ethiopian GERD. In late May, Egypt and Sudan conducted another military exercise, in southern Sudan, under the title “Nile Protectors” wherein Egypt deployed land forces and advanced aviation equipment to deter Ethiopia from resuming with filling the dam, which was scheduled to take place, in early June. Meanwhile, Egypt signed other military cooperation agreements with Uganda, Kenya, and Burundi.

Amidst the heated political and military tensions, leaders of the Ethiopian Muslim community, have been actively producing fatwas (religious advices) to mobilize the Muslim citizens to support the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In March, Sheikh Haji Omar Idris, the Grand Mufti of Ethiopia, made up a fatwa claiming that Ethiopia is the God-assigned owner of the Nile water, and accordingly Egypt has no right to ask for using the water that springs outside of its geographic area.

“The Egyptians say that they are affected by Ethiopia’s use of the Nile water. This is not fair and is against the teachings of Islamic Sharia”, advised Sheikh Haji Omar Idris, the Grand Mufti of Ethiopia and the President of the Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council. “Sharia has proven that the country in which the water springs, must benefit from it, then give what exceeds its needs to its neighbors, if it desires to”. During the prayers of Eid Al-Fitr, in May, several Ethiopian youths showed up carrying slogans and banners reading that it is Ethiopia’s Allah-given right to block and sell the water of the Nile.

Idris based his misleading fatwa on a saying by Prophet Muhammed. However, the Egyptian Fatwa House (Dar Al-Iftaa), in May, refuted such claims and published a prophetic saying confirming that naturally flowing water cannot be owned by anyone, as it is a common share among all humans. Then, on June 12th, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, Dr. Ahmed Al-Tayeb, seized the opportunity of his participation in the United Nations Environment Day, to indirectly comment on the Nile River conflict.

“Environment is in crisis, because of those tampering with Allah’s creations and lands… It is inappropriate to let an individual or a country practice monopoly over natural resources and deprive others from getting access to these resources”, said the Grand Imam in his UN speech. “Water, in its comprehensive concept, is a natural resource that is treated as a common property to all humans, according to the teachings of all religions, not only Islam. No one can exclusively own a water resource. Depriving others from benefiting from natural resources is an act of oppression and aggression on Allah’s provisions”, Sheikh Ahmed Al-Tayeb added, calling upon respective local, regional, and international bodies to appropriately intervene to stop such manipulation that is expected to harm humans and the Planet Earth.

Al-Azhar is the highest religious authority in the Muslim world. While the Grand Imam’s message was widely applauded by the Egyptian and Arab audience, some western audience could not understand the background story that pushed a senior religious scholar to comment on a geopolitical conflict. In fact, Al-Azhar’s comment is a necessary reaction to the shameful abuse of religion by the Ethiopian government to justify endangering the lives of tens of millions of humans in downstream countries by building a dam on the upstream of the Blue Nile.

It is strange to see the Ethiopian Muslim leaders, who have always been keeping a low-profile, all of a sudden involved in public activities and commenting on geopolitical issues. But there is a reason for that. They are paying back the favor to Abiy Ahmed. For decades, the Muslim citizens in Ethiopia suffered from marginalization, discrimination, and persecution on the hands of the government and other religious groups, especially during the communist era of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Ethiopian Muslims have been denied basic rights to declare their religious identity or practice their religious ceremonies and prayers in public. That is despite their relatively large percentage as a religious group. Muslims in Ethiopia, who represent nearly 35% of the population; are the second-largest religious community in the country.

Only in January 2020, Abiy Ahmed government recognized the Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council, after sixty years of working as an outlawed civil society organization. This provided Muslim citizens with a relief as they have become free to show their identity and celebrate their religion. This is a move that Abiy Ahmed government should be applauded for. However, on the flip side, it seems that Abiy Ahmed had another strategic goal from empowering the Muslim community amidst his quest to continue with the GERD project.

Recognizing and empowering the Muslim community, first brought the Muslim community to support Abiy Ahmed rather than joining the opposition against him. They are now part of his propaganda machine, mobilizing millions of Muslim citizens to support the government decisions and vote for Abiy Ahmed’s favorite politicians in elections. Second, Abiy Ahmed is employing the politicized religious rhetoric of his Imams to confuse the public citizens in Muslim-majority countries, Egypt and Sudan, regarding the legitimacy of the stances of their governments on the Nile conflict. Most of the misleading fatwas issued by Ethiopian Imams, in relation to GERD, are published in Arabic; not in English or Swahili or Amharic.

The Nile River conflict has become too complicated and almost impossible to resolve through regular diplomatic means. Adding the religious component to this ugly dispute is a very dangerous gamble that the Ethiopian government need to stop playing. This does not only threaten the security of Ethiopia, but also provides a new tool for terrorist organizations operating at the already security-fragile Horn of Africa region, to revive their activities and recruit new supporters.

Article first published on Majalla.

Egypt and Sudan demand a legally binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation, whereas Ethiopia insists on guidelines.

The river Nile is one of the longest rivers in the world which travels the distance of 6,000 Kilometers through dozens of East African countries to empty into the Mediterranean Sea. 

River Nile is an essential source of water and electricity of several countries in East Africa. 

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The tension between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia began with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in 2011. GERD will be the largest hydroelectric power plant project in the Africa when completed with the capacity of generating 6,400 megawatts of electricity, its primary purpose is to produce electricity to deal with the electricity shortage in Ethiopia and to export electricity to the neighboring countries. 

However, Egypt and Sudan claim that the filling of the Dam would violate their water rights as it’s going to cause water shortage for them, as they are heavily dependent on the river Nile for cultivating crops and other essential uses. Egypt gets almost 90% of its fresh water from River Nile, hence the Dam is considered an existential threat to the Egypt, while Sudan is concerned about the operation of its own Nile dam and water stations. 

On the 6^th of July, Egyptian authorities said it has received an official notice from Ethiopia that it has started the next phase of filling the Dam raising tensions once again between the three countries. Ethiopian authorities had said previously that they would resume the filling in the month of July and August at the times of heavy rainfalls. “The next filling takes place only during heavy rainfall months of July/August”, said Abiy Ahmed Ali, the prime minister of the federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee at the parliament Karim Darwish said, “Ethiopia’s second filling of the Renaissance Dam threatens international peace and security”, said Karim Darwish Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee at the parliament.

Issue of Egyptian and Sudanese National Security

“Egypt has always emphasized its keenness to achieve development in Ethiopia without harming Egypt and Sudan’s water rights, which is something that can be achieved if there are intentions and responsibility”, He added.

The Head of Foreign Affairs of the Representatives concluded his statements that the Egyptian political leadership has repeatedly stressed that “the Egyptian rights will not be diminished or harmed, and that the water issue is an issue of both Egyptian and Sudanese national security”.

Whereas Ethiopia claims that the filling of the Dam will not only help Ethiopia to deal with its electricity problems but also to help Sudan prevent floods. “Heavy rains last year enabled successful 1st filling of the GERD while the presence of the GERD itself has undoubtedly prevented severe flooding in neighbouring Sudan”, said Abiy Ahmed Ali, the prime minister of the federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in his tweet.

“Ethiopia, in developing Abbay River for its needs, has no intention of causing harm to lower riparian countries”, he added in his tweet. 

Ethiopia has continued with the filling of the dam twice this summer now without the deal in the UN security Council. According to the Reuters, Ethiopia isn’t keen on security council involvement and instead asked the involved authorities to discuss the issue within the African Union. Reuters also added that Ethiopia previously rejected calls from Egypt and Sudan to involve mediators outside African Union. 

Egypt and Sudan demand a legally binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation, whereas Ethiopia insists on guidelines. The concerns of the countries involve how much water will Ethiopia release downstream if a multiyear drought occurs, how would they settle any future disputes, and Sudan asks Ethiopia to coordinate and share the data on the dam’s operation so that in case of emergency it could protect its own power-generating dams on the Blue Nile. 

Saudi Arabia’s support for Egypt

Amidst the heightened tensions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expressed their support with the Egypt and Sudan, the statement said, “The Kingdom calls on the international community to intensify efforts to find a clear mechanism to start negotiations between the three countries to get out of the crisis, in line with their interests and the interests of the Nile Basim countries and the future of the people of the region, according to international auspices and in agreement with the African Union and the Arab League”.

Ahead of the UN Security Council meeting on Thursday, Tunisia has reportedly submitted a draft resolution for Ethiopia to halt its filling of a dam. The document is aimed to push for a binding agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the operations of the dam.  

A senior Ethiopian diplomat told Reuters that the draft resolution would “effectively scuttle” an African Union-led mediation process between the three countries, and Ethiopia was working to make sure that it would not be adopted. 

“Ethiopia does not believe the matter falls within the purview of the council”, he added on the condition of anonymity. 

Jaafar Siddiqui earned Bachelors in Journalism from the University of Hertfordshire — United Kingdom. He writes for The Milli Chronicle on Business, Politics, and Culture.