The benchmark KOSPI index has recovered nearly all of last month’s 19% decline, regaining momentum after being one of the world’s top-performing major indices last year. The rebound has been supported by renewed foreign inflows, with $4.2 billion returning to equities in April after record outflows of $23.8 billion in March, according to LSEG data.

Investor interest has been driven in part by the global surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory used in data centres, benefiting major South Korean chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics. Market participants said the March correction created attractive entry points, prompting portfolio reallocations into Korean technology stocks.

“We’re cautiously optimistic, but we think it’s a megatrend,” said Isaac Thong, senior investment director for Asian equities at Aberdeen Investments, referring to the long-term growth potential of AI-linked semiconductor demand.Despite the recovery, the recent market turmoil has exposed structural vulnerabilities.

South Korea’s equity market remains heavily concentrated in a small number of AI-linked firms, amplifying swings during periods of global uncertainty. Since the onset of the Iran war, the KOSPI has experienced sharp daily fluctuations, including declines of up to 12% and gains of 9%, outpacing volatility seen in other Asian and U.S. markets.

The South Korean won has remained near 17-year lows against the U.S. dollar, increasing the cost of energy imports and complicating policy responses. Authorities face a balancing act as measures to support growth risk fuelling inflation, particularly in an economy highly dependent on imported energy.

Government efforts to address the so-called “Korea discount” through corporate governance reforms have begun to attract activist investors, aiming to narrow valuation gaps linked to longstanding concerns over transparency and shareholder rights within family-run conglomerates.While equities have been volatile, South Korea’s bond market has shown resilience.

Companies raised $74.7 billion in the first quarter, maintaining strong issuance levels, while the benchmark 10-year government bond yield has declined this month to its lowest level since February.

Prospects for sovereign debt have improved further with anticipated inclusion in FTSE’s World Government Bond Index, prompting early inflows from major institutional investors including Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, alongside interest from global asset managers such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Principal Global Investors.

Analysts estimate that index inclusion could drive between $50 billion and $70 billion in passive fund inflows, reinforcing demand for Korean bonds even as equity markets remain sensitive to external shocks.

However, continued weakness in the won remains a key concern for global investors, with capital outflows and safe-haven demand for the dollar keeping the currency near levels last seen during past financial crises.

Authorities have responded with verbal interventions and strategic hedging operations by the state pension fund to stabilise the currency.

The selloff follows a sharp rise in global oil prices toward $100 a barrel, intensifying pressure on Thailand, which relies on the Middle East for nearly half of its oil and gas imports, according to Krungsri Research.

Data showed foreign investors were net sellers of $823 million in Thai equities in March, while bond outflows reached $705 million, marking the largest combined outflow since October 2024. The reversal came after a brief resurgence in inflows earlier this year, including $1.7 billion in equity purchases in February.

Investor optimism had been buoyed by the election of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose victory raised expectations of political stability and economic reform.

However, the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February triggered a rapid reassessment of risk.Analysts say Thailand faces a more acute challenge than many regional peers due to its economic structure and policy constraints.

The economy had already been struggling, with growth of 2.4% last year and a prolonged period of deflation that prompted a rate cut by the central bank in February.“The risk remains that higher fuel costs hit consumption and disrupt exports and tourism,” said Daniel Tan, a portfolio manager at Grasshopper Asset Management, highlighting concerns about key growth drivers.

Thailand’s heavy reliance on natural gas, which accounts for more than half of its power generation, adds to its exposure. Rising liquefied natural gas imports are expected to further increase costs as energy markets tighten.

The Thai baht has weakened nearly 3% since the conflict began, though it has recovered some ground following a recent ceasefire. Analysts say the currency is acting as a key adjustment mechanism, helping absorb external shocks.

Market participants also point to limited policy flexibility. With public debt nearing the government’s self-imposed ceiling of 70% of gross domestic product, fiscal space is constrained, while monetary policy faces a trade-off between supporting growth and containing inflation.

“There’s a broad consensus among investors that Thailand is in a policy bind,” said Gary Tan of Allspring Global Investments, noting that the central bank has limited room to tighten or ease policy without adverse consequences.

Inflation, which had been contracting earlier this year, is now projected to rise as much as 3.5% depending on how the conflict evolves, marking a sharp shift in the economic outlook.

While a temporary ceasefire has supported a rebound in Thai equities and the baht, analysts caution that prolonged high energy prices could further weigh on growth, consumption and the external balance.

The Nifty 50 gained 1.56% to close at 22,679.40, while the BSE Sensex advanced 1.65% to 73,134.32, marking a strong start to the new fiscal year after steep losses in March.Fourteen of the 16 major sectors ended higher, with broader markets outperforming.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 3.3% and the Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 2.2%, reflecting renewed risk appetite among investors.Global equities also surged, with Asian markets posting their biggest one-day gain since November 2022 and Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 rising 2.1%, as easing geopolitical concerns buoyed sentiment.

Oil prices retreated, with Brent crude falling to around $103 per barrel after remarks by Donald Trump indicated a potential exit from the Iran conflict. Investors are now awaiting further updates in a scheduled address on Thursday.

“The markets are at levels where opportunities may emerge across sectors, though risks remain,” said Prateek Agrawal.

Indian equities had declined sharply in March, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex falling more than 11% each, their steepest monthly losses in six years, as foreign investors pulled out a record $12.7 billion amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysts said a resolution to the Middle East conflict could support the rupee and revive foreign portfolio inflows, reversing the trend seen in March after earlier buying in February.

Gains on Wednesday came despite higher domestic fuel prices, with retailers raising rates for jet fuel and commercial liquefied petroleum gas.

Shares of companies in sectors such as fertilisers, restaurants, tourism and rice exports led the advance as optimism over easing global risks outweighed cost concerns.

After months of outflows, foreign investors made a confident return to India in October, signaling a powerful shift in sentiment and a vote of confidence in the nation’s economic fundamentals.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) poured over 146 billion rupees into Indian equities, the highest inflow in five months. The majority of this capital—more than 90%—flowed directly into financial and banking stocks, highlighting the sector’s strong earnings outlook and attractive valuations.

Market experts view this as a positive sign that global investors see India as a long-term growth story. The revival of credit growth, coupled with strong quarterly results, has added further strength to the country’s financial institutions.

Top banks like HDFC Bank and Axis Bank reported impressive earnings and improved asset quality. Public sector banks also performed remarkably well, with the index for state-owned lenders jumping nearly 9% in October alone.

This resurgence has not only lifted investor sentiment but also boosted India’s benchmark indices—the Nifty 50 and the Sensex—which both gained more than 4% during the same period. The rally has positioned India’s markets among the best-performing in Asia this quarter.

Fund managers attribute the surge to steady economic growth, disciplined inflation control, and government-backed financial reforms.
India’s financial ecosystem continues to evolve with a blend of traditional banking strength and growing fintech innovation.

Experts believe that as earnings maintain a steady growth rate of 10% to 12%, the inflow of global capital will continue in the coming months. With improving credit conditions and greater lending opportunities, the banking sector stands at the forefront of India’s next phase of expansion.

Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector also contributed to the market’s upward momentum. Driven by strong earnings from industry leaders such as Reliance Industries, this segment recorded over 91 billion rupees in inflows.

The positive outlook reflects a broader confidence in India’s domestic consumption and industrial growth. The festive season further boosted retail and corporate activity, helping companies post higher profits.

While global trade uncertainty remains, India’s valuations remain appealing to foreign investors. Analysts highlight that the current market conditions are among the most attractive in nearly a decade, except for brief pandemic-related dips.

As the rupee stabilizes and inflation stays within manageable levels, India’s capital markets are expected to maintain resilience.
Foreign investors are recognizing the nation’s balanced economic policies and strong corporate governance practices.

The combination of robust financial performance, economic reforms, and growing investor trust is turning India into one of the world’s preferred investment destinations. With momentum building across sectors, the Indian market appears poised for sustainable long-term growth.