In its monthly economic review, the ministry said the disruption of shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical variable shaping India’s external sector and inflation outlook, as geopolitical tensions continue to affect global oil markets.

The report noted that recent increases in fuel prices, combined with rising upstream production costs, are likely to gradually feed into retail inflation through higher transportation, energy and food expenses.
Officials warned that a significant rainfall shortfall during the monsoon season could further intensify inflationary pressures by affecting agricultural output and food supplies. Such a scenario could also weaken rural consumption and weigh on broader economic growth.

“The near-term outlook for the Indian economy is one of cautious resilience,” the ministry said, while emphasizing the need for continued policy vigilance amid multiple external and domestic risks.
The report highlighted a combination of elevated global energy prices, depreciation of the Indian rupee, rising input costs and the possibility of below-normal rainfall as factors that could complicate inflation management in the months ahead.

India remains heavily dependent on imported crude oil, making it particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility stemming from geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Any prolonged disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could increase import costs and widen inflationary pressures across sectors.

Despite these concerns, inflation has remained relatively contained. India’s annual retail inflation rate rose marginally to 3.48% in April, remaining below the target level monitored by the Reserve Bank of India.
The assessment comes as policymakers seek to balance economic growth with price stability amid an uncertain global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility and weather-related risks to agricultural production.

The Finance Ministry publishes its economic review on a monthly basis to assess macroeconomic trends and emerging risks facing the Indian economy.

Farmers across several Sudanese agricultural regions told Reuters that escalating input costs are forcing them to scale back planting plans for key crops, including sorghum, millet, wheat and sesame, undermining production at a time when nearly half the population faces severe food shortages.

Sudan is particularly exposed to disruptions stemming from the regional conflict because it relies on Gulf countries for more than half of its fertilizer imports, according to United Nations data. The country has also become entirely dependent on imported fuel after more than three years of civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The crisis comes as Sudan remains one of the world’s most severe humanitarian emergencies. A UN-backed food security monitor estimates that about 19.5 million people, or more than 40% of the population, are experiencing crisis-level hunger, with some areas facing famine risks.

Sadig Elamin, senior food security analyst for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Sudan, said the regional conflict had compounded existing challenges facing the agricultural sector.

“The regional war has added salt to the wound,” Elamin said, warning that agricultural output could decline by at least 40% if current pressures persist.
Agriculture remains central to Sudan’s economy and livelihoods, with roughly two-thirds of the population dependent on farming. Despite vast agricultural potential that has attracted Gulf investment interest, decades of conflict, underinvestment and mismanagement have constrained productivity.

In the Jamuia agricultural scheme south of Omdurman, farmers had anticipated a recovery after RSF fighters were expelled from areas surrounding Khartoum last year. Instead, they now face fertilizer prices that have risen 67% from a year earlier, while diesel costs used to power irrigation pumps have more than doubled, according to national surveys.

“At that price we don’t make a profit, you spend your whole profit on the diesel,” farmer Bashir Ismail told Reuters.

Omar Al-Ebeid, secretary of the scheme’s farmers’ committee, said only 500 of the project’s 10,000 feddans, equivalent to about 4,200 hectares, had been planted midway through the season.

Farmers also criticized the army-aligned government for failing to provide sufficient support as state resources are increasingly directed toward the war effort.

Mohamed Balla, who heads a farmers’ collective in the Gezira scheme, once responsible for around half of Sudan’s sorghum and wheat production, said damaged infrastructure and rising costs were discouraging cultivation.

“The RSF left in February of last year. Nothing has been fixed since then,” Balla said.

He added that crop prices have remained largely unchanged despite soaring costs for agricultural inputs. “Two sacks of wheat buy you one sack of urea. So we won’t grow it again.”

National cereal production had already fallen by about 25% from pre-war averages, according to FAO estimates. Analysts warn further declines could intensify food shortages and increase reliance on humanitarian assistance.

Sudan’s Agricultural Bank, traditionally a major source of financing for farmers, has also struggled amid the conflict. Farmers say financing terms have become increasingly burdensome, pushing many producers into debt.

The bank’s leadership told Reuters it was seeking to ease pressure on farmers by offering inputs on more favorable repayment terms and extending financing periods.

Fatma Yousif, director of agricultural production at Sudan’s Agriculture Ministry, said authorities were coordinating with the bank to establish a financing fund and examining options to help farmers manage fuel costs. She said efforts were also underway to rehabilitate irrigation infrastructure damaged during the conflict.

In western Sudan, insecurity continues to hamper production in Kordofan and Darfur, regions critical for sesame, peanuts, millet and gum arabic exports.
“There is no funding for farmers, no machinery for planting and plowing the land, and no security because the RSF and other gangs loot the crops and demand money at every checkpoint,” said Mohamed Adam, a farmer displaced from West Kordofan to the army-held city of El Obeid.

Farmers in the region reported widespread looting of tractors and agricultural equipment, recruitment of farm laborers into armed groups, and mass displacement of rural communities, leaving large areas of farmland unprepared for the approaching rainy season.

Khalid Abdellatif, a director at agricultural supplier CTC Group, said transporting farming supplies into conflict-affected areas had become increasingly costly and dangerous, with small-scale farmers bearing the brunt of the disruption.

State-controlled fuel retailers said a litre of petrol in Delhi would now cost 97.77 rupees, while diesel prices rose to 90.67 rupees per litre.The increase follows a sharp rise in international crude prices after disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz triggered supply concerns across global energy markets.

Oil prices surged above $120 per barrel before easing to around $100-$105 as markets assessed the impact of the U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran.Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, which together operate more than 90% of India’s roughly 103,000 fuel stations, typically align retail fuel price revisions simultaneously.

India had remained among the few major economies that had not raised domestic retail fuel prices despite sustained volatility in international crude markets.

The latest adjustment is expected to increase transportation and logistics costs across sectors and could add pressure to inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, where fuel prices have significant downstream effects on food, manufacturing and consumer expenses.

The move also reflects mounting financial strain on state-run fuel retailers, which have absorbed part of the higher import costs in recent months as geopolitical instability disrupted global oil supplies.

India imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements, making the country particularly vulnerable to external energy shocks and disruptions in major maritime trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Indian shares were expected to open cautiously on Friday as higher crude prices and ongoing concerns over shipping risks weighed on investor sentiment.

Economic ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) said they would avoid export bans on essential goods and strengthen regional cooperation on energy, food and supply chains.

Philippine Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said rising oil and transport costs were increasing pressure on food systems and household expenses across the bloc, which relies heavily on imported fuel.

ASEAN also agreed to speed up its regional power grid project and push ratification of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security to enable coordinated emergency fuel-sharing during supply disruptions.

The issue is expected to feature prominently at the 2026 ASEAN Summit in Cebu next week.

UNHCR said aid shipments that once moved from Dubai through the Strait of Hormuz are now being rerouted from Europe around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 25 days in delivery time.

Transport costs for relief shipments from Dubai to Sudan and neighboring Chad have risen from $927,000 to $1.87 million, according to UNHCR spokesperson Carlotta Wolf.

The agency said congestion at Gulf ports, higher fuel prices, rising insurance premiums and truck shortages are worsening the crisis, particularly across Africa.

UNHCR warned that the added costs come as its $8.5 billion global funding appeal remains only 23% funded, limiting support for millions of refugees and displaced people.

India’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.7% in the fiscal year ending March 2027, unchanged from the March forecast in a Reuters poll conducted between April 20 and April 27 among 54 economists. That would mark a slight slowdown from the 7.0% growth estimated for the year ended March 31, 2026.

Forecasts for fiscal 2026-27 ranged from 5.9% to 7.5%, while growth was projected to edge up to 6.8% in 2027-28.Economists said the headline outlook masks deeper strain in the informal economy, where businesses and workers are more vulnerable to higher fuel costs, supply disruptions and weaker demand.

India’s shadow economy has previously accounted for nearly half of official GDP readings, although real-time data on its performance remains limited.In urban areas, which generate roughly 60% of India’s GDP, restaurants and hotels have reportedly shortened operating hours, reduced menus or shifted to alternative fuels such as firewood as conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East affect liquefied petroleum gas supplies.

“The informal segment is the worst hit and its ability to absorb shocks is very low. So we will see a ripple effect on jobs and demand,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. “All of that is going to play out if this problem persists beyond the near term.”India revised its GDP data methodology in recent years to improve the capture of informal sector activity, but economists said gaps remain substantial.

Yes Bank Chief Economist Indranil Pan said the disruption to the informal sector would not be reflected significantly in headline GDP figures.“That’s also the reason why we have not really changed our GDP much at this point in time,” he said.Inflation is expected to average 4.5% this fiscal year, according to the poll, remaining within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2% to 6% target range but more than double last year’s pace.

Despite higher price pressures, economists expect the RBI to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2027, reflecting concerns over balancing inflation control with growth stability.

Analysts said the government has attempted to cushion the impact of higher energy prices by cutting fuel duties, but a prolonged Middle East conflict could strain public finances and force a reallocation of spending away from infrastructure investment toward subsidies.

Capital expenditure has been a key growth driver in recent years amid weak private-sector investment, and any shift away from it could weigh on medium-term expansion.Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealer Ltd, said uncertainty linked to external shocks made a strong recovery in private investment unlikely in the near term.

“If push comes to shove, there could be a situation where a material diversion of funds from capex to subsidies happens,” Vyas said. “Price pressures are imminent and will in the medium term affect the fiscal front.”

Fire Rescue Victoria said crews were called at around 11:15 p.m. local time to the Viva Energy Refinery, where the fire involved liquid fuels and gases and remained uncontrolled as of early Thursday.“All emergency response personnel and Viva employees have been accounted for,” the agency said in a statement, adding there were no reported casualties.

Authorities urged residents in Geelong and surrounding areas to remain indoors and close windows and doors as smoke spread across the region due to shifting winds.The refinery, operated by Viva Energy Group, is one of only two remaining oil refineries in Australia and can process up to 120,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

It supplies more than half of fuel demand in Victoria state and about 10% of Australia’s total fuel consumption.Fire officials said the blaze was contained to the plant, while the company indicated there was no immediate disruption to fuel supplies.

Australia’s Energy Minister Chris Bowen said an investigation would be launched, describing the incident as likely accidental at this stage. He added that while diesel and jet fuel production continued, petrol output could be affected for some time.

The incident comes as Australia faces heightened fuel security concerns linked to disruptions in global energy markets, particularly following tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for international oil shipments.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said last month the government would temporarily cut fuel excise and road user charges to offset rising costs driven by the conflict.

Under a month-long order introduced last week, shops must close by 9:00 p.m. on weekdays and 10:00 p.m. on weekends, with a temporary extension to 11:00 p.m. during the Coptic Easter period. Authorities say the meaaures are necessary as rising global fuel prices drive up Egypt’s energy import bill.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said the country’s monthly energy costs more than doubled between January and March to $2.5 billion, reflecting Egypt’s dependence on imported fuel to meet domestic demand.

The restrictions have sharply altered life in Cairo, a city known for its late-night economy. Streets that typically remain active into the early hours now empty soon after closing time, with police patrols enforcing compliance.Small businesses have been among the hardest hit.

Shopworker Ali Haggag said his clothing store has lost more than half its revenue since the measures took effect, as evening foot traffic a major source of sales —has been curtailed.Economists warn the impact could be widespread in Egypt’s informal sector, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of employment.

Wael el-Nahas said reduced operating hours translate directly into lower incomes for millions of workers dependent on nightly commerce.The crisis has also affected major industries. Cinema operators report steep losses as late-night screenings typically the most profitable have been eliminated.

Film producer Gaby Khoury said box office revenues have fallen by more than 60 percent, prompting delays in releases and production schedules.Tourism, a key source of foreign currency, faces similar pressures.

While high-end hotels and Nile-side venues are exempt, popular attractions in central Cairo, including markets and bazaars, must close early, limiting visitor spending.

Industry officials say the reduction of evening activity risks diminishing the city’s appeal to tourists.The curbs come alongside broader austerity measures introduced in recent weeks, including fuel price increases, reduced public lighting, and expanded remote work policies.

Authorities say the steps are needed to manage fiscal pressures as energy prices surge following the escalation of conflict involving Iran.The economic strain has coincided with currency depreciation and rising inflation.

The Egyptian pound has weakened by around 15 percent since the conflict began, while inflation reached 13.6 percent in March.

Despite the disruption, some businesses are adapting by reduction staffing hours or employing informal workarounds to continue operations. Others expressed cautious optimism that consumers will adjust to the new schedule.

A 23-year-old rider, Mohammad Mohsin, said his daily earnings have fallen from around 1,500 rupees ($5.38) to about 1,100 rupees as petrol prices climbed above 320 rupees per litre. “Before it was all mine. Now, a huge sum goes into petrol,” he said.

The spike in fuel prices is hitting low-paid urban workers particularly hard, with many riders struggling to cover basic expenses, let alone seasonal spending associated with Eid. Reuters spoke to more than half a dozen riders across Karachi, all of whom said higher petrol costs had significantly reduced their take-home earnings.

The squeeze comes despite increased demand for deliveries during Ramadan evenings and the Eid period, when food orders typically surge.

Pakistan’s inflation rate, which peaked at 38% in 2023, has eased but remains elevated at around 7%, continuing to push up the cost of food, rent and utilities. Many gig workers earn below the monthly minimum wage of 32,000 rupees ($114.67), with no fixed salaries or employment benefits.

Riders said the combined impact of inflation and fuel costs has eroded their purchasing power, forcing them to prioritise essentials over customary holiday spending.

Companies reliant on gig workers, including foodpanda, say they are adjusting pricing and taking steps to support rider earnings.

However, workers say these measures have not kept pace with rising costs, leaving them to compensate by spending more hours on the road.

Austerity measures, school closures and increased work-from-home practices have also reduced ride-hailing demand, cutting into incomes even as delivery volumes rise.

“We cannot afford clothes or shoes,” said Hizbullah, a 26-year-old delivery rider, reflecting a broader sentiment among workers that a typically festive period has become financially strained.