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	<title>geopolitics South Asia &#8211; The Milli Chronicle</title>
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	<title>geopolitics South Asia &#8211; The Milli Chronicle</title>
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		<title>The February Trap: Yunus, Jamaat, and a Staged Mandate</title>
		<link>https://www.millichronicle.com/2026/01/62715.html</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Aminul Hoque Polash]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 31 Jan 2026 19:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[So why would sections of the Western world want Jamaat? What does the Yunus-led interim administration gain from this? What]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-post-author"><div class="wp-block-post-author__avatar"><img alt='' src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/30f2066e7a66cfe304c7c9f29a55020f?s=48&#038;d=mm&#038;r=g' srcset='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/30f2066e7a66cfe304c7c9f29a55020f?s=96&#038;d=mm&#038;r=g 2x' class='avatar avatar-48 photo' height='48' width='48' loading='lazy' decoding='async'/></div><div class="wp-block-post-author__content"><p class="wp-block-post-author__name">Aminul Hoque Polash</p></div></div>


<blockquote class="wp-block-quote">
<p>So why would sections of the Western world want Jamaat? What does the Yunus-led interim administration gain from this? What role is it playing?</p>
</blockquote>



<p>A recent report in <em>The Washington Post</em> cited a US diplomat working in Bangladesh, claiming Washington wants to build “friendly relations” with Jamaat-e-Islami. The diplomat reportedly made the remarks in a closed-door discussion with a group of Bangladeshi women journalists on 1 December. The newspaper’s report, we are told, was built around an audio recording of that conversation.</p>



<p>In that recording, the diplomat expressed optimism that Jamaat would perform far better in the 12 February election than it has in the past. He even suggested the journalists invite representatives of Jamaat’s student wing to their programmes and events.</p>



<p>When the journalists raised a fear that Jamaat, if empowered, could enforce Sharia law, the diplomat’s response was striking: he said he did not believe Jamaat would implement Sharia. And even if it did, he added, Washington could respond with measures such as tariffs. He was also heard arguing that Jamaat includes many university graduates in leadership and would not take such a decision.</p>



<p>The Washington Post further quoted multiple political analysts suggesting Jamaat could achieve its best result in history in the 12 February vote and might even end up in power.</p>



<p>So, is this report simply the product of an “audio leak” published just 20 days before the interim government’s election? I don’t think so.</p>



<p>First, it stretches belief that Bangladeshi journalists would secretly record a closed conversation with a US diplomat and then pass it to The Washington Post.</p>



<p>Second, The Washington Post would almost certainly have cross-checked the audio with the diplomat concerned. If the diplomat had objected, it is hard to imagine the paper moving ahead in this way. My conclusion is blunt: this was published with the diplomat’s planning, or at least with the US embassy’s consent.</p>



<p>Call it what it is: a soft signal. A carefully calibrated message designed to project reassurance about Jamaat and to normalise the idea of Jamaat as a legitimate future governing force.</p>



<p>And then came the echo.</p>



<p>At the same time, two other international outlets, Reuters and Al Jazeera, also published reports about Jamaat-e-Islami. Both pointed towards the possibility of a strong Jamaat showing in the 12 February election. Al Jazeera’s tone, heavy with praise, makes it difficult not to suspect paid campaigning. More tellingly, an Al Jazeera poll recently put Jamaat’s public support at 33.6%, compared with 34.7% for the BNP.</p>



<p>The goal is obvious: to “naturalise” Jamaat’s pathway to power. To make what should shock the public feel ordinary. To convert the unthinkable into the plausible, and the plausible into the inevitable.</p>



<p>Which brings us to the unavoidable question: can Jamaat really win?</p>



<p>History says no. The highest share of the vote Jamaat ever secured in a normal election was in 1991: 12.13%. In the next three elections, Jamaat’s vote share fell to 8.68%, 4.28%, and 4.7%. In a genuinely competitive election, Jamaat is not a double-digit party.</p>



<p>But Bangladesh is not heading into a normal election. An unelected, illegitimate interim administration is preparing a managed vote while keeping the country’s largest political party, the Awami League, effectively outside the electoral process. </p>



<p>In that distorted arena, behind-the-scenes engineering is underway to seat Jamaat on the throne. The diplomat’s “leak”, the favourable international coverage, and the publication of flattering polls are not isolated incidents. They are the components of a single operation.</p>



<p>If anyone doubts the direction of travel, they should remember what happened after 5 August. In his first public remarks after that date, the army chief repeatedly addressed Jamaat’s leader with reverential language, calling him “Ameer-e-Jamaat”. From that moment onwards, Jamaat has exerted an outsized, near-monopolistic influence over Bangladesh’s political field.</p>



<p>Yes, Khaleda Zia’s illness, Tarique Rahman’s possible return, and even the prospect of Khaleda Zia’s death have periodically given the BNP a breeze at its back. But the reel and string of the political kite are now held elsewhere. Jamaat controls the tempo.</p>



<p>And it did not happen in a vacuum. The Awami League has been driven off the streets through mob violence, persecution, repression and judicial harassment. With its principal rival forced away from political life, Jamaat has been able to present itself not merely as a participant, but as an authority.</p>



<p>Now look at the state itself.</p>



<p>Every major organ of power, it is argued, is being brought under Jamaat’s influence. Within the military, “Islamisation” is being used as a cover for Jamaatisation. Fifteen decorated army officers are reportedly jailed on allegations connected to the disappearance of Abdullah Hil Azmi, the son of Ghulam Azam, widely regarded as a leading figure among the razakars. Yet it remains unclear whether Azmi was even abducted at all.</p>



<p>The judiciary, too, is described as falling almost entirely under Jamaat’s control. Key administrative positions, especially DCs, SPs, UNOs and OCs, are increasingly occupied by Jamaat-aligned officials.</p>



<p>On campuses, the story repeats itself. Through engineered student union elections, Jamaat’s student organisation, Islami Chhatra Shibir, has established dominance in Dhaka University and other leading public universities. Even vice-chancellor appointments are described as being shaped by Jamaat-friendly influence.</p>



<p>And while this internal consolidation accelerates, external courtship intensifies.</p>



<p>Since August 2024, Jamaat leaders have reportedly held at least four meetings in Washington with US authorities. Their close contact with the US embassy in Bangladesh continues. Meanwhile, the British High Commissioner has held multiple meetings with Jamaat’s ameer, widely reported in the media. Jamaat’s ameer has also visited the United Kingdom recently.</p>



<p>In short, Jamaat has reached a level of favourable conditions never seen since its founding. Not even in Pakistan, the birthplace of its ideological ecosystem.</p>



<p>So why would sections of the Western world want Jamaat? What does the Yunus-led interim administration gain from this? What role is it playing?</p>



<p>The answer offered here is uncompromising: the current interim government has signed multiple agreements with Western powers, particularly the United States, including an NDA arrangement and various trade deals that are described as being against public interest. Some may be public. Much remains opaque. The government wants these agreements protected. It also wants long-term leverage over Bangladesh’s politics and territory.</p>



<p>From a broader geopolitical perspective, Bangladesh’s land matters. It sits at a strategic crossroads. For those intent on consolidating dominance in the Asia-Pacific and simultaneously containing the influence of both China and India, Bangladesh is useful. This is part of a long game.</p>



<p>And if Jamaat, with weak popular legitimacy, can be installed in power, external agendas become easier to execute. The argument is stark: Jamaat, as a party of war criminals and anti-liberation forces, has no natural sense of accountability to Bangladesh’s soil or its people. In exchange for power, it would hand foreign actors a blank cheque.</p>



<p>Now to Dr Yunus.</p>



<p>The claim here is that since taking power, Yunus has already fulfilled his personal ambitions. He has rewarded loyalists with state titles and positions, creating opportunities for them to accumulate money. He has satisfied the demands of the “deep state” that installed him. In doing so, the country’s interests have been sacrificed at every step.</p>



<p>And throughout, Jamaat has offered Yunus unconditional support.</p>



<p>After the election, Yunus’s priority will be survival: a safe exit for himself and his circle. That is tied to securing the future of the student leaders who claim to have been the principal stakeholders of July. In this narrative, Jamaat is stepping in again. The NCP has already aligned with Jamaat. To maintain international lobbying strength, Jamaat will ensure Yunus’s safe exit. It may even install him in the presidency if that serves the arrangement.</p>



<p>So what will the BNP do?</p>



<p>The answer given is grim: very little. Blinded by the hunger for power, the BNP has nodded along as Yunus and his circle pushed forward actions described as hostile to the national interest. Mirza Fakhrul has publicly claimed to see Zia within Yunus. Tarique Rahman has repeatedly been seen praising Yunus. All of it, the argument goes, for a single purpose: to reach power.</p>



<p>But the BNP, it is suggested, failed to understand the real game. At the grassroots, many of its leaders and activists have become disconnected from the public through extortion, land-grabbing and violent intimidation. Even when visible irregularities occurred in student union elections at universities, the BNP’s student wing, Chhatra Dal, either did not protest or could not.</p>



<p>If Jamaat takes power through a staged election on 12 February, the BNP will have no meaningful recourse left.</p>



<p>And the country?</p>



<p>The conclusion is bleak: Bangladeshis should not expect their suffering to end any time soon. Just as a meticulously designed operation removed an elected Awami League government, another meticulous design is now being finalised to seat Jamaat-e-Islami, a party branded by the author as one of war criminals, with the backing of foreign powers.</p>



<p>Yunus’s anti-national agreements, it is argued, will be implemented through Jamaat’s hands. Independence, sovereignty and the constitution will be thrown into the dustbin. Secularism, women’s freedom, and minority rights will be locked away in cold storage. The destination is spelled out without ambiguity:</p>



<p>Bangladesh will become the Islamic Republic of Bangladesh.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote">
<p>Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>OPINION: Reko Diq and the New Imperial Loot of Balochistan</title>
		<link>https://www.millichronicle.com/2025/12/60767.html</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arun Anand]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:17:20 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Latest]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[autonomy movement Balochistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baloch rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balochistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balochistan resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Pakistan Economic Corridor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[copper and gold reserves]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[critical minerals]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Balochistan’s modern history is inseparable from the manner in which it entered Pakistan. On December 10, the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-post-author"><div class="wp-block-post-author__avatar"><img alt='' src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/bb9e54675a4e13ec52632e18de1bbd93?s=48&#038;d=mm&#038;r=g' srcset='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/bb9e54675a4e13ec52632e18de1bbd93?s=96&#038;d=mm&#038;r=g 2x' class='avatar avatar-48 photo' height='48' width='48' loading='lazy' decoding='async'/></div><div class="wp-block-post-author__content"><p class="wp-block-post-author__name">Arun Anand</p></div></div>


<blockquote class="wp-block-quote">
<p>Balochistan’s modern history is inseparable from the manner in which it entered Pakistan. </p>
</blockquote>



<p>On December 10, the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Islamabad, Natalie Baker, announced that the U.S. Exim Bank had <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1960428/us-exim-bank-okays-12bn-for-reko-diq">approved</a> a package of $1.25 billion in financing to support mining operations at Reko Diq, one of the world’s richest untapped copper and gold deposits. On the surface, Washington framed the decision as a step toward securing global supply chains for critical minerals. </p>



<p>Islamabad portrayed it as a sign of renewed confidence in Pakistan’s investment climate. But for Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province by land but its poorest by every measure, the announcement landed like yet another reminder that its natural wealth is a prize others are free to carve up.</p>



<p>This Exim Bank financing flows directly after two <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pakistan-dispatches-first-ever-shipment-of-rare-earth-and-critical-minerals-to-united-states-under-landmark-500m-agreement-302573210.html">MoUs were signed</a> on September 8, 2025, between Pakistan and the United States for “critical minerals cooperation.” The military dominated Shehbaz Sharif government heralded the agreements as a milestone. But in Balochistan, they are yet another chapter in an old story: the extraction of Balochistan’s resources by outside powers, facilitated by a central government that treats the province not as a partner but as a colony.</p>



<p>For decades, Pakistan has perfected a model of imperial governance in Balochistan, which combines military control, political manipulation, and economic dispossession. What is new today is not the extraction but the identity of the extractors. The United States now joins China, whose multibillion-dollar projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have already given Beijing expansive access to Balochistan’s ports, highways, and mineral deposits. </p>



<p>Pakistan’s rulers have turned Balochistan into a marketplace where global powers shop for resources while the people who live above those riches remain among the most deprived in South Asia.</p>



<p>Balochistan’s modern history is inseparable from the manner in which it entered Pakistan. After the forced accession of 1948, the province was governed with suspicion and repression. Islamabad treated Baloch aspirations for autonomy as rebellion, not politics. The result is a province where the most powerful institution is not the provincial assembly but the Quetta cantonment, whose writ supersedes that of any civilian office.</p>



<p>Even today, Balochistan’s political leadership is crafted in military corridors of Rawalpindi and the condonement at Quetta. The current chief minister, Sarfaraz Bugti, is widely viewed as a product of the military establishment, who is another local administrator empowered to manage dissent rather than address the province’s material deprivation. The result is a governance system more interested in securing resource corridors than building schools, hospitals, or representative institutions.</p>



<p>Under this militarized order, resource extraction has been carefully organized to ensure that wealth flows outward to Pakistan’s dominant province, Punjab, and to foreign partners courted by the military-led state. Balochistan’s natural gas from Sui fueled Pakistan’s industrial growth for decades, yet most Baloch households cook on firewood. </p>



<p>Today, its copper and gold fields promise to enrich foreign corporations and deliver revenue to Islamabad, while the communities living in the shadow of these mines remain jobless, landless, and under surveillance.</p>



<p>Even menial jobs at major projects like security guards, cleaners, construction labor, are routinely filled by workers imported from Punjab. The message is unmistakable that the state does not merely extract from Balochistan, it excludes Baloch people from even the crumbs of that extraction.</p>



<p>The rush by both China and the U.S. for access to Balochistan’s minerals reflects how Pakistan’s ruling elite has repositioned the province within global competition. Beijing’s footprint was first to expand, anchored by the Gwadar port and a series of infrastructure and mining agreements. </p>



<p>CPEC promised development but delivered a model where Chinese companies received generous concessions, security cordons were erected to protect foreign workers, and local fishing communities were pushed to the margins.</p>



<p>Now, Washington enters the scene, not as a counterweight to China’s influence but as another partner in Pakistan’s long tradition of opaque, extractive deals. It reflects a bipartisan plunder with Pakistan inviting multiple patrons to mine a region whose own residents are denied the most basic political and economic rights.</p>



<p>The most striking thing about Balochistan is how starkly its material reality contradicts its mineral wealth. Despite being mineral rich in every aspect, the province ranks at the bottom of every development index in Pakistan. For instance, <a href="https://www.ppaf.org.pk/doc/Pro_FactFiles/Balochistan%20Fact%20File%20September%202024.pdf">the poverty appears near-universal</a> with 71 percent of the provincial population living in multidimensional poverty. It is nearly double the national average of 38 percent and in districts like Awaran, Kharan, and Panjgur, even exceeds 80 percent.</p>



<p>Likewise, education is in an equally dire state. Literacy hovers around 40–44 percent, the <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/29-Apr-2023/balochistan-s-dismal-socioeconomic-indices">lowest in the country</a>, with female literacy dropping below 25 percent in many rural districts. More than 60 percent of Balochistan’s children are out of school. These are not statistics of a neglected province; they are the metrics of deliberate underdevelopment. </p>



<p>The story is same across healthcare with the province recording the <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/29-Apr-2023/balochistan-s-dismal-socioeconomic-indices">highest maternal mortality</a> ratio of 785 deaths per 100,000 live births. It is abysmal compared to the national average of 186.</p>



<p>Nevertheless, the new U.S. financing for Reko Diq along with the other critical mineral MoU is significant not because it marks a shift in Washington’s policy but because it reveals a continuity in Pakistan’s own governing logic of treating Balochistan as a frontier to exploit. </p>



<p>The province is secured by force, governed through proxies, and opened to whichever foreign power is willing to invest billions with no questions asked about political rights or local consent.</p>



<p>Even when the government speaks of “benefit-sharing,” it does not specify it that the benefit is for Punjabis and Punjabi military and political elite that dominates the levers of power in Pakistan. As such, it is not partnership but a plunder with legal paperwork.</p>



<p>The tragedy is not just that Balochistan’s resources are being plundered. It is that this plunder is now bipartisan, endorsed by Islamabad, welcomed by Washington and Beijing, and justified in the name of development that never arrives.</p>



<p>For the people of Balochistan, the empire has simply added new partners. The loot continues. The province remains impoverished. And the world’s most powerful countries now share in the spoils of a land whose own residents have yet to taste the prosperity lying beneath their feet.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote">
<p>Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.</p>
</blockquote>
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