Even before the latest hostilities, analysts described Iran’s economy as deeply fragile, weighed down by sanctions, energy imbalances, inflation and declining exports. The impact of renewed strikes and the effective closure of Hormuz a critical artery for global energy shipments has sharply intensified those pressures.

The blockade threatens more than 90% of Iran’s annual trade, estimated at over $100 billion, according to analysts, cutting off vital oil exports that account for roughly 80% of government revenue. Estimates cited by experts suggest losses of around $435 million per day, potentially exceeding $13 billion monthly.

Energy infrastructure constraints are compounding the crisis. With limited storage capacity and continued production, Iran risks being forced to halt oil output within weeks, raising the possibility of long-term damage to oil fields and a permanent reduction in production capacity.

On the domestic front, economic indicators point to severe distress. The Iranian rial has sharply depreciated, while food inflation has surged into triple digits, eroding purchasing power and fueling social discontent.

Shortages of energy have also disrupted key industries such as steel, cement and petrochemicals.The blockade’s effects are further magnified by limited alternative trade routes. Infrastructure outside the Gulf, including overland corridors and non-Hormuz ports, can handle only a fraction of normal throughput, leaving Iran with few options to offset lost maritime access.

Internal divisions are also emerging over the management of foreign currency revenues and economic policy, with some officials warning that significant portions of export earnings are not reaching state coffers.

Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has called for compromise, urging Tehran to consider limiting its nuclear program and reopening Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief to prevent further economic deterioration.Analysts say the government’s response is driven less by economic logic than by strategic considerations.

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said the conflict is viewed by Iran’s leadership as existential, limiting the likelihood of policy shifts despite economic strain.The longer-term outlook remains uncertain.

Researchers at Royal United Services Institute warn that postwar recovery could be hampered by damaged infrastructure, reduced access to regional financial networks and strained ties with Gulf partners, particularly the United Arab Emirates, a key trade hub for Iran.

With reconstruction costs expected to be substantial and trade channels constrained, the economic consequences of the conflict may prove more enduring than the military phase itself.

Among the ships that passed through the waterway were five vessels that had last loaded cargoes from Iran, including oil products and metals, while three liquefied petroleum gas carriers were bound for destinations including China and India.A Panama-flagged tanker carrying LPG from the United Arab Emirates was headed to Indonesia, while two other tankers loaded with refined products from Bahrain were en route to Mozambique and Thailand, respectively, according to the data.

Shipping activity also included a Liberian-flagged tanker transporting around 500,000 barrels of UAE naphtha to Ulsan in South Korea, and a very large crude carrier hauling roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi oil toward Taiwan. Another vessel carrying about 780,000 barrels of Das crude from the UAE was bound for Sri Lanka.

Additional cargoes moving through the strait included fertiliser shipments from Qatar to the UAE and petroleum coke exports from Saudi Arabia to Italy.

The uptick in vessel movements comes after weeks of disruption linked to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, which had sharply curtailed tanker traffic through one of the world’s most vital energy transit routes.

Speaking to reporters, Trump acknowledged the difficulty of the task and provided no operational details but indicated that other countries were prepared to assist. “It won’t be easy, we will have that open fairly soon,” he said, adding that multiple nations reliant on the waterway were offering support.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has seen traffic severely curtailed since Tehran effectively blocked passage following the outbreak of hostilities. The disruption has triggered sharp volatility in global energy markets and raised concerns over supply security.

The conflict escalated after U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting retaliatory attacks by Tehran on Israel and U.S. military installations in Gulf states. The broader regional confrontation has resulted in significant casualties, mass displacement and sustained pressure on oil prices.Trump has also pressed allies to contribute more actively to securing the waterway.

Following talks with the U.S. president, Mark Rutte urged European governments to provide concrete commitments within days, according to Reuters reporting.A fragile ceasefire announced earlier this week between Washington and Tehran has yet to restore normal shipping flows through the strait.

Separately, the United Kingdom is set to convene another meeting next week involving countries seeking to reestablish safe maritime transit through the strait. The discussions are expected to include senior officials and focus on coordinated diplomatic, economic and potential security measures to ensure passage for commercial vessels.

The meeting follows earlier consultations involving dozens of countries, including foreign ministers and military planners, as governments weigh options ranging from sanctions on Iran to maritime security operations once conditions permit.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said a credible plan is needed to reopen the route and stabilize global trade flows.

Speaking to UK broadcasters before departing Qatar, Starmer described NATO as a longstanding defensive alliance that has underpinned transatlantic security for decades, while acknowledging that European members must increase their financial contributions.

His remarks came in response to renewed criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to withdraw from the alliance following disagreements with NATO partners over participation in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.“It is in America’s interests. It’s in European interests,” Starmer said, emphasizing the alliance’s role in maintaining collective security.

The British leader’s visit included stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, where discussions centered on sustaining a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran and addressing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for global energy supplies.

Starmer said he held a phone call with Trump late on Thursday, during which he conveyed regional concerns, particularly regarding the continued closure of the strait. Although the waterway was expected to reopen under the ceasefire agreement announced earlier this week, recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and disputes over compliance have delayed progress.

He added that the United Kingdom is working to assemble a coalition of more than 30 countries to coordinate diplomatic and military efforts aimed at restoring safe navigation through the chokepoint.

In a separate interview, Starmer expressed frustration over the economic impact of geopolitical tensions, citing volatility in energy prices. He drew comparisons between the influence of Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on global markets, stating that fluctuations in energy costs were placing pressure on households and businesses.

The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of the world’s oil shipments, and prolonged disruption has raised concerns among governments and markets about supply stability and price volatility.

During the call, the ministers reviewed recent developments and discussed ways to reduce tensions and restore regional security and stability, according to the statement posted on X.

The contact comes amid a fragile ceasefire announced earlier this week following heightened hostilities that saw Iran launch strikes against Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, in response to Israeli and U.S. military actions.

The exchange signals a potential diplomatic opening between Riyadh and Tehran at a time of sustained regional volatility, with multiple fronts of conflict continuing despite the truce.

United Arab Emirates presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the UAE had emerged stronger from the conflict, despite efforts to avoid escalation.

“The UAE emerged victorious from a war we sincerely sought to avoid,” Gargash wrote on X, adding that the country was better positioned to navigate regional complexities and influence future developments.

In Oman, officials stressed the importance of mediation and sustained engagement, with the foreign minister pledging support for initiatives aimed at achieving “strong and enduring regional security.”

Omani authorities urged Washington and Tehran to pursue serious negotiations to secure a durable peace.Saudi Arabia also backed diplomatic efforts, with its foreign ministry emphasizing the need for an agreement that addresses underlying causes of instability and long-term threats to regional security.

The responses highlight a broader regional push to consolidate the ceasefire into a lasting settlement, amid concerns over the potential for renewed tensions and the wider impact on Middle East stability.

“At this point, we take a cautious approach, and we are not making any changes to specific services,” the Danish container group said in a statement to Reuters.

The conflict, which escalated following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February and subsequent Iranian retaliation, led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and brought Gulf shipping activity close to a standstill, disrupting global supply chains.

Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, had suspended cargo bookings to several Gulf ports last month and introduced emergency bunker fuel surcharges globally to offset rising fuel costs.

“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and we need to understand all potential conditions attached,” the company said.It added that any decision to resume transit through the strait would depend on ongoing risk assessments, security conditions and guidance from relevant authorities and partners.

In response to disruptions, Maersk has implemented alternative logistics routes, including a “land-bridge” system using ports in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, Salalah and Sohar in Oman, and Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, allowing cargo to be transported by land into Gulf destinations.

The company said it would continue to monitor developments closely and update operations as greater clarity emerges in the coming days.

“I welcome the ceasefire agreement reached overnight, which will bring a moment of relief to the region and the world,” Starmer said in a statement, adding that efforts must now focus on sustaining the truce and reopening the vital maritime route.

Starmer said Britain would work with partners to support and uphold the ceasefire and turn it into a lasting agreement, while seeking to protect global economic stability by restoring access through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil and gas shipments.

The visit comes amid heightened diplomatic activity following the ceasefire, with London positioning itself in efforts to stabilise energy flows and reduce disruption to global markets.

Starmer, who has faced criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump for not backing recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has in recent days convened multinational discussions on securing the reopening of the strait.

According to the British government, the prime minister’s discussions in the Gulf will focus on diplomatic measures to reinforce the ceasefire and prevent further escalation that could threaten international trade.

The trip had been scheduled prior to the ceasefire announcement, but now takes on added significance as global attention turns to ensuring uninterrupted passage through one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper also held talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday, discussing coordinated diplomatic steps to reopen the strait, including a UK-led meeting last week that brought together more than 40 countries to address the issue.

Iran has rejected a U.S. ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a deadline set by former U.S. President Donald Trump, as military strikes intensified and diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan approached what officials described as a critical stage.

With hours remaining before the deadline, a senior Iranian source said Tehran would not reopen the strategic waterway without concessions from Washington that had not been offered. The Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy corridor, has effectively been closed by Iran to most international shipping since late February following joint U.S.-Israeli military actions.

Trump warned that failure to comply would result in large-scale destruction of Iranian infrastructure, including power grids and bridges. In a social media post, he stated that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” framing the moment as a pivotal point in global history.

The remarks drew criticism from legal experts, including a former U.S. State Department adviser now with the International Crisis Group, who said the language could be interpreted as a threat violating international norms.

Military activity escalated across Iran throughout the day. Strikes were reported on transport infrastructure, including railway and highway bridges, as well as an airport and a petrochemical facility. U.S. forces also targeted installations on Kharg Island, which hosts Iran’s primary oil export terminal.

Power outages were reported in parts of Karaj following damage to transmission lines and a substation.Iran signalled a broadening of its response. Officials warned that Gulf states aligned with Washington could face retaliatory strikes on critical infrastructure.

A senior Iranian source said such actions could disrupt electricity and water supplies in desert cities dependent on energy systems.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a statement saying previous restraint had ended and that Tehran would seek to deprive the United States and its regional allies of oil and gas resources.

Iranian authorities also claimed responsibility for attacks on a vessel in the Gulf and on a major Saudi petrochemical facility in Jubail, where international energy companies operate.In parallel, reports emerged of an overnight strike on a synagogue in Tehran, which Iranian officials attributed to Israeli forces.

Footage aired by state media showed debris scattered across the site, including religious texts. Israel’s military did not immediately comment on the incident.Diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan continued amid the escalation.

Iranian officials said mediation attempts were “approaching a critical, sensitive stage,” with Islamabad relaying messages between the two sides. A proposal under discussion included a temporary ceasefire and partial reopening of the strait, with broader negotiations to follow.

However, Iranian sources said Tehran had rejected interim arrangements, insisting instead on a permanent cessation of hostilities, guarantees against future attacks and compensation for damage.Iran’s conditions, as outlined through official channels, also included maintaining control over the strait and introducing a mechanism to regulate transit, potentially involving fees.

Prior to the conflict, the waterway functioned as an open international route through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed.Despite the intensifying conflict, global markets showed limited reaction, reflecting uncertainty over whether the U.S. would carry out the threatened escalation.

Trump has previously issued similar warnings but later stepped back, citing unspecified progress in talks, claims that Iranian officials have denied.On the ground, residents expressed concern over the prospect of further escalation.

A resident in Isfahan said she hoped the latest threats would not materialise, reflecting broader public anxiety as military actions continued.Iran maintains that any negotiations must follow a halt to U.S. and Israeli strikes and include the lifting of sanctions.

Without such measures, officials indicated that Tehran would continue its current posture, including restrictions on maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

As the deadline approached, neither side signalled a willingness to compromise, raising the risk of further escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted regional stability and global energy flows.

The refinery attack triggered fires that emergency and firefighting teams were working to contain, the company said in a statement carried by state media. No injuries were reported, and operations were being monitored closely, including air quality in surrounding areas, which officials said showed no immediate environmental impact.

Earlier, Kuwait’s military said its air defense systems were engaging incoming missile and drone threats.

The Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy said a separate strike hit a power and desalination plant, causing material damage to parts of the facility. Emergency teams were deployed under contingency plans to maintain operations and secure infrastructure.

Kuwait has faced repeated missile and drone attacks since the outbreak of conflict involving Iran and its regional adversaries, increasing pressure on critical energy and utility infrastructure.

The latest strikes highlight the growing risk to energy supply chains and essential services in the Gulf, even as authorities seek to contain damage and maintain operational continuity.