Before sunrise each day, 26-year-old Astha Chhetri begins work on her online secondhand clothing business by reviewing supplier lists, checking shipping updates and preparing inventory for sale on social media.By evening, she is still working, photographing garments, uploading promotional videos and responding to customer inquiries through Instagram and messaging applications.

What began as a side business while employed at a low-paying call centre has now become her primary source of income.“I was not enjoying my job, neither mentally nor financially,” Chhetri said. “I wanted to build something of my own.”Across India, a growing number of young people are entering the secondhand and vintage clothing trade as economic pressures, unemployment and social media platforms reshape informal retail markets.

Many sellers operate independently through Instagram, WhatsApp and online marketplaces, sourcing clothing from wholesalers and street markets before reselling items directly to consumers.India’s secondhand clothing market is estimated to be worth approximately ₹33,000 crore annually, driven largely by younger consumers seeking affordable and distinctive fashion options.

Buyers are typically students and early-career professionals navigating rising living costs and limited disposable income.“I love browsing Instagram for unique hoodies and tees,” said Ananya Khan, a 21-year-old college student in Delhi. “I usually spend ₹800-₹1,500 per item.”The expansion of resale fashion coincides with persistent employment challenges among young Indians.

According to India’s Periodic Labour Force Survey, roughly 10% of people aged between 15 and 29 were unemployed in 2025.For many participants, online thrift retail offers lower barriers to entry than formal employment or traditional business ownership. Startup costs are relatively limited, working hours are flexible and payments can be received immediately through digital transaction systems.

Vishu Roy, 22, operates a thrift store near Sarojini Nagar Market, one of the capital’s best-known clothing markets. He said the business started informally using modest savings and family assistance.“I started with just ₹5,000-₹10,000 in savings from part-time work and family help,” Roy said. “I saw people buying old clothes in markets and realised they could be resold. Now, it is my main income.”Roy initially sold clothing online before opening a small retail outlet.

He now spends much of the day managing social media engagement, uploading short-form videos, responding to customers and tracking deliveries.“I always check his Instagram drops first thing,” said Rohan, a 23-year-old digital marketing assistant who purchases vintage clothing online.

“Sometimes I even wait to snag rare pieces before they sell out.”Roy said maintaining visibility on social media platforms is critical for survival in the business.“If you stop posting, you disappear,” he said. “Consistency is everything in this business.”Most independent thrift sellers manage every stage of operations themselves, including sourcing, photography, marketing, customer service and logistics.

While the business can generate strong returns during periods of high demand, sellers say income remains inconsistent and heavily dependent on platform algorithms and consumer trends.“Some months are great, others slow,” Roy said.

“But it is still better than waiting for a job that doesn’t come.”Instagram has become particularly important within India’s resale clothing market, allowing sellers to advertise directly to customers nationwide without physical storefronts. However, dependence on digital platforms also creates vulnerabilities. Sellers say changes in visibility, account reach or online engagement can quickly affect revenues.

“Around 70% of my sales come from Instagram,” Chhetri said. “If reach drops, sales drop too. One bad week on the algorithm can hurt the whole month.”Despite the growth of online sales, Delhi’s street markets remain central to the supply chain. Markets including Sarojini Nagar and Janpath Market serve as sourcing hubs where traders purchase export surplus garments, factory rejects and unsold inventory for resale online.

Abhin Bougia, 22, from Jammu, entered the business in 2021 alongside his cousin using ₹1,000 in initial capital.“We started from nothing,” Bougia said. “We bought a few pieces, took photos, posted them on Instagram and WhatsApp and called it our first ‘drop’. That’s how it began.”Bougia said revenues fluctuate sharply depending on inventory and consumer demand.“Once, I made ₹35,000 in a single day,” he said.

“But sometimes, clothes take months to sell.”Unsold inventory remains one of the largest financial risks for independent resellers. Sellers often purchase items without guarantees they will attract buyers online.“Sometimes you buy stock for ₹1,500 and can’t sell it at all,” Bougia said. “If it doesn’t move, you are stuck with dead stock.”Market vendors in Delhi say the growing resale trend has increased demand for surplus and export-quality garments among younger traders.

“People come early in the morning, pick the best pieces and sell them online later at three times the price,” said Adarsh Kumar, a market trader.Much of the inventory originates from export-surplus supply chains, where garments originally produced for overseas brands enter informal domestic markets through wholesalers and distributors.

Roy said he has also begun importing some inventory directly from suppliers in China and Bangladesh.“Surplus are factory rejects that may have a small defect, or cancelled order,” Roy said. “Thrifted pieces are part of export consignments. Most people don’t know the difference, but it matters for quality and price.”For Chhetri, sourcing remains both the largest operational expense and the greatest commercial risk.

“I import clothes from abroad and pay customs and shipping,” she said. “Sometimes I even hire a local guide when sourcing overseas. It is a detailed and expensive process.”Economists say the rise of informal resale businesses reflects broader structural pressures in India’s labour market rather than a shift toward stable entrepreneurship.

Arup Mitra, an economics professor at South Asian University, said many young people turn to such work because formal employment opportunities remain limited.“This is not a gainful activity,” Mitra said. “Young people turn to such ventures only when other productive avenues are unavailable.”Sellers also report increasing exposure to fraud, payment disputes and unreliable customers.

Bougia said fake digital payment confirmations and fraudulent transactions are common risks in the online resale market.“People send fake UPI screenshots,” he said. “You have to check your account before trusting anyone.”Despite the growing marketing emphasis on sustainability and circular fashion, several sellers said environmental concerns are not the main factor driving purchases.

“People buy for style, not the planet,” Chhetri said.Roy, who specialises in vintage band T-shirts, said consumer demand is still primarily fashion-driven.“It’s mostly about fashion,” he said. “Sustainability comes later, if at all.”Late each evening, Roy continues responding to customer messages involving pricing, sizing and delivery details while preparing new promotional videos for the following day’s sales cycle.

“There is no certainty,” Chhetri said. “Every day is different, some good, some bad. But for now, it works.”

The company said the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder used by industrial consumers was increased by 993 rupees, or 47.8%, to 3,071.5 rupees from previous levels.Aviation turbine fuel prices for international airlines were also raised by $76.55 per kilolitre to $1,511.86 per kilolitre, up from $1,435.31, according to a company statement.

Prices of household LPG, primarily used as cooking fuel, were left unchanged, while jet fuel rates for domestic airlines were also not revised.The selective increase reflects the government’s continued effort to shield households and domestic carriers from sharp energy inflation while allowing market-linked pricing for industrial and international commercial users.

The revisions come as global oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route for crude exports, amid the ongoing Iran war and heightened military tensions in the Gulf.

The disruption has tightened supply expectations across global energy markets and increased input costs for refiners and fuel distributors across Asia, particularly for countries such as India that depend heavily on imported crude.

India imports more than 80% of its crude oil needs, making domestic fuel pricing highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks in major producing regions such as West Asia.

The increase in commercial LPG prices is expected to affect hotels, restaurants and small industrial users, while higher aviation turbine fuel costs for foreign carriers could raise operational expenses for international flights using Indian refueling hubs.

Indian Oil did not indicate whether further revisions would follow if crude prices remain elevated.

The India Meteorological Department projected seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), below its benchmark range for normal precipitation. The monsoon, which typically spans June to September, provides nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical for farming and water supplies.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the forecast reflects evolving climate conditions, while IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral patterns, with a high likelihood of an El Nino developing after June.

El Niño events are typically associated with hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia and have historically coincided with weaker monsoons in India, sometimes triggering drought conditions and crop losses.

However, Mohapatra said a potential positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset rainfall deficits by strengthening precipitation in the latter half of the monsoon.The initial forecast of 92% of the LPA is the lowest in nearly three decades, with an updated outlook expected in late May.

Economists warned that weaker rainfall, combined with global energy and commodity disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, could weigh on India’s economic outlook. Aditi Nayar said the developments pose downside risks to GDP growth for the 2026–27 fiscal year and could push inflation above 4.5%, compared with 3.4% recorded in March.

The government has projected economic growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the current fiscal year, but agricultural performance remains a key variable.Lower rainfall could also reshape trade flows.

India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and a major sugar producer, may curb exports if crop yields fall. At the same time, reduced domestic oilseed output could increase reliance on imported edible oils from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil.

The monsoon outlook is closely watched by policymakers and markets alike, given its broad impact on rural incomes, food prices and overall economic stability.

The state government said wages for unskilled workers would rise to about $165 per month from roughly $120, effective April 1, marking the first such policy move in response to the economic fallout from the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war.

The decision followed clashes between police and workers in Manesar, located near New Delhi and home to major manufacturing facilities including Maruti Suzuki and numerous supplier units. Authorities urged workers to resume duties peacefully after the announcement.

Workers said surging food prices, driven by disrupted gas supplies, had strained household budgets. India, the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied petroleum gas, is facing one of its most severe supply disruptions in decades, prompting the government to prioritize household consumption over industrial use.

The wage hike is expected to ease pressure on workers but add to cost burdens for automakers already grappling with higher raw material prices. Companies such as Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have raised vehicle prices, while Maruti has indicated similar steps may follow.

Industrial activity in Manesar was partially disrupted as workers boycotted shifts and staged protests. Employees reported that food costs had nearly doubled, with some migrant workers returning to their home villages due to rising expenses and uncertain supplies.

Suppliers including Munjal Showa said production was affected, while firms such as Roop Polymers reported limited disruption and a return to normal operations after the protests subsided.India’s auto sector relies heavily on migrant labor, with millions traveling to industrial clusters for work.

Industry groups warned that retaining workers has become a priority, with some companies offering meals and bonuses to prevent further departures.

Executives said supply chains could take weeks to stabilize even if geopolitical tensions ease, as disruptions to energy supplies continue to ripple through manufacturing and labor markets.

India’s rapid expansion of digital payment infrastructure is transforming the country’s informal economy, reshaping how small businesses operate and how individuals access financial services.

Driven by government-backed platforms and widespread smartphone adoption, the shift toward cashless transactions is accelerating financial inclusion while also introducing new regulatory and operational challenges.

At the center of this transformation is the National Payments Corporation of India, which operates the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), a real-time payment system that has seen exponential growth in recent years. UPI allows users to transfer money instantly between bank accounts using mobile applications, eliminating the need for traditional banking intermediaries.

According to official data released by NPCI, monthly UPI transactions have surged into billions, reflecting widespread adoption across urban and rural areas. Small vendors, street hawkers, and local service providers traditionally reliant on cash are increasingly accepting digital payments through QR codes and mobile apps.

The shift has been particularly significant in the informal sector, which accounts for a substantial portion of India’s workforce. Digital payments are enabling businesses to maintain transaction records, access credit, and integrate into formal financial systems.

This transition is seen by policymakers as a step toward improving tax compliance and economic transparency.The Reserve Bank of India has played a key role in regulating and promoting digital payment systems.

Through policy measures aimed at enhancing security and interoperability, the central bank has sought to build trust among users while encouraging innovation within the fintech sector.Private technology companies have also been instrumental in driving adoption.

Platforms such as PhonePe and Google Pay have expanded their user base by offering simplified interfaces and incentives for digital transactions. These applications have effectively bridged the gap between banking infrastructure and everyday users.Despite the progress, challenges remain.

Cybersecurity concerns are growing as transaction volumes increase, with reports of fraud and data breaches highlighting vulnerabilities within the system. Regulators have responded by introducing stricter authentication protocols and awareness campaigns to educate users about safe practices.

Another concern is digital literacy. While smartphone penetration has increased significantly, a segment of the population remains unfamiliar with digital financial tools. This gap is particularly evident among older populations and in regions with limited internet connectivity.

Addressing this issue is critical to ensuring that the benefits of digital payments are distributed evenly.The expansion of digital payments is also influencing consumer behavior. With instant payment capabilities, spending patterns are becoming more fluid, and businesses are adapting by offering digital-only discounts and services.

Analysts note that this shift is contributing to the growth of e-commerce and online service platforms.From a macroeconomic perspective, the move toward digital transactions is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce the costs associated with cash handling.

It also provides policymakers with better data for economic analysis, enabling more informed decision-making.However, the transition raises questions about data privacy and market concentration.

As large technology firms play an increasingly central role in financial transactions, concerns have emerged regarding data ownership and competitive practices. Regulators are closely monitoring these developments to ensure a balanced ecosystem.

The government has continued to promote digital payments through initiatives aligned with its broader digital economy strategy. These efforts include expanding internet infrastructure, incentivizing adoption, and integrating digital systems into public services.

Experts caution that while digital payments offer clear advantages, they should complement rather than entirely replace cash systems, particularly in regions where infrastructure remains uneven. A hybrid approach is seen as more practical in the near term.

India’s experience is being closely observed by other developing economies seeking to replicate its model of rapid digital financial inclusion. The combination of government support, private sector innovation, and user adoption has created a framework that could inform similar initiatives globally.

As digital payments become embedded in everyday life, their impact on the informal economy, financial systems, and regulatory landscape is expected to deepen.

The challenge for policymakers will be to sustain growth while addressing emerging risks and ensuring that the transition remains inclusive.

The HSBC flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 from February’s 58.9, missing expectations in a Reuters poll and marking the sharpest slowdown in 18 months. While readings above 50 indicate expansion, the drop signalled a loss of momentum at the end of the fiscal year.

Manufacturing slowdown deepensThe manufacturing sector bore the brunt of the slowdown, with its PMI declining to a 4-1/2-year low of 53.8 from 56.9. Factory output growth weakened to its softest pace since August 2021, reflecting heightened uncertainty and subdued consumer demand.

The services sector, which makes up the bulk of India’s economy, also eased, with its PMI slipping to 57.2 from 58.1.Cost pressures intensifyInput costs rose at their fastest pace since June 2022, driven by higher prices for oil, energy, food, metals and chemicals.

Firms responded by increasing selling prices at the quickest rate in seven months, though some absorbed costs by compressing margins.India’s heavy reliance on imported energy has amplified the impact.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, it sources about 90% of its crude and nearly half of its natural gas from overseas, making it vulnerable to price shocks linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the conflict began.

External demand offers supportDespite weakening domestic demand, international orders rose to their highest level since the sub-index was introduced in 2014, with businesses reporting increased demand from Asia, Europe, the Americas and the Middle East.

Business confidence improved to its strongest level since September 2023, supporting the fastest pace of job creation since August, even as inflation risks mount and growth prospects face renewed pressure.

Rising costs for key inputs such as plastic bottles, caps, labels and cardboard packaging have begun to squeeze margins, with some packaged water manufacturers already increasing prices.

Rahul Kumar, deputy chief executive at SLMG Beverages, said the company would consider price adjustments depending on competitive dynamics and consumer response.“If the war continues, the packaging material cost may continue to move up,” Kumar said, noting that broad-based price increases remain constrained in a highly competitive market.

India’s soft drinks market has intensified following the re-entry of Reliance Industries into the segment with its revival of the Campa cola brand in 2023. The move has triggered aggressive pricing and expanded distribution, limiting the ability of incumbents to pass on higher costs.

Kumar said SLMG Beverages had not implemented a portfolio-wide price increase in the past seven to eight years, reflecting price sensitivity among consumers and the presence of multiple national and regional competitors.

Despite cost pressures, the company is pressing ahead with capacity expansion to capture rising demand in India’s non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages market, which consultancy Redseer estimates could double to about $40 billion by 2030.SLMG Beverages plans to invest between 10 billion and 12 billion rupees in each of four new plants over the next five years.

The bottler, which accounts for more than 22% of Coca-Cola’s India volumes, is targeting net revenue of 100 billion rupees by 2026–27.The expansion will focus on populous states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where consumption levels remain relatively low but incomes are rising.

The company reported strong growth in the last fiscal year, with sales rising 49% to 67.73 billion rupees and net profit increasing 76% to 2.06 billion rupees, according to data from Tofler.

The developments underscore how the Middle East conflict is feeding into global supply chains, pushing up input costs for consumer-facing industries even in markets geographically distant from the conflict zone.

The price controls, introduced in December after widespread flight cancellations by market leader IndiGo drove up ticket prices across the sector, will be withdrawn as conditions stabilise, the civil aviation ministry said in the order dated Friday.

“The prevailing situation has since stabilised, with restoration of capacity and normalisation of operations across the sector,” the ministry said. The order has not been made public, and a ministry spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

The caps had been imposed following disruptions that tightened seat availability and triggered fare spikes at rival carriers. Authorities intervened to limit price volatility and protect passengers.

Indian carriers had urged the government to remove the caps, arguing they were incurring significant revenue losses amid rising expenses, particularly from higher jet fuel prices.

Analysts at HSBC have estimated that a $1 per barrel change in fuel prices can alter IndiGo’s annual fuel bill by roughly 3 billion rupees.Under the restrictions, one-way fares for routes up to 500 km were capped at 7,500 rupees, while tickets for journeys between 1,000 and 1,500 km, including the busy New Delhi–Mumbai sector, were limited to 15,000 rupees.

The government directed airlines to ensure pricing remains “reasonable, transparent and commensurate with market conditions,” adding that passenger interests should not be adversely affected as the controls are lifted.

The move signals a shift back toward market-driven pricing in India’s aviation sector as operational stability returns, even as cost pressures persist.

While the currency briefly hovered close to its all-time low of 88.80, proactive interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and steady dollar sales by state-run banks helped cushion any significant losses.

This balanced performance underscored India’s robust financial management and its ability to navigate complex international economic conditions with confidence.

Traders observed that the rupee, last seen trading at 88.7750 against the U.S. dollar, managed to stay well-supported despite pressures from a strong greenback, global trade uncertainties, and surging gold prices.

The RBI’s strategic oversight, along with timely actions by major state-owned lenders, provided an important safety net for the domestic currency, reinforcing investor trust in India’s monetary stability.

Central Bank’s Steady Hand

Frequent RBI interventions have played a pivotal role in maintaining the rupee’s position around the key 88.80 mark. Market participants note that this consistent presence has instilled calm across the financial system.

“The rupee’s cautious appreciation and technical positioning near levels like 88.80 and 88.50 suggest a finely balanced market. RBI moves and global trade developments will be crucial in determining the currency’s direction,” said Anil Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors.

India’s central bank has been carefully balancing inflation control, exchange rate stability, and economic growth.

The recent moderation in domestic retail inflation and strong foreign exchange reserves exceeding $650 billion have further enhanced the RBI’s ability to act decisively.

Experts say these measures have helped India maintain one of the most stable emerging market currencies in Asia, despite turbulent global conditions.

Government and Trade Diplomacy Boost Sentiment

Adding to the positive outlook, India’s trade delegation visit to the United States this week has raised hopes of renewed economic cooperation and trade dialogue.

Though traders remain cautious about immediate breakthroughs, diplomatic efforts reflect India’s proactive approach to strengthening bilateral economic relations.

Such initiatives not only help build confidence in India’s currency markets but also highlight the country’s growing importance in global trade discussions.

Market analysts believe that sustained government focus on export diversification, digital trade infrastructure, and cross-border investment opportunities could further support the rupee’s long-term trajectory.

India’s reputation as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies continues to attract investor interest, even during times of global economic uncertainty.

Markets Remain Optimistic Despite External Pressures

While the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 showed marginal declines of 0.1%, overall investor sentiment remained stable. The slight pullback came after a strong rally in previous sessions, reflecting normal market correction dynamics.

Meanwhile, gold prices extended their impressive rally to over $4,100 per ounce, a gain of nearly 58% year-to-date, underscoring strong global demand for safe-haven assets amid trade tensions.

Analysts note that while rising gold prices often place short-term pressure on the rupee, India’s resilient financial institutions and prudent monetary strategies help offset these challenges.

The RBI’s steady supply of liquidity, along with controlled currency volatility, continues to provide a foundation of strength for India’s broader economic framework.

Global Context and Outlook

The dollar index eased 0.2% to 99.1, while most Asian currencies weakened slightly, reflecting mixed global sentiment. With the U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic data, investors have turned their attention to U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential tariff changes.

Despite these uncertainties, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid — backed by strong GDP growth, healthy corporate earnings, and stable capital inflows.

Looking ahead, economists anticipate that the rupee’s near-term movement will depend on global energy prices, trade developments, and RBI’s ongoing intervention strategy.

However, most agree that India’s combination of disciplined fiscal management, policy agility, and robust financial institutions positions it favorably among emerging markets.

The current steadiness of the rupee demonstrates not weakness, but strategic resilience — an indicator that India’s economic system remains adaptable, responsive, and ready to weather global shocks.

As the nation continues to pursue growth through innovation, trade diplomacy, and financial prudence, the rupee’s ability to hold its ground becomes a symbol of India’s broader economic confidence.

Aiyar cautioned that the simultaneous downturn in the world’s two largest economies would inevitably exert a strong downward pull on the entire global economy.

While the recent trade tensions between the United States and India have garnered significant attention, economists warn that a potential slowdown in the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, poses a far greater threat to India’s economic stability. Swaminathan Aiyar, a prominent economist and consulting editor at ET Now, emphasized that the ripple effects of a major recession in these global powerhouses would significantly outweigh the impact of any bilateral tariff disputes.   

Aiyar’s concerns arise amidst escalating uncertainty in the global economy, largely fueled by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Despite a temporary 90-day pause on planned tariffs against several nations, including India, following a sharp decline in US stock markets, the underlying tensions remain. Moreover, China’s retaliatory measures, including increased tariffs on US goods, further exacerbate the situation.   

The economist had previously criticized Trump’s tariff announcements, labeling them a potential “Recession Day” rather than a “Liberation Day,” as the president had claimed. He argued that these policies would disrupt global supply chains, impede economic growth, and plunge the world economy into turmoil. Aiyar dismissed Trump’s assertion that tariffs would revitalize American manufacturing, predicting instead economic disruption.   

The erratic nature of Trump’s trade policies, with frequent changes occurring within hours, has created a climate of uncertainty for economists and investors. Goldman Sachs, while revising its recession forecast, still anticipates a significant US economic slowdown. Conversely, JPMorgan Chase maintains a more cautious outlook, assessing the probability of a US recession as still higher than not. This divergence in expert opinion underscores the precarious state of the global economic landscape, even after the temporary tariff reprieve.   

India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has already responded to these growing global uncertainties by reducing its economic growth forecast for the current financial year. The RBI also lowered the repo rate, citing concerns about weakening demand, tighter liquidity, and emerging global risks stemming from the escalating trade tensions.   

Moody’s Analytics has echoed these concerns, trimming its growth outlook for India in 2025, attributing the downward revision to the potential fallout from the US tariff measures. Despite the temporary freeze on some tariffs, Moody’s analysts highlighted that their current forecast reflects the potential economic damage should these tariffs be fully implemented in the future.   

Earlier warnings from leading global banks, including Morgan Stanley and Nomura, had already identified India, along with Thailand, as among the economies most vulnerable to the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on key trading partners.   

According to Aiyar, a full-scale financial meltdown may have been averted, primarily due to pressure from the bond market rather than diplomatic efforts. However, he remains convinced that a US recession is highly probable. Furthermore, he anticipates a significant economic slowdown in China, even if the country avoids negative GDP growth, effectively mirroring the impact of a recession.   

Aiyar cautioned that the simultaneous downturn in the world’s two largest economies would inevitably exert a strong downward pull on the entire global economy. The unpredictability of President Trump’s future trade actions has become an embedded factor in the global economic equation, influencing investor behavior and fostering a climate of risk aversion.   

The prevailing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is prompting investors to prioritize safety, further dampening economic activity. As Aiyar aptly stated, the constant ambiguity of Trump’s next move is “getting baked into everything else,” leading to a cautious approach across global markets.   

In conclusion, while the bilateral trade discussions between the US and India are important, the potential for a significant economic slowdown in the United States and China presents a far more substantial risk to India’s economic prospects. The interconnected nature of the global economy dictates that a downturn in these major engines of growth would have widespread and severe consequences, dwarfing the impact of any specific tariff disputes. The prevailing uncertainty and the potential for a synchronized slowdown necessitate a cautious and adaptive approach to economic policy in India.

Deepshikha Singh is an analytical content writer who enjoys turning complex information into compelling stories. Her passion lies in uncovering insights and sharing them in a way that’s both informative and engaging.