A strong majority of economists, 24 of 26 surveyed between March 9 and 12, forecast the central bank would keep its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 4.75%. The overnight deposit and lending facility rates are also expected to remain steady at 3.75% and 5.50%, respectively.

The Indonesian central bank has maintained its policy stance since October, prioritising currency stability as the rupiah weakened amid global uncertainty. Renewed geopolitical tensions following the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran have intensified pressure on emerging-market currencies, including Indonesia’s.

The rupiah fell to a record low earlier this week and has declined more than 1% so far this year after losing about 4% in 2025, effectively closing the window for an immediate rate cut.

Bank Indonesia has previously signalled its willingness to support economic growth but has refrained from easing policy as currency volatility remains a central concern. Maintaining exchange-rate stability is a key element of the bank’s mandate.

“The central bank will hold as it can’t resume its accommodative stance given how much the rupiah has weakened over the past month, especially in the last couple of weeks after the U.S.-Iran conflict,” said Tay Qi Hang, economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Investor sentiment has also been weighed down by concerns over fiscal credibility linked to the spending plans of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, which economists say could widen budget deficits.

Questions surrounding central bank independence after the appointment of the president’s nephew as a deputy governor have further unsettled markets, contributing to capital outflows.

The latest poll reflects a shift from an earlier Reuters survey in which about 85% of economists had anticipated rate cuts beginning in the second quarter.

Hang said February’s higher inflation reading alone was unlikely to determine the central bank’s decision but that currency weakness would delay any easing cycle.

“The timing of its next rate cut will likely be delayed until June at the earliest, as rupiah weakness constrains both the willingness and ability of the central bank to ease earlier,” he said.

Parliament’s financial commission is reviewing candidates for five key posts at the Financial Services Authority, known locally as OJK, including chair, deputy chair and senior capital market supervisory roles.

The leadership overhaul follows the sudden resignation on Jan. 30 of the agency’s chair, deputy chair, and the chief and deputy chief supervisors of capital markets. The departures came days after index provider MSCI warned it could downgrade Indonesia’s classification to “frontier” market status because of concerns related to transparency and governance in the equities market.

MSCI’s warning triggered a wave of selling that wiped roughly $120 billion from Indonesia’s equity market within days. The pressure intensified after Moody’s downgraded the outlook on Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating.

Authorities have since moved to accelerate reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence. Among proposals put forward by OJK and the Indonesia Stock Exchange is a plan to gradually raise the minimum free float of shares held by public investors in listed companies to 15% over the next three years.

Ten candidates are being considered for the five regulatory posts, including interim OJK chair Friderica Widyasari Dewi and acting capital markets supervisor Hasan Fawzi.

Most nominees come from within OJK as well as from Indonesia’s central bank, the finance ministry and the state deposit insurer, reflecting the government’s effort to maintain continuity while implementing governance reforms.

The parliamentary panel’s selections must still be confirmed by the broader legislature during a vote scheduled for Thursday.

The leadership appointment process has been significantly expedited compared with the usual months-long selection cycle. Authorities said the timeline was shortened in response to ongoing volatility in global financial markets.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said concerns over market stability and geopolitical tensions were behind the accelerated process.

“The situation is shaky. The war affects the markets, oil prices. It speeds up the need for more definitive persons at the OJK,” Purbaya told reporters.