Iran and the United States have agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire, marking a temporary pause in hostilities that have disrupted regional stability and threatened global energy supply routes, according to statements from officials in both countries and mediators involved in the talks.

The agreement provides for an immediate halt to attacks and the reopening of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments. Iranian authorities said safe passage would be coordinated with their armed forces during the ceasefire period, indicating continued operational control over the waterway.

The announcement was confirmed by Shehbaz Sharif, who said the ceasefire would apply “everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere” and take effect immediately. Sharif also invited both sides to send delegations to Islamabad for talks aimed at reaching a longer-term settlement, positioning Pakistan as a key mediator in the process.

Officials in Washington and Tehran offered differing emphases on the agreement. Donald Trump described the ceasefire as a “total and complete victory” for the United States, stating that US military objectives had been achieved and that discussions toward a broader peace arrangement were already advanced. He added that Washington would suspend further military action, including previously stated threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure, contingent on compliance with the terms of the agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Tehran would halt what he described as “defensive operations” to facilitate negotiations. He said Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal that Washington had accepted as the basis for talks, while also reviewing a separate 15-point proposal put forward by the United States.

Despite these developments, there were inconsistencies in how the ceasefire’s geographic scope was described. Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the agreement did not extend to Lebanon, contradicting assertions by Pakistani officials and some US sources that the ceasefire would apply across multiple fronts. The discrepancy highlights ongoing uncertainty over the terms and implementation of the arrangement.

No official text of either proposal has been publicly released. However, details reported by Iranian state media suggest that Tehran’s 10-point plan includes provisions for maintaining its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, securing the lifting of sanctions, unfreezing overseas assets, and obtaining compensation for damages.

The proposal is also reported to call for the withdrawal of US forces from the region, recognition of Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, and a binding United Nations resolution to formalize any final agreement.

Iranian diplomatic messaging has reinforced these positions, emphasizing continued control over strategic waterways and a cessation of hostilities across multiple regional theaters. Tehran has also indicated that any lasting agreement would need to address broader geopolitical and economic demands, including sanctions relief and security guarantees.

By contrast, the US proposal is reported by regional sources cited by CNN to focus on nuclear and security constraints. The 15-point framework is believed to include commitments by Iran to forgo nuclear weapons development, surrender highly enriched uranium, limit its defense capabilities, and curtail support for regional proxy groups. It also includes provisions to ensure the continued operation of the Strait of Hormuz as an open international shipping route.

Iran has previously rejected these terms, describing them as “excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable,” suggesting that significant gaps remain between the two sides despite the temporary ceasefire.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a central component of the agreement, given its importance to global energy markets.

Any disruption to shipping through the waterway has immediate implications for oil prices and supply chains, making the ceasefire’s maritime provisions a key focus for international stakeholders.

The two-week timeframe underscores the provisional nature of the arrangement, with both sides framing the ceasefire as an opportunity to advance negotiations rather than a definitive resolution. Diplomatic engagement is expected to intensify in the coming days, particularly with the proposed talks in Islamabad.

While the agreement signals a de-escalation after a period of heightened tensions, the absence of a publicly verified framework and conflicting statements from key actors point to a fragile understanding that will depend on sustained diplomatic coordination and adherence to interim commitments.

The high-level statement came just days after Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iranian military installations—an operation it claims was aimed at preventing Tehran from advancing toward nuclear weapon capabilities. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks, triggering a new phase in the already volatile regional dynamics since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023.

“We affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel,” read the G7 communiqué, which also emphasized that “Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror.”

The leaders of the G7—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan—also reiterated a critical demand: “Iran can never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.”

Rising Death Toll and Escalation Fears

The conflict has already resulted in tragic civilian casualties. Iranian sources report over 220 deaths, including women and children, while Israel has confirmed 24 civilian fatalities. Both sides have accused each other of targeting civilian infrastructure, heightening fears of further escalation.

On Monday, an Israeli airstrike reportedly targeted Iran’s state broadcaster headquarters, intensifying panic among Tehran’s residents. U.S. President Donald Trump, attending the G7 summit in Canada, abruptly announced his early departure to return to Washington, citing the urgent regional developments.

In a social media post, Trump warned: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran.”

U.S. Stance: Awareness Without Involvement?

While the United States has publicly distanced itself from direct involvement in the Israeli operations, Trump admitted that Washington had prior knowledge of the strikes and called them “excellent.” Nevertheless, the U.S. has issued stern warnings to Iran not to retaliate against American personnel or assets stationed in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a series of calls with foreign counterparts in Europe to coordinate diplomatic responses and assess regional fallout. Despite the heated tensions, Washington maintains that it still seeks a nuclear agreement with Iran—underscoring the fragile balance between deterrence and diplomacy.

Nuclear Standoff: Two Realities

Iran has long denied ambitions to build nuclear weapons, insisting its nuclear activities are for peaceful energy purposes as permitted under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which it is a signatory.

In contrast, Israel—while not a party to the NPT—is widely believed to possess an undeclared nuclear arsenal. It neither confirms nor denies this status, maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity.

Call for Regional De-escalation and Gaza Ceasefire

Beyond the immediate hostilities between Israel and Iran, the G7 emphasized the need for a broader ceasefire across the Middle East, including Gaza.

“We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” the statement read.

The G7 also expressed readiness to collaborate in ensuring energy market stability, amid concerns that the conflict could disrupt global oil supply lines and inflate prices.

As tensions remain high, international observers warn that without swift and strategic diplomacy, the Israel-Iran showdown could spiral into a multi-front conflict with far-reaching global implications.

Under a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, the Islamic republic shut down the original Arak reactor in Markazi province so that it could not produce military-grade plutonium.

It also pledged that a replacement of the original reactor with a new one would support “peaceful nuclear research”.

Quoted on Sunday by the Fars news agency, Mustafa Nakhai, spokesman of the legislature’s energy commission, said “the Arak IR-20 reactor will be launched in a year from now”.

Nakhai said he was in turn quoting Mohamed Eslami, newly-appointed to head the Iranian Atomic Energy organization (AEOI).

He also quoted Eslami as saying the new IR-20 reactor at Arak will feed into the generation of a planned 8,000 MW of nuclear power, to be achieved by the construction of additional reactors, state news agency IRNA reported.

Nuclear chief Eslami also said in mid-September during a site visit to Arak that Iran wanted to establish the long-planned research facility “as quickly as possible”.

The AEOI had said early this year that it would cold test the new reactor in the first three months of the Iranian year, which began on March 21.

The 2015 nuclear deal gave Iran sanctions relief in return for tight controls on its nuclear program, monitored by the UN.

Tehran has gradually rolled back its nuclear commitments since 2019, a year after then US president Donald Trump withdrew from the multilateral deal and began reimposing sanctions.

Talks began in April in Vienna in a bid to bring the US back inside the deal, but the dialogue has been stalled since June, when ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi was elected as Iran’s president.

The Iranian regime is missing a big point that these kinds of actions are no longer effective in 2021 and conditions have changed.

On February 25, the US military carried out airstrikes in eastern Syria targeting Iran’s proxy Shia militias. This was an appropriate and justified retaliatory military response to the Iranian regime’s missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, under the new administration. 

In response, on March 3, 2021, Iran, re-launched 10 missiles at Iraq and towards Ein al-Assad, intended to create more tension to falsely show an upper hand and attempt to break up the current balance in the psyche of stakeholders.

The Iranian regime is missing a big point that these kinds of actions are no longer effective in 2021 and conditions have changed. Military rules based on correct geopolitical policy and proper timing affect the international and regional balance.

Tehran’s desperate rocket attack, however, is a sign of the regime’s stalemate inside and a result of international isolation and will shift the balance to its detriment.

On the US side, Biden knows that breaking up the current balance of power created by sacrifices of Iranian protesters and insurgents in 2018 and 2019, which persuaded Trump to adopt the “maximum pressure” policy toward the Iranian regime, is very dangerous.

No one can withstand the strong winds of change! Seeds have been sown in Iranian society in a very harsh international soil and environment over the years that must be harvested, or the crop will be ruined.

In such a situation, the position of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Friday, March 5, 2021, can seriously affect this balance. Khamenei’s announcement of a deadline to pull out of JCPOA and NPT and other bluffs has left him stuck in a deadly impasse with no way forward nor back.

Javan, a state-run newspaper wrote, “The JCPOA is dead”. Meanwhile Congressional Republicans are working on a range of measures to stop the Biden administration from reentering 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, an effort that includes a full-court press to block sanctions relief for Tehran until it fully dismantles its contested nuclear program, according to conversations with multiple GOP foreign policy leaders.

This is an effort that could be backed by mainstream Democrats, especially leaders such as Senator Robert Menendez (D., N.J.), a prominent Iran sanctions champion who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Representative Jim Banks of Indiana (R., Ind.), A member of the House Armed Services Committee, said “the Biden administration is aware it cannot capitulate to Iranian demands for sanctions relief as a prerequisite for diplomatic talks” .

While the State Department has said it is somewhat open to easing sanctions, if this is deemed to be Tehran’s unrealistic demands then the government will face a widespread backlash from US allies.

Banks said, “We will fight against any attempt by the Biden administration to return to the failed Obama strategy on Iran or to accept any ‘Iran Deal lite’ or ‘Iran Deal 2.0’”.

A glance at current Iranian society demonstrates the balance to be completely against the rulers of Iran. Currently, in Iran, the uprising of youth and the suffering people of Sistan and Balochestan has shaken the ground under Khamenei. The main concern of Khamenei and IRGC is for the critical and inflamed situation in Sistan and Balochestan to spread throughout the country.

Government systematic corruption and the looting of billions of dollars of Iranian wealth for nuclear ambitions and the cost of proxy forces have left “current wages are robbing the livelihood of workers.”

Regimes’ official’s corruption has plagued Iran’s economy, with “the value of the minimum wage this year being less than half of what it was in 2019 and a third of the average of 1990 to 2018.” Khamenei is trying to get help from his ally “Coronavirus” and postpones vaccination as much as he can with various justifications to keep people paralyzed and worried and immobilized for his regime to survive.

Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Rouhani are trying to contain the situation by using IRGC to prevent an outburst of the public’s anger. But despite these efforts, nationwide protests by disadvantaged groups, including retirees, have grown steadily over the past two months. The protests of the people of Balochestan have shown the explosive state of Iranian society and how a spark could create an uprising.

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.