World leaders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, perceive Erdoğan’s crumbling strongman image

Nearly two million Turks have gathered in Istanbul to protest President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decision to arrest his main political rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, on what critics call fabricated corruption and terrorism charges. The move has ignited widespread outrage across Turkey, with demonstrators denouncing Erdoğan’s authoritarian grip on power and calling for his immediate resignation.

The arrest of İmamoğlu, who served as Istanbul’s mayor and was seen as Erdoğan’s strongest challenger in upcoming elections, has fueled speculation that the Turkish president is attempting to eliminate political competition ahead of a crucial vote. Protesters have taken to the streets chanting, “Enough is enough!” and “Turkey will not be silenced!” as security forces struggle to contain the surging crowds.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a Middle East expert, has been vocal about the situation. “Turks are not stupid; they see through Erdoğan’s cynicism and comment on its ironies,” Rubin stated. “Erdoğan accuses İmamoğlu of corruption, but Erdoğan not only has pending corruption cases dating to his own tenure as mayor, but he has since accumulated billions of dollars in unexplained wealth. He accuses İmamoğlu of supporting terror, but Turkish journalists photographed Erdoğan’s intelligence service transporting weaponry to an Al Qaeda affiliate in Turkey.”

The controversy deepened when Erdoğan’s government reportedly annulled İmamoğlu’s university degree, a requirement for presidential candidates. Rubin pointed out the hypocrisy in this move, noting, “Not only was Erdoğan’s own degree fraudulent, but the grounds for dismissing İmamoğlu’s degree were the illegitimacy of the university he attended in occupied northern Cyprus. As with its universities, so too is it with its entire regime.”

The international community is closely watching the unfolding crisis, with speculation growing about how world leaders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, perceive Erdoğan’s crumbling strongman image. “Trump sees himself as a winner and despises losers,” Rubin said. “Whereas he may once have seen Erdoğan as a strongman, it is now clear that the would-be sultan wears no clothes. Trump and his team are correct: Turkey is important, but Turkey and Erdoğan are not synonymous. Simply put, Trump should dump Erdoğan.”

The massive protests, among the largest in Turkey’s modern history, highlight a growing sense of urgency among citizens determined to reclaim their democracy. The Turkish military and law enforcement agencies now face a crucial test of allegiance. “Turkey’s elite soldiers swear allegiance to the state and the people of Turkey, not one man who holds the constitution and rule of law with disdain,” Rubin emphasized.

With tensions reaching a boiling point, many analysts fear that Turkey is approaching a breaking point. Some protesters argue that peaceful demonstrations may not be enough to bring about real change in a system they see as rigged in Erdoğan’s favor.

Rubin did not mince words when outlining what may be necessary for political transformation: “The Turkish protestors now fight for the soul of their nation. Every protestor on the streets of Istanbul is as consequential for the future of modern Turkey as was Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Protests might matter in democracies; however, Turkey is not a democracy. To succeed, they must march on Turkey’s palaces and prisons. If Erdoğan does not helicopter to the airport and flee the country, they should detain him, pending trial, even if passions are such that those who reach him first might simply hang him and release political prisoners, ranging from İmamoğlu to detained Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş and philanthropist Osman Kavala.”

Rubin also hinted at the possibility of internal betrayal within Erdoğan’s own ranks. “Erdoğan, like Bashar al-Assad in Syria, may be tempted to hang on. While the United States will never say directly, the White House likely would not look askance at regional states that would offer reward to any Erdoğan bodyguard who turns their guns on the would-be despot to arrest him or, if he resists, to kill him.”

The coming days will be critical for Turkey’s political future. Will the protests succeed in toppling Erdoğan’s rule, or will the regime resort to even harsher crackdowns to suppress dissent? What is clear, however, is that Turkey is at an inflection point. As Rubin put it, “The age of Erdoğan must end. Turks can either take the next step, or they will have no one but themselves to blame for Turkey’s descent into dictatorship, state failure, and eventual civil war.”

“The U.S. Mission in Turkey has received credible reports of potential terrorist attacks and kidnappings against U.S. citizens and foreign nationals in Istanbul, including against the U.S. Consulate General, as well as potentially other locations in Turkey”, read an official statement on embassy’s website.

Embassy advised all U.S. citizens to exercise heightened caution in locations where Americans or foreigners may gather, including large office buildings or shopping malls.

All the potential victims of the anticipated terror attacks are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant, to avoid crowds while keeping a low profile, and to monitor local media for updates.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used to send shockwaves to Beijing with his outspoken support of China’s Uighur minority, a predominantly Turkic-speaking Muslim group in Xinjiang that is subject to horrific human rights violations. “The incidents in China are, simply put, a genocide,” Erdogan said in 2009, when he was prime minister. And it wasn’t just empty words: Turkey has been a safe haven for Uighurs fleeing persecution ever since the Chinese Communist Party took control of Xinjiang in 1949 and hosts one of the largest Uighur diaspora populations in the world.

Then came a sudden, unexpected switch. In 2016, Turkey arrested Abdulkadir Yapcan, a prominent Uighur political activist living in the country since 2001 and initiated his extradition. In 2017, Turkey and China signed an agreement allowing extradition even if the purported offense is only illegal in one of the two countries. Since early 2019, Turkey has arrested hundreds of Uighurs and sent them to deportation centers. And Erdogan’s remarks have turned diplomatically bland, just like any Uighur-related coverage in newspapers controlled by Erdogan and his supporters.

Erdogan’s remarkable U-turn has a simple explanation: His regime and Turkey’s economy are in crisis. With few other friends, Ankara is counting on Beijing to patch things up, and that requires adherence to Beijing’s talking points. Erdogan’s problems are mounting: Turkey’s economy has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated its primary economic sector, tourism. As Erdogan tightens his control over the central bank and the courts, foreign reserves are shrinking, the trade deficit is rising, and the Turkish lira is plunging. Once seen as a model of democracy and economic development in the region, Turkey is now an authoritarian country; on the Liberal Democracy Index compiled by the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute, Turkey now ranks among the bottom 20, closer to China than the developed countries to which it once aspired. Western companies and investors, once attracted to Turkey’s fast-growing economy and population, are staying away.

China’s appetite for expansion into Western Asia and Europe offers Erdogan a lifeline. Cooperation has expanded exponentially: Since 2016, the two countries have signed 10 bilateral agreements including on health and nuclear energy. China is now Turkey’s second-largest import partner after Russia. China has invested $3 billion in Turkey between 2016 and 2019 and intends to double that by the end of next year. Cash flowing in from China has become critical for Erdogan’s regime and has strengthened the president’s hand at crucial moments.

When the lira’s value dropped by more than 40 percent in 2018, the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provided the Turkish government $3.6 billion in loans for ongoing energy and transportation projects. In June 2019, in the wake of Istanbul municipal elections that indicated crumbling support for Erdogan, China’s central bank transferred $1 billion—the largest cash inflow under a swap agreement between the two countries’ central banks that was last renewed in 2012. As Erdogan’s popularity has dwindled this year amid the coronavirus crisis and a severe currency shortage, China came to the rescue again in June. Beijing is now allowing Turkish companies to use the Chinese yuan to make trade payments, allowing them easier access to Chinese liquidity—another step up in financial cooperation.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers Turkey a source of fresh cash—and Beijing a strategic foothold on the Mediterranean Sea.

As part of the infrastructure-building initiative, Turkey completed a railroad from Kars in eastern Turkey via Tbilisi, Georgia, to Baku, Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea, from where it links to transportation networks to China. In 2015, a Chinese consortium bought 65 percent of Turkey’s third-largest container terminal, Kumport, in Istanbul, acquiring a pivotal position in container transportation. Chinese investors also helped salvage Erdogan’s own poorly managed megaprojects. In January 2020, a Chinese consortium bought 51 percent of the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge connecting Europe and Asia across the Bosporus after revenue projections failed and the Italian-Turkish consortium controlling the bridge wanted out.

The BRI projects help shore up Erdogan in other ways. They have reinforced Turkey’s strategy to assert itself as a transportation corridor and have boosted Erdogan’s political brand by promoting him as someone who can develop infrastructure, attract funds, and undertake large-scale projects. And the cash keeps coming: This year, China’s Export and Credit Insurance Corp. committed up to $5 billion for Turkey’s Wealth Fund, to be used for BRI projects. The fund’s limited transparency and accountability raise further concerns about where the money is going and Turkey’s ability to repay.

Energy, another sector whose development has been key to Erdogan’s power, has seen even greater investment under the BRI umbrella. China is providing $1.7 billion to build the Hunutlu coal-fired power plant on the Mediterranean Sea, projected to produce 3 percent of the country’s electricity when it is completed. Ankara plans to sign a deal with China’s State Nuclear Power Technology Corp. to build Turkey’s third nuclear power plant.

Beyond infrastructure, Sino-Turkish cooperation involves deepening bilateral military and security ties, including in intelligence and cyberwarfare. Turkey’s Bora ballistic missile—modeled on the Chinese B-611 missile, introduced in 2017, and deployed in the Turkish military operation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in May 2019—is a product of bilateral defense cooperation, as was the participation of Chinese military officers in Turkey’s Ephesus military exercise in 2018.

Huawei, which has been designated a national security threat in the United States and elsewhere due to its ties to the Chinese government and military, has no such opposition in Turkey. Its share in the Turkish market has grown from only 3 percent in 2017 to 30 percent in 2019. Allegations about Chinese use of telecommunications infrastructure for state surveillance and suppression are especially worrisome in Turkey, where the population relies on the internet and social media for information due to strict control of other media channels. Another Chinese technology company, ZTE, took over 48 percent of Netas, Turkey’s key telecommunications equipment manufacturer, in 2016. Netas manages pivotal projects including the new Istanbul Airport’s telecommunications and the digitalization of national health data.

For now, strengthening relations between China and Turkey appears to benefit both sides. China has found a highly strategic foothold in Turkey—a NATO member with a large market for energy, infrastructure, defense technology, and telecommunications at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa. For Turkey and Erdogan, China provides desperately needed resources to fund high-profile megaprojects and maintain the veneer of development despite the crippling economic reality underneath. Just as importantly, Chinese cash helps Erdogan avoid seeking help from Western-dominated institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, which would require him to commit to reforms and other measures that could undermine his unfettered control over the country’s economy.

Article first published on ForeignPolicy.com.

Huseyin Goksoy, a tailor who was so stressed about going hungry during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic that he was briefly bedridden with a hernia, is increasingly worried about his future as Turkey strains to curb poverty.

He is not alone.

Though a two-month lockdown ended in June, about four million Turks still rely on state aid to get by, while even more informal workers missed out on most of the financial support.

Polls and academic research paint a grim picture ahead of the day when President Tayyip Erdogan’s government is expected to lift a temporary ban on layoffs, possibly as soon as November.

Goksoy, 48, makes face masks to help cover losses from earlier this year when he could not get a subsidized small-business loan because there was no guarantor in his conservative neighborhood in central Istanbul.

“People don’t get dressed up when they don’t work, so I only repaired tears and it was 5-10 liras ($1) a day – if that,” he said. “I still can’t send money to my kids when they want it. If I do a bad job, I’d go hungry.”

Data and polls show that fear and disillusionment like this are unprecedented across the labor market. Those hardest hit are the same Turks who benefited from years of Erdogan’s welfare policies that helped to sharply reduce income inequalities.

One study by Turkish economists Ayse Aylin Bayar, Oner Guncavdi and Haluk Levent predicts the number of impoverished Turks could double this year to nearly 20 million, and set back by two decades progress in narrowing inequality.

That would effectively wipe out the successes of Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and could test his staunchest voter base at the next general election set for 2023.

Goksoy – whose shop is near the president’s childhood home – said he still supported AKP though he would change his mind if he thought the party was no longer honest.

Unsustainable

Erdogan said on Monday the economy would emerge stronger from the pandemic even though its effects linger, adding that the government’s 100 billion lira ($13 billion) aid program helped lower-income households.

Representatives of the presidency and the finance ministry, which administers the aid, did not immediately respond to questions about rising poverty.

The aid scheme partially covers wages of many registered workers and funded some 2 million needy households. Big cities run by the main opposition party chipped in other funds and food supplies.

But Turkey’s mix of low-skilled labor in which a third of workers informally earn cash daily, a private sector dominated by small businesses and public finances already strained from a 2018-2019 recession leaves the country uniquely vulnerable.

Reserves at the central bank, which backstopped much of the pandemic response, have fallen sharply and accelerated a plunge in the Turkish lira to all-time lows. That in turn raises prices for basic imported goods.

By law, Erdogan can extend the ban on layoffs beyond November to mid-2021 to shield workers, but at a fiscal cost.

“These are not sustainable policies,” said Guncavdi, an economist at Istanbul Technical University who co-authored the study predicting a jump in poverty.

“When they are removed, there is potential for upheaval with mass layoffs, a spike in destitution, family structures being tested and potential demonizing of minorities and refugees.”

Turkey’s 3.6 million Syrian refugees faced backlash in past downturns, and those left unemployed this year had little safety net.

Retired florist Kemal Erdogan, 76, said this week he supports AKP but added that with the poor now getting poorer it was clear Turkey welcomed too many foreigners who are “living better lives than you and I”.Slideshow (2 Images)

Lockdown Anxities

An unprecedented collapse in employment endured after the lockdown was lifted in June and July, driven by workers not formally on payrolls, government data showed on Thursday.

A record 1.4 million were too discouraged to search for work, up nearly threefold from a year ago. Of those who had jobs last month, nearly half were “very afraid” of losing them by winter, a poll by Istanbul Economics Research found.

Can Selcuki, general manager of the consultancy, said that likely reflects workers’ suspicion that they will be laid off “the minute” the layoff ban is lifted. He added that support for Erdogan’s ruling alliance dipped to 44% in a poll this month, from 46% in August after a summer bounce.

Turkey, like several other countries, banned layoffs in April when it also closed most businesses, shut borders and intercity travel and adopted partial stay-at-home orders.

Large gatherings were curbed, leaving Mehmet Coskun, a wedding drummer without social security, only a third of his usual gigs. “I don’t know what to do when my loan payments come along,” he said. “Perhaps I can sell water or clean buildings.”

Such lost jobs in the service, tourism and construction sectors are hurting Turkey’s poorest households the most, according to the World Bank. The bank, however, predicts that the poverty rate will rise less than forecast in the Turkish study, to about 12% from 10%, contained in part by the state aid.

A recent rise in coronavirus cases to early May levels only raises anxieties.

Meryem Yildirim, who opened a women’s clothing shop in Istanbul two months ago, said a return to lockdown was her worst nightmare.

“All small businesses think this way now,” said the mother of two, adding she took out a loan to pay rent and to cover a second loan on the shop.

(For a graphic on discouraged workers, click here)

(For a graphic on employment and workforce participation, click here)

($1 = 7.4894 liras)

The prophecies about the conquest of Constantinople made by Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) are yet to happen before the end of times, and it has nothing to do with Ottoman emperor Sultan Mehmet Fatih…

All the Prophetic narrations which are also known as “Ahadith” that talk about the conquest of Constantinople are related to the end of times—especially during the sequence of the events like the arrival of the Antichrist, the emergence of the Mahdi, the descent of Jesus Christ, till the last Hour. So technically, the best leader who’ll conquer the modern-day secular Turkey is yet to emerge.

.لاَ تَقُومُ السَّاعَةُ حَتَّى يُقَاتِلَ الْمُسْلِمُونَ التُّرْكَ قَوْمًا وُجُوهُهُمْ كَالْمَجَانِّ الْمُطْرَقَةِ يَلْبَسُونَ الشَّعَرَ وَيَمْشُونَ فِي الشَّعَرِ

Abu Huraira reported Allah’s Messenger (ﷺ) as saying: “The Last Hour would not come until the Muslims fight with the Turks – a people whose faces would be like hammered shields wearing clothes of hair and walking (with shoes) of hair.” [Sahih Muslim Book 54, Hadith 79]

حَدَّثَنَا مَحْمُودُ بْنُ غَيْلاَنَ، حَدَّثَنَا أَبُو دَاوُدَ، عَنْ شُعْبَةَ، عَنْ يَحْيَى بْنِ سَعِيدٍ، عَنْ أَنَسِ بْنِ مَالِكٍ، قَالَ فَتْحُ الْقُسْطُنْطِينِيَّةِ مَعَ قِيَامِ السَّاعَةِ ‏.‏ قَالَ هَذَا حَدِيثٌ غَرِيبٌ ‏.‏ وَالْقُسْطَنْطِينِيَّةُ هِيَ مَدِينَةُ الرُّومِ تُفْتَحُ عِنْدَ خُرُوجِ الدَّجَّالِ وَالْقُسْطَنْطِينِيَّةُ قَدْ فُتِحَتْ فِي زَمَانِ بَعْضِ أَصْحَابِ النَّبِيِّ صلى الله عليه وسلم. ‏

Anas bin Malik said: “Constantinople will be conquered with the coming of the Hour.” [Jami` at-Tirmidhi Book 33, Hadith 82]

The most famous Islamic contemporary scholars and the historians who lived during the time of the conquest of Constantinople such as Al-Suyuti, Al-Sakhawi, Ibn Al-Imad mentioned about the Ottoman commander Mehmet Fatih in their books describing his conquests, but they never associated him with Prophet Mohammed’s (peace be upon him) prophecies about the conquest of Constantinople.

The Hadith scholars like Imam Abu Dawood – author of Sunan, Imam Ahmad – author of Musnad Ahmad, and Imam Ibn Majah mentioned the reason for the conquest of Constantinople, that is—first the Muslims and Romans will make a strong alliance to fight a third enemy, then the Romans will betray, which will lead to the fierce fight between Muslims and the Romans at a place called Al-Ghouta, that will eventually lead to Al-Malhamah.

The great Scholar of Hadith Shiekh Ahmed Shakir stated that, “Conquest of Constantinople, Turkey which was prophesied in the Ahadith will be in a near or far future which only Allah Almighty knows. The correct conquest is that, when Muslims return to the religion which they had left.”

The Hadith scholar continues, “As for the Turkish conquest that was before our time, it was a prelude to the greatest conquest. Then it came out of the hands of the Muslims, since their government announced that it is a non-Islamic and a non-religious government.” [Source: حاشية عمدة التفسير عن ابن كثير ٢/٢٥٦]

It’s as clear as a day that the prophecies about the conquest of Constantinople made by Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him) are yet to happen before the end of times, and it has nothing to do with Ottoman emperor Sultan Mehmet Fatih, while the sequence of events are clearly mentioned in the prophetic narrations—which don’t collide with Fateh’s invasion of Constantinople.

Dr. Areej Hussain is specialized in Arabic Studies from the American university of Cairo.

Saudi Arabia’s public prosecutor stated that, “it has concluded its invetigations and due process in the case which included 31 individuals of whom 21 individuals have been arrested, and 10 individuals have been called in for questioning without arrest as there was no basis for their detention”, according to a statement released by Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The MFA statement claims that the investigation yielded the results. 

#STATEMENT by the Public Prosecutor regarding the murder of citizen Jamal bin Ahmed bin Hamza Khashoggi (may his soul Rest In Peace). pic.twitter.com/745x7OABkx

— Foreign Ministry ?? (@KSAmofaEN) December 23, 2019

Firstly, the indictment of 11 individuals in this case and the filing of criminal charges againt these individuals in the criminal court of Riyadh.

Secondly, the criminal court of Riyadh rendered its decision regarding the 11 individuals who were indicted and charged as follows: (1) Capital punishment for five individuals for committing and directly participating in the murder of the victim. (2) Different sentences amouting to a total of 24 years in prison for three individuals for their role in covering up this crime and violating the law. (3) The court dismissed the public prosecutor’s charges against three individuals and found them to be guilty.

Thirdly, the public prosecution did not file charges against 10 individuals and released them due to insufficient evidence.

Jamal Hamza Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul after a brawl when he entered to collect some official documents. However, the murder was politicized to disturb the Saudi Royal family’s succession hierarchy. 

Khashoggi’s son Salah tweeted in September this year that enemies of Saudi Arabia in the east and west are exploiting his father’s death in order to undermine the Kingdom and its leadership.

He expressed absolute confidence in Saudi Arabia’s judiciary, and the Kingdom’s ability to retrieve justice from the perpetrators of this henous crime.

“I will be as Jamal Khashoggi was, loyal to God, then to my country and it’s leadership,” he added.