Civilian fatalities attributed to security forces in Burkina Faso and Mali have exceeded those caused by jihadist groups, according to recent data and rights assessments, raising concerns about the conduct of counterinsurgency operations and their broader implications for regional stability.

Analysts and rights groups say the pattern reflects a troubling escalation in abuses by state forces and allied militias, particularly in areas where governments are battling insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State. The findings come at a time when military-led governments in both countries are seeking to consolidate control following coups and recalibrate their international alliances.

Human Rights Watch researcher Ilaria Allegrozzi said Burkina Faso’s security forces and affiliated militias “appear to be more brutal and violent” than militant groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda-linked coalition active across the Sahel. Her assessment underscores a shift in the dynamics of violence, where counterinsurgency measures themselves are increasingly contributing to civilian harm.

The data highlights a regional pattern in which government responses to insurgency are marked by alleged extrajudicial killings, collective punishment, and insufficient accountability mechanisms. Allegrozzi said such trends point to broader issues of military indiscipline that risk undermining the effectiveness of security operations.

Widespread civilian casualties linked to state forces could have significant strategic consequences, analysts said. Beyond the immediate human cost, such incidents may erode public trust in governments and create conditions that enable militant groups to strengthen their narratives and expand recruitment.

Insurgent organisations operating in the Sahel have long sought to portray themselves as alternatives to state authority, particularly in rural and marginalised regions. Reports of abuses by national armies may reinforce these narratives, complicating efforts to restore state legitimacy and control.

The situation also carries implications for international engagement in the region. The United States has signalled interest in improving relations with Sahelian governments, even as Burkina Faso and Mali have distanced themselves from traditional Western partners, including France, following their respective coups.

However, allegations of human rights violations could complicate diplomatic and security cooperation.Both Burkina Faso and Mali have undergone significant political transitions in recent years, with military juntas assuming power amid rising insecurity. These governments have prioritised aggressive counterinsurgency campaigns, often relying on local militias and volunteer forces to supplement national armies.

Rights groups have repeatedly raised concerns about the conduct of these auxiliary forces, which are frequently accused of targeting civilians suspected of supporting or collaborating with jihadist groups. Such accusations are difficult to verify independently in many cases due to restricted access to conflict zones and limited transparency from authorities.

Spokespeople for the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Similarly, neither the Burkinabe government nor the Sharia Committee of JNIM in Burkina Faso responded to inquiries from Human Rights Watch regarding the allegations.

The reported pattern of violence reflects the complexity of the conflict environment in the Sahel, where distinguishing between combatants and civilians is often challenging. Armed groups operate in remote areas with limited state presence, and local populations are frequently caught between competing forces.

Despite these challenges, analysts stress that adherence to international humanitarian law remains essential for maintaining credibility and effectiveness in counterinsurgency operations. Failure to do so, they say, risks perpetuating cycles of violence that ultimately benefit insurgent groups.

The findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that military-led approaches alone may be insufficient to address the root causes of instability in the region. Issues such as governance deficits, economic marginalisation, and intercommunal tensions continue to fuel conflict dynamics across the Sahel.

As Burkina Faso and Mali navigate their security challenges, the conduct of their armed forces is likely to remain under scrutiny from international observers and rights organisations.

The balance between combating insurgency and protecting civilian populations is expected to be a key factor shaping both domestic legitimacy and external partnerships.

In a striking piece titled “All Roads Lead to Pakistan,” Blackburn deploys rhyme and rhythm to weave together a litany of global terror attacks — from the 9/11 bombings in New York and the 7/7 transit attacks in London, to the 2008 Mumbai carnage and unrest in Kashmir. Each stanza ends with a refrain that echoes his central argument: “All roads, all roads lead to Pakistan.”

The poem, now circulating widely across social media platforms, takes aim at Pakistan’s role as a hub for extremist networks. Though not an unfamiliar assertion in diplomatic circles, Blackburn’s decision to express this through verse has added a layer of emotional resonance that policy reports and press briefings rarely capture.

9/11, 7/7 — the skies burned red,
The flags of terror left defenceless dead.
From cave to command, from plot to plan,
All roads, all roads lead to Pakistan.
26/11 — Mumbai bled,
Ash and flame where children fled.
22/4 — in Pahalgam’s grace,
A meadow fell — a shattered place.
From Kalashnikov to prayer and ban,
All roads, all roads lead to Pakistan.
New York weeps, and London mourns,
Bali’s beaches, Kashmir’s thorns.
From training camps to hidden hand,
The signal’s clear, the airwaves scanned —
Terror stirs where shadows span:
All roads, all roads lead to Pakistan.

A specialist in international relations and counterterrorism, Blackburn has been a frequent commentator in European think tank discussions on radicalization, cross-border extremism, and human rights in South Asia. His current role with the EBF — a group that advocates for secularism and minority rights in Bangladesh — has brought him closer to diaspora concerns about religious extremism and state complicity.

His poetic pivot comes amid growing scrutiny of Pakistan’s domestic policies and its relationships with jihadist groups. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which had previously grey-listed the country for terror financing concerns, lifted the designation in 2022 — a move that critics like Blackburn viewed as premature.

The poem’s structure is simple, almost nursery-like in its cadence, but its content is anything but gentle. References to “Kalashnikov to prayer and ban” and “terror stirs where shadows span” leave little ambiguity about Blackburn’s message: international terrorism, regardless of where it strikes, has operational links that often trace back to Islamabad’s orbit.

Whether praised for its courage or criticized for its bluntness, “All Roads Lead to Pakistan” has succeeded in sparking conversation — and perhaps that was Blackburn’s goal all along.