Just four months after leaving the League party, one of Meloni’s coalition partners, Vannacci says his new party, Futuro Nazionale, has attracted nearly 100,000 paying members and is polling at around 4% nationally, a level that could prove influential in a closely contested election.

The rise of the former paratrooper presents a strategic dilemma for Meloni. Embracing Vannacci could alienate moderate voters who have supported her efforts to reposition her government as a mainstream conservative force, while ignoring him risks allowing a rival on the right to gain further momentum.

Futuro Nazionale is due to be formally launched this weekend and is positioning itself as a nationalist alternative to the governing coalition, accusing Meloni and her allies of abandoning core right-wing principles.

“We represent that right which is not faded, not wavering, not fearful,” Vannacci said earlier this year, arguing that the government had softened its positions on European integration, migration and law-and-order issues.

The 57-year-old first gained national prominence after publishing a controversial book advocating traditional values while criticizing LGBTQ rights, migration and feminist movements. The publication led to criticism from Italy’s defense establishment and his suspension from active military service.

League leader and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini later brought Vannacci into the party, helping him secure election to the European Parliament in 2024. However, the alliance proved short-lived, with Vannacci leaving in February to establish his own movement.

Political analysts say his emergence is likely to intensify competition within Italy’s right-wing electorate.

Sofia Ventura, a political science professor at the University of Bologna, said Salvini’s decision to promote Vannacci had ultimately strengthened a future rival and could pressure both Salvini and Meloni to adopt tougher positions to retain conservative voters.

An SWG opinion poll published on Friday placed Futuro Nazionale at 4.6%, narrowing the gap with the League, which stood at 5.8%. The same survey showed a loose alliance of center-left parties marginally ahead of the governing coalition.

Vannacci has aligned himself in the European Parliament with nationalist and Eurosceptic forces, including Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), a stance that has complicated prospects for cooperation with more moderate coalition partners such as Forza Italia.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, leader of Forza Italia, said he had no contact with Vannacci, although he did not rule out future discussions before the next election.

Since taking office in 2022, Meloni has sought to transform her Brothers of Italy party from a hard-right opposition movement into a governing force accepted by European and transatlantic partners. Her support for Ukraine and efforts to maintain constructive relations with Brussels have strengthened her international standing.

Vannacci’s platform challenges that approach. He combines criticism of the European Union with skepticism about Western military support for Ukraine and has argued against what he describes as unconditional backing for Kyiv.

His movement has already attracted eight lawmakers from coalition parties, highlighting concerns within government ranks that his influence could grow further.

Whether Futuro Nazionale develops into a lasting political force may depend on its ability to build a broader organization beyond Vannacci’s personal popularity. For now, however, his rise has added a new source of uncertainty to Italy’s increasingly competitive political landscape.

Voting in the industrial city of about 62,000 residents has drawn national attention after the mayoral candidate of the right-wing League party included two Muslim candidates on his electoral list, a move that sparked controversy within the party and highlighted shifting demographic realities ahead of national elections next year.

Located in the Lombardy region amid factories and rice fields, Vigevano has a foreign-born population of roughly 15 percent, including large communities with roots in Egypt and Romania. The city also has a growing number of naturalized citizens and second-generation Italians whose political influence is becoming increasingly significant.

The League, led nationally by Matteo Salvini, currently governs the city. Salvini has advocated tough immigration policies and has argued that citizenship should be revoked from second-generation immigrants convicted of serious crimes. Against that backdrop, local mayoral candidate Riccardo Ghia drew attention by selecting two Muslim candidates in an effort to broaden the party’s appeal among immigrant-origin voters.

One of those candidates, Hagar Haggag, a 20-year-old Italian of Egyptian heritage, said she had faced threats and abuse since announcing her candidacy. She attributed much of the backlash to her decision to wear an Islamic headscarf.

Haggag said she had not experienced discrimination within the local League organization and noted that a previous League administration had permitted the opening of a Muslim prayer hall in a converted industrial building in 2022. She said her campaign was partly motivated by a desire to challenge stereotypes surrounding Muslim women and their participation in public life.

The second Muslim candidate, Ibrahim Hussein, serves as a spokesman for the local prayer hall and has described his candidacy as an example of successful integration. In public statements, he has argued that immigrants who respect Italian laws should be fully accepted within society.

Campaigning concluded on Friday with Ghia defending his decision, saying political participation should be based on respect for civic rules rather than religious identity.

The debate has revealed broader fractures within Italy’s governing coalition. While the national League leadership distanced itself from the Vigevano candidates, the ruling Giorgia Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, backed the local ticket. Coalition partner Forza Italia, generally regarded as more moderate on immigration issues, supported a separate mayoral slate.

The divisions have created an opening for Roberto Vannacci, a former League figure who recently launched the nationalist party Futuro Nazionale. During a campaign visit to Vigevano this month, Vannacci delivered a speech focused heavily on immigration and public security.

His local ally, lawyer Furio Suvilla, has campaigned on stricter security measures, including deploying the army to address public disorder around the city’s railway station and closing the Muslim prayer hall.
Political analysts say the contest reflects broader demographic and electoral shifts occurring across Italy.

According to sociologist Maurizio Ambrosini, candidates with immigrant backgrounds remain relatively uncommon in Italian politics compared with countries such as France and Germany, but several right-wing parties are increasingly seeking to attract voters and candidates from immigrant communities.

On the center-left, candidate Sabrine Hamrouni, whose father emigrated from Tunisia in the 1990s, said she hoped political fragmentation on the right would benefit her campaign.

Born and raised in Vigevano, she said questions of identity and belonging remain central for many residents with immigrant roots despite their long-standing ties to the city.

The election is being closely watched as an indicator of how Italy’s evolving social landscape may reshape political competition ahead of next year’s national vote.