Democrats are seeking to regain support among Latino voters in South Florida ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as economic concerns and immigration policies under U.S. President Donald Trump test the Republican Party’s long-standing dominance in the region.

Republican strength among Cuban and Venezuelan communities has underpinned the party’s electoral success in Miami-Dade County over the past decade, including a decisive shift in the 2024 presidential election when the county backed the GOP for the first time in more than 30 years.

However, interviews with business leaders, voters and political figures suggest that rising living costs and dissatisfaction with aspects of federal policy could be softening that support.Democratic strategists and voters said the party sees an opportunity to rebuild coalitions among Latino communities, even if immediate electoral gains remain uncertain.

Marta Arnold, a Cuban-born voter who left the island during the 1959 revolution and supported Kamala Harris in 2024, said there was growing openness among some voters to reconsider political alignments.Recent local election outcomes have provided encouragement for Democrats.

Emily Gregory won a Florida House district in March that includes areas around Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, flipping a seat the Republican candidate had carried by double digits in 2024. In December, Democrat Eileen Higgins secured a decisive victory in the Miami mayoral race against a Trump-backed candidate.

Despite these gains, Republican leaders and supporters say the party’s base remains resilient. Interviews with GOP voters and insiders indicate that while concerns over the economy and policy direction exist, they have not yet translated into a broad shift in voting patterns.

Small business owner Juan Cardona, who operates a clothing store in Miami’s Little Havana district, described the political landscape as competitive, suggesting that voter preferences remain fluid but not decisively tilted.Democrats have increased outreach efforts in the region, organising town halls, door-to-door campaigns and voter registration drives ahead of the August 18 Florida primary.

Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin has directed additional resources toward mobilisation efforts in the state, according to party officials.Immigration policy has emerged as a central issue influencing voter sentiment.

Critics of the administration’s enforcement measures say deportations and related actions have had a tangible impact on communities with large immigrant populations. South Florida is home to more than 250,000 Venezuelans and approximately 1.2 million Cubans, according to data cited from the Pew Research Center.

Some voters said the effects of enforcement policies are widely felt, with families and social networks directly affected. Others, however, continue to back stricter immigration measures, reflecting the diversity of political views within Latino communities.

Republican officials maintain that their support among Latino voters in South Florida remains intact, arguing that economic priorities and long-standing ideological alignment continue to favour the party.

They point to recent electoral performance as evidence that the GOP’s position in the region is not significantly eroding.

The evolving political dynamics in Miami-Dade County are expected to serve as an indicator of broader national trends among Latino voters, whose preferences have become increasingly influential in closely contested elections.