Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung that recovery timelines would vary across countries, with some producers facing longer setbacks than others. He said overall output in the region was expected to return to pre-war levels in roughly two years, citing uneven infrastructure damage and differing production capacities.

He cautioned that markets may be underestimating the consequences of continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas shipments. While cargoes dispatched before the outbreak of hostilities have largely reached their destinations, he said the absence of new shipments in March was beginning to create supply gaps, particularly for Asian markets.

“No new tankers were loaded in March,” Birol said, adding that if the strait remains closed, the shortfall could translate into sustained upward pressure on global energy prices.The disruption comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which have curtailed production and complicated export logistics.

Energy analysts have pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical vulnerability, handling a significant share of global seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas flows.Birol said the IEA remained prepared to intervene through coordinated releases of emergency oil reserves, following a similar move earlier in March aimed at stabilizing markets.

He added that while such action was not yet imminent, it remained under active consideration should supply conditions deteriorate further.

Among the ships that passed through the waterway were five vessels that had last loaded cargoes from Iran, including oil products and metals, while three liquefied petroleum gas carriers were bound for destinations including China and India.A Panama-flagged tanker carrying LPG from the United Arab Emirates was headed to Indonesia, while two other tankers loaded with refined products from Bahrain were en route to Mozambique and Thailand, respectively, according to the data.

Shipping activity also included a Liberian-flagged tanker transporting around 500,000 barrels of UAE naphtha to Ulsan in South Korea, and a very large crude carrier hauling roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi oil toward Taiwan. Another vessel carrying about 780,000 barrels of Das crude from the UAE was bound for Sri Lanka.

Additional cargoes moving through the strait included fertiliser shipments from Qatar to the UAE and petroleum coke exports from Saudi Arabia to Italy.

The uptick in vessel movements comes after weeks of disruption linked to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, which had sharply curtailed tanker traffic through one of the world’s most vital energy transit routes.

Donald Trump said on Sunday that U.S. forces would start blockading maritime traffic to Iranian ports, escalating tensions after negotiations failed to produce an agreement to end the conflict, putting a fragile two-week ceasefire at risk.

US Central Command said the blockade would take effect at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) and would apply to all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports across the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It added that freedom of navigation through Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations would not be impeded.

Shipping data showed several vessels adjusting routes in response. The Malta-flagged very large crude carrier Agios Fanourios I reversed course after attempting to enter the Gulf and is now anchored near the Gulf of Oman.

Other tankers, including the Pakistan-flagged Shalamar and Khairpur, continued operations, heading toward the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait respectively to load cargo.

The Liberia-flagged VLCC Mombasa B also transited the strait earlier on Sunday and is currently ballasting in the Gulf, according to vessel tracking data.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any military vessels approaching the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and would face a “decisive” response.

Despite rising tensions, shipping data showed that three fully laden supertankers passed through the strait on Saturday, appearing to be among the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire agreement was reached last week.