Once regarded as a model for universal welfare in South Asia, Sri Lanka is now confronting rising food insecurity, strained public services and widening social vulnerability, prompting renewed calls from economists and rights advocates for a development model centered on universal entitlements rather than austerity-led growth.

For decades, Sri Lanka was recognized for its relatively strong public investments in education, healthcare and food subsidies, which helped establish high social indicators compared with many countries at similar income levels. Universal schooling, accessible healthcare and broad-based welfare programs were often cited as pillars of the country’s post-independence development strategy.

But recent years have seen that framework come under increasing pressure.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s 2025 Hunger Map and the World Food Programme’s 2024 Household Food Security Overview, around one million people in Sri Lanka are now chronically undernourished, while nearly nine million more struggle to access sufficient nutritious food. Nearly four in ten households report inadequate diets, reflecting a sharp deterioration in food security in a country that was once largely self-sufficient in food production and a major seafood exporter.

The figures come against the backdrop of Sri Lanka’s prolonged economic crisis, which intensified after the country’s sovereign debt default in 2022 and triggered inflation, currency depreciation, shortages of essential goods and sweeping fiscal restructuring.

Dr. Ahilan Kadirgamar, a leading Sri Lankan economist and senior lecturer at the University of Jaffna, said the country’s current challenges reflect not only immediate economic distress but a deeper structural shift away from universal welfare protections.

He argues that austerity measures, combined with financialization and infrastructure-heavy development priorities, redirected state resources away from people-centered public services and toward projects that did not adequately protect livelihoods.

“Until recently, Sri Lanka was a country that could sustain itself and export seafood worldwide,” Kadirgamar said. “But now we are facing a situation where millions are unable to access enough nutritious food, and public institutions are under severe strain.

”According to Kadirgamar, hospitals continue to face shortages of essential medicines, universities are functioning under reduced real funding, and welfare programs have become increasingly narrow and targeted rather than universal, leaving large sections of the population exposed during periods of crisis.

He said the transition from universal subsidies toward selective welfare mechanisms has weakened the resilience of ordinary households, particularly during inflationary shocks and employment disruptions.

Kadirgamar has called for what he describes as a “Human Rights Economy,” a framework that places universal access, democratic participation and social protection at the center of economic decision-making.

Rather than treating economic planning as a technical domain reserved for specialists, he argues that citizens must have a direct role in shaping the priorities that affect their livelihoods.

“Economic policies cannot be the realm of experts,” he said. “It must be democratized. It is people’s demands that should determine economic policies.”

The concept of a Human Rights Economy has gained wider attention through advocacy by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, which frames economic governance through the lens of rights protection, equality and public accountability. The approach emphasizes that economic growth alone is insufficient if it does not translate into dignity, food security, healthcare access and social participation.

Kadirgamar said such a shift requires not only policy reform but also organized civic action.“Change will not come without action,” he said. “There needs to be coalitions organizing at every level.”He pointed to cooperatives as one practical mechanism for rebuilding resilience.

Small, democratic and community-based institutions, he said, can help reconnect producers and consumers while reducing dependence on fragile centralized supply chains and volatile global markets.In Sri Lanka, cooperative structures historically played an important role in rural development and agricultural distribution, though many weakened over time amid market liberalization and institutional decline.

Reviving such models, Kadirgamar said, could support local production while strengthening accountability and participation.“To rebuild the economy, citizens and policymakers must rethink how economic policies are made and form coalitions demanding equality, participation and universal rights,” he said.

He views the Human Rights Economy not simply as a new policy language but as a fundamental departure from the trajectory of recent decades.“That’s the context in which I understand the idea of a human rights economy,” he said. “A new framework, but one that has to completely shift from the path we have been on.”

Sri Lanka’s experience is increasingly cited in international discussions about debt, austerity and social rights, particularly as many developing economies face pressure to implement fiscal consolidation measures while managing inflation, debt servicing and weakened welfare systems.

Critics of austerity argue that reducing spending on health, education and food protection during economic recovery often deepens long-term inequality and undermines social stability, even when such measures are framed as necessary for macroeconomic reform.

Supporters of fiscal restructuring, however, argue that restoring financial credibility is essential for long-term recovery and investor confidence, especially after sovereign default.The tension between these approaches has become central to Sri Lanka’s policy debate.

The issue is also being examined through the United Nations-backed podcast series “Economies That Work for All,” produced by UN Human Rights and the UN System Staff College’s Knowledge Centre for Sustainable Development.

The series explores how human rights principles can be integrated into economic systems to support progress toward the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk has also spoken publicly about the need for rights-based economic models, particularly in countries facing sovereign debt burdens and widening inequality.

For Sri Lanka, the debate is no longer theoretical. With millions facing nutritional insecurity and public institutions under visible pressure, the question of whether recovery should be measured by fiscal balance sheets or by human well-being is becoming increasingly urgent.

What emerges from that choice may shape not only the country’s economic future, but the social contract that defines it.

A United Nations human rights report has warned that conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate sharply under the country’s de facto Taliban authorities, with women and girls facing the most severe restrictions and millions struggling amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

The assessment, presented by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk at the latest session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva, covers developments between August 2025 and January 2026. It highlights a convergence of economic decline, reduced international aid, environmental stress, and governance policies that have significantly constrained civil liberties.

According to the report, approximately 21.9 million people around 45 percent of Afghanistan’s population—are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2026. The situation has been exacerbated by a reduction in external funding, the return of nearly three million Afghans from neighboring countries during 2025, and persistent drought conditions affecting livelihoods and food security.

Türk said a series of directives issued since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 has had a “crushing impact” on the population, particularly women and girls. These measures, the report states, have effectively excluded women from most areas of public and professional life.

Since September 2025, Taliban security forces have barred Afghan women, including United Nations staff and contractors, from entering UN premises across the country. The restriction remained in place as of late January 2026, significantly limiting the organization’s operational capacity and its ability to deliver humanitarian assistance.The report also details the formal dismissal of women civil servants.

After being instructed to remain at home following the Taliban takeover while receiving a reduced monthly salary of 5,000 Afghanis, women were informed in January 2026 that their employment had been terminated without due process or compensation. The UN noted the absence of transparency and mitigation measures in this decision.

Educational restrictions remain in place, with girls excluded from schooling beyond the sixth grade and barred from higher education since December 2022. The report notes that medical graduation examinations were conducted in November 2025 without female candidates for a second consecutive year, following a ban on women attending medical institutes imposed in December 2024.

Additional measures have further limited women’s participation in public life. Authorities have enforced dress codes under the “Law on the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice,” and although the requirement for full-body covering appears to have been relaxed in some areas, women not adhering to prescribed attire continue to face denial of access to public transport, markets, and services.

The closure of beauty salons and the removal of books authored by women from libraries and bookstores, regardless of subject matter, have further restricted cultural and intellectual expression.“The de facto authorities have, in effect, criminalized the presence of women and girls in public life,” Türk said, adding that these policies affect access to healthcare, civic participation, and freedom of movement and expression.

The report also identifies broader human rights concerns, including the use of public executions and corporal punishment. Since 2021, authorities have carried out 12 public executions, including two during the reporting period, often in sports stadiums. Public floggings are reported to occur on a weekly basis.In late September 2025, Afghanistan experienced a nationwide shutdown of its fibre optic network, resulting in a 48-hour blackout of internet and mobile services.

The disruption affected healthcare delivery, emergency response systems, aviation operations, and financial services, according to the report, which noted that no official explanation was provided.Media freedom has also come under increased pressure. Journalists face arbitrary detention and restrictions on content, while live political talk shows have been banned since February 2025.

Broadcasting of music and drama has also been prohibited. Women journalists who remain active in the profession encounter additional barriers, including reported incidents of being silenced during official briefings.Türk described the overall situation as severe, citing widespread poverty and limited access to essential services.

“Millions of Afghans live in utter poverty, deprived of their right to adequate food, clean water, and access to education, healthcare and employment,” he said. He added that natural disasters, including two earthquakes in late 2025, have compounded existing challenges, while funding cuts have weakened humanitarian response efforts.

Security conditions along Afghanistan’s borders have also contributed to instability. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan documented 70 civilian deaths and 478 injuries attributed to Pakistani military actions during cross-border incidents in the final quarter of 2025.

The report notes that these figures exceed annual civilian casualty levels recorded in previous years, with the most intense period occurring between October 10 and 17, when more than 500 civilians were affected.In response to these developments, the UN has called on Afghanistan’s de facto authorities to reverse policies that restrict fundamental rights.

Recommendations include restoring women’s access to education and employment, halting executions with a view to abolishing the death penalty, ending arbitrary detentions, and ensuring fair trial standards. The report also calls for respect for freedom of expression and unimpeded humanitarian access.

The UN has urged member states to suspend forced returns of Afghan nationals, warning that deportees face credible risks of persecution, torture, and other serious harm. It has also emphasized the importance of supporting a newly established Independent Investigative Mechanism mandated to collect evidence of potential international crimes.

Türk noted that accountability efforts have gained some traction, referencing arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court in July 2025. He called on states to cooperate with ongoing investigations and provide financial support for accountability mechanisms.

Separately, a civil society-led People’s Tribunal for Women of Afghanistan delivered a symbolic judgment in December 2025, finding the Taliban and associated authorities responsible for crimes against humanity, including gender-based persecution and arbitrary detention.

The tribunal also called for the recognition of “gender apartheid” as a distinct international crime.Türk endorsed efforts to formalize this concept in international law, stating that defining gender apartheid would be a critical step toward addressing systemic discrimination. He urged Afghan authorities to reconsider policies excluding women from public life, emphasizing their central role in the country’s future.

“Women and girls are the present and the future, and the country cannot thrive without them.”

Child labour continues to persist across multiple sectors despite existing legal frameworks prohibiting its practice, with field reports indicating that economic pressure, weak enforcement and informal employment structures are sustaining its prevalence.

According to practitioners working with vulnerable communities, children are still engaged in labour across agriculture, small-scale manufacturing, domestic work and street-based activities.

They said the problem is particularly acute in informal sectors, where regulation is limited and oversight mechanisms are difficult to enforce.Child rights advocates reported that many families rely on supplementary income generated by children to cope with rising living costs.

They indicated that this economic dependence often leads to children entering the workforce at an early age, sometimes at the expense of their education and well-being. In such cases, work is frequently normalised within households as a necessary survival strategy.

Labour experts noted that while national legislation prohibits hazardous and exploitative child labour, implementation remains inconsistent. They said enforcement agencies are often understaffed and face challenges in identifying violations, particularly in remote or unregulated environments.

In addition, they indicated that legal provisions are sometimes undermined by gaps in monitoring and reporting systems.Field organisations working in urban and rural areas reported that children are commonly found working long hours in conditions that expose them to physical and psychological risks.

They said these include handling heavy loads, exposure to harmful substances and working in unsafe environments without protective measures. In many instances, children are also said to face verbal abuse or exploitation, with limited access to grievance mechanisms.

Education specialists highlighted a strong correlation between child labour and school dropout rates. They reported that children engaged in work often struggle to attend school regularly or complete assignments, leading to early disengagement from formal education.

This, they said, reinforces cycles of poverty by limiting future employment opportunities.Some practitioners observed that migration and displacement are contributing factors.

They said families relocating in search of work may lack access to social services, increasing the likelihood of children entering labour markets. In such contexts, children are often employed in low-paid, informal roles where their age makes them more vulnerable to exploitation.

Stakeholders also pointed to the role of supply chains in sustaining demand for cheap labour. They said small businesses and subcontractors may employ children to reduce costs, particularly in industries where profit margins are narrow.

Without adequate traceability, they added, such practices can remain hidden within broader production networks.Government officials have maintained that policy measures are in place to address the issue, including rehabilitation programmes and awareness campaigns.

However, observers said the scale of implementation varies significantly across regions, with some areas lacking the resources needed to deliver effective interventions.Non-governmental organisations reported that rescue and rehabilitation efforts face logistical and social challenges.

They said that even when children are withdrawn from labour, reintegration into education systems is not always straightforward. Families may continue to face financial hardship, increasing the risk of children returning to work.

Experts emphasised the importance of addressing root causes, including poverty, limited access to quality education and social protection gaps. They said that without comprehensive strategies targeting these underlying factors, enforcement alone is unlikely to eliminate child labour.

They further indicated that greater coordination between government agencies, civil society and private sector actors is required to strengthen monitoring and accountability. Improved data collection and reporting mechanisms were also identified as critical to understanding the scale and nature of the problem.

Practitioners stressed that child labour is evolving in response to economic and social changes. They said that as enforcement increases in formal sectors, the practice may shift into less regulated spaces, making it harder to detect.

This trend, they warned, requires adaptive policy responses and sustained attention from authorities.

Field reports suggest that while legal frameworks provide a foundation for addressing child labour, gaps in enforcement, economic pressures and structural inequalities continue to limit their effectiveness.

Kyiv (France24) – The Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have reversed three decades of progress in reducing poverty, according to the World Bank, which is warning that the global goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 is now out of reach.

In its latest report, the Washington-based lender estimates that 70 million more people were forced into extreme poverty in 2020, the largest increase since monitoring began in 1990.

Solange Mougin speaks to Mari Pangestu, Managing Director of Development Policy and Partnerships at the World Bank and a former Indonesian trade minister.

Washington (Reuters) – The United States on Wednesday said it will boost support for the Haitian police as they battle armed gangs and will speed up delivery of aid to a country suffering from crippling shortages of basic goods due to a gang blockade of a key fuel terminal.

The severity of poverty in Iran has reached such a level that there are many people with disabilities who have been forced to sell their wheelchairs to survive!

When Khomeini made his triumphant return to Iran in 1979, the population of the country was 36 million.

In the 42 years that have followed, Iran’s population has grown to more than 85 million. At that time, in 1979, due to incompetence and corruption of the monarchy, there were no reliable statistics on poverty in Iran, but according to a research article by Javad Salehi Esfahani, an Iranian economist at Virginia Tech University, titled “Revolution and Wealth Distribution in Iran” which had been published on the World Bank website: In 1977, two years before the revolution, 48% of Iranians were living in poor rural areas, and 28% of the city dwellers also lived below the poverty line. In other words, about one-third of Iranians lived below the poverty line.

Forty-some years after the revolution, according to Shahab Naderi, a member of the Economic Commission of the Iranian Parliament, 80% of Iran’s population lives below the poverty line.

In 1979, the Iranian per capita GDP was $10,000, while in 2019, the per capita GDP was less than $7,000.

But on Nov. 2, 2019, at the inauguration of a development project to mark the 40th anniversary of the revolution, Mohammad Ali Jafari, ex-commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared this: “Before the revolution, 46% of the population lived below the poverty line”. He adds: “in 2016, only about 10% of the people live below the poverty line”. He then concludes that “such a huge drop is the direct result of the Islamic revolution and a pride for the country”.

What it shows is that the regime in Tehran is a master at demagoguery and deception.

The statistics offered by Jafari could not be found on any reputable website. They were absolutely baseless lies.

According to research, in the first decade of 2000, many Iranian heads of families, despite having jobs, could not provide the minimum living needs for their families, and the problem of child malnutrition, associated with adult poverty, was one of the immediate effects of such a substandard lifestyle in Iran.

According to the ILNA news agency in a report dated Oct. 20, 2021, more than 95% of the Iranian labor community currently do not have job security and experience a life full of pressure and stress. The Iranian workers are at the bottom of the pyramid regarding their inadequate income and high cost of living.

According to Tasnim News Agency in a report dated Dec. 30, 2020: “…their food basket (expenses have) increased by about 200% in the period of 9 months before this date. Their housing costs have increased five times in a period of 2 years. With these conditions, the 14,494,000 officially insured workers, who number more than 49 million with their families and make up about 58 percent of the population, are just trying to survive, not live”.

The severity of poverty in Iran has reached such a level that there are many people with disabilities who have been forced to sell their wheelchairs to survive!

Another sign of poverty is the presence of too many beggars in cities, who have become an “increasing problem” for society due to their large numbers.

Another product of such a broken economy is the presence of working children in every city throughout Iran. The exact number of working children is not known, but it is estimated to be 3 million, who instead of going to school and studying are wandering in the streets of big cities, engaged in peddling or looking through garbage bins, collecting recyclable items so that they can provide food for their families.

According to Mohammad Reza Mahboobfar, a member of the Land Management Association of Iran, in 2017, about 40% of the urban population of Iran were living on the outskirts in substandard situations. After three years in 2020, along with inflation, skyrocketing prices in the housing sector, rent hikes, etc., the population living in the shantytowns has reached 45%.

If we calculate this 45% of 85 million people in Iran, it means more than 38 million Iranians have been forced to move and live in slums on the outskirts of cities and lack the necessary living facilities such as running water and electricity, sewage system, school, hospital and park and playground for children, etc.

However, with these circumstances, the Iranian regime has not stopped its nuclear and missile programs and the expansionist policies of meddling in other countries! According to Falahatpisheh, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, in the last decade, Iran has spent more than $30 billion just to support the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. To this figure, we should add the payout to its proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine, and various groups in Iraq, which amount to millions of dollars each month.

On the other hand, due to the institutionalized corruption in Iran’s governmental organizations and IRGC, and astronomical thefts and embezzlement have earned Iran number 1 rank in the number of millionaires in the Middle East. The children of these people, who are all affiliated with the regime officials, live in aristocracy in Iran, Canada, the United States, and European countries.

With such class divide and widespread poverty and discontent pervading more than 90% of society, it can be expected that Iran will soon witness a scene of unrest and uprisings comparable to those that we saw in November 2019. The difference is that this time Khamenei will not be able to suppress them easily, because the people have nothing to lose and they are determined to change the regime in Iran.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

Reports of daily suicides in Iran have almost become commonplace.  According to a recent report carried by the state-run ROKNA News Agency, from April 15 to 16, a total of 84 people committed suicide in Tehran alone.

These statistics show how fed-up Iranians are with their lives and Iran’s collapsing economy.

Of course, suicide statistics in Iran are not provided regularly and accurately. However, statistics from Iran’s Ministry of Health show that Iran is one of the countries that suffers the most from this problem.

According to these figures published by the Ministry in 2019, out of every 100,000 Iranians, 125 people commit suicide, a very high number compared to worldwide figures.

In a 2019 report, the World Health Organization said less than 15.4 per 100,000 people in Europe commit suicide. Even the suicide rate in India, which is suffering from extreme poverty is 16 per 100,000 people.

Reports of suicide attempts in Iranian media demonstrates that most people who attempted suicide were young people under 30 years old, and among them were children aged between 11 and 12. In 2018, the number of juvenile suicides in Iran accounted for 20% of the suicide rate.

According to the state-run Etemad daily, from March to November 2020, a total of 3,589 men and women died from suicide.

The most common methods of suicide in Iran, especially among young women, are hangings, jumping off buildings and pedestrian bridges, and self-immolation. In the past month alone, 13 young women and girls committed suicide in Kurdish provinces in western Iran.

One of the main causes of suicide among young people and adolescents is the absence of hope for the future, economic hardships, and social issues. Some of the reasons Iranians commit suicide are as follows:  

• Millions of young people have no hope of finding a job.
• They do not have minimum welfare and security in the face of economic hardship.
•  Being exposed to social violence due to the lack of freedom, repression and repressive laws against women and restrictions that double the already existing social and cultural pressures.
• Inequality and discrimination against ordinary Iranians by regime elites.

Widespread poverty and unemployment are another reason for the high suicide rates in Iran. This is the direct result of systematic multibillion-dollar financial corruption in the structures of government institutions, the low value of Iran’s national currency and the skyrocketing prices of basic commodities, as well as rising housing and rent prices. Many small and medium-sized industries and workshops have gone bankrupt which has led to large-scale layoffs and the inability of factories to pay the salaries of workers.

As a result, Iran’s middle class has virtually disappeared with nearly 80% of the population living below the line of poverty. Many items such as meat and fruit have long been removed from people’s diets.

These factors have significantly reduced public tolerance and suicide has become a method of protesting the status quo.  For example, last year, several children and teenagers committed suicide because their families were unable to provide tablets or smartphones for them for online classes.

Maryam Abbasinejad, the director of the Suicide Prevention Program at the Ministry of Health’s Mental Health Office said 100,000 suicide attempts were registered in 2018 in Iran. However, many experts say official suicide statistics are only the tip of the iceberg.

According to a report by social science researchers, from 2015 to 2019, Iran’s suicide rate has increased by 60% meaning.

But suicides are not the only way Iranians show they are fed up with the status quo. During the past years, Iranians have taken to the streets across the country to show their anger towards the regime they hold responsible for all their hardships.  

In the most recent protests in November 2019, the regime responded by gunning down 1,500 men women and children.

These protests indicate that the current situation will not hold up much longer and since conditions have gotten worse than before, more protests in the future are imminent; Protests that might get rid of the theocracy once and for all. 

Some bakers confiscate the customer’s national ID card until the debt is paid

Bakeries in Iran are selling bread in installments to impoverished Iranians, according to a report by a state-run website. According to the report by Tejarat News website bakers were keeping books to record loans handed out to their customers for bread.

Bread in installments in southern provinces

A baker in Qasr-e-Qand, in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan told the website he had also had a hard time making ends meet and could not continue to “loan” bread to his customers. Bakeries in Sistan and Baluchestan’s Zabol, Rudan in the southern province of Hormozgan, and Dashti in the southern province of Bushehr are also selling bread in installments. Some bakers confiscate the customer’s national ID card until the debt is paid, others just write the names of the customers and the loaned amount.

Subsidies are their only source of income

Rahim Parmouteh, another baker in Sistan and Baluchestan said there are many families here who rely on subsidies as their only source of income. These 8-9 member families get only a total of 45,500 tomans (less than $2) as subsidies per month.  

The baker said the families wait the whole month to pay their bread loans with their meager subsidies. “Why doesn’t the government create jobs, so families don’t have to wait for the inadequate subsidies?”

Sistan and Baluchestan province has been drought-stricken for years. The soil has become salty, and unsuitable for farming. Fishermen are only allowed to fish from the shore using small fishing nets, however large fishing trawlers have not left any fish for local fishermen.

Many locals used to work at the ports but due to the coronavirus pandemic, the ports have been emptied for months.

Absolute poverty

Sixty million Iranians live under the line of poverty due to the regime’s systematic lack of supervision over the economy, an Iranian economist said. Speaking to Tabnak, a website affiliated with the regime, Ibrahim Razaghi said “the most important threat to Iran was extreme poverty, widespread unemployment, the inability of many people to pay their rent, and that the rich were getting richer.”

According to state-run media, more than 19 million Iranians live in 3,000 slums and make up the 35% of Iran’s urban population.

Based on official figures published in October, half of Iran’s population live in absolute poverty. The report published by the Statistical Center of Iran also said Iranians were not able to buy basic groceries. Average Iranians eat 52% less red meat, while those with lower incomes eat 65% less red meat compared to last year, the report said. Iranians are also eating 34% less rice, the country’s staple food.  

The current poverty line in Iran is 10 million tomans (around $385), while the absolute poverty line is 6.8 million tomans (around $262), which puts 50% of the Iranian population under the line of “absolute poverty”.

Protests are inevitable 

A state economic analyst in Iran stated that more protests were imminent if fundamental economic change was not made. Hossein Raghfar said in an interview with the state-run news Sharq Daily, said medicine imported into Iran to treat the ill was being sold in shops for more than ten times the price. “This disturbs the people’s mental, psychological, physical and economic security,”

New official figures show that Iranian families are spending 46% more on the same products and services compared to last year. According to the state-run Borna News Agency, a report published by the Statistical Center of Iran on November 21 shows the country’s year on year inflation has reached 4.46%. This means urban families spent 45% more while rural families spent 50% more on products and services compared to last year.

Raghfar implied that the Organization in Support of Consumers was corrupt.

“What we see today is an organization called the Organization in Support of Consumers, but it is a governmental body that only safeguards the interests of the importers, not that of the people,”

 “If we do not answer to the demands of the day, of the society and the people, we should expect tougher, costlier consequences and a more ambiguous future… This knowledge may have been acquired in the country’s decision-making circles, but widespread corruption is the main obstacle to reform,” he added.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

While talking to any simple worker and wage earner, in the very first sentence of his conversation he tells you very simply that “I can no longer buy meat and chicken!”

The catastrophic state of the Iranian economy has directly affected the livelihood of the Iranian people, and now one of the biggest problems they face is malnutrition due to food shortages, skyrocketing prices, and poor quality of goods.

According to the World Health Organization, malnutrition is the leading cause of death in the world.

Malnutrition causes diseases and disorders to the body’s immune and digestive systems.

The Research Center of the Iranian Parliament, based on data from the Statistics Center of Iran, has reported a sharp decline in the consumption of basic goods by Iranians.

The report shows the price of essential goods have risen sharply in the past two years. The price of goods such as chicken meat was up more than 100 percent. At the same time, the average consumption of essential goods has decreased significantly in recent years.

In the third decile, including the lowest-income middle class and skilled workers, red meat consumption fell by 36% and rice consumption by 18%. Consumption of red meat decreased by more than 30% in 2019 compared to 2016, consumption of veal by 20% and lamb by 29%.

Considering more than 70% of Iranian workers are minimum wage earners and are considered below middle class, this drop in consumption is relatively higher among them.

However, this year’s inflation data has not been taken into account in the calculations of the Parliamentary Research Center. If it were to be, the reduction of consumption of essential goods would undoubtedly be much higher than this.

Workers within a period of one year and six months were faced with a 500% increase in rent rates and are no longer able to provide adequate housing in cities. Moreover, with an income of less than 100,000 tomans a day (approximately $5) people cannot even afford to put food on their tables.

According to the official report of the Statistics Center of Iran, the inflation rate in October has increased by 7% compared to September. This means that all goods and services have become 7% more expensive. According to the same official report, the inflation rate hit a record high in October 2020 and reached 41.4%. The low-income deciles feel the inflationary pressure on food and beverage groups of goods more than high-income deciles. The role of food commodities in inflation for low income deciles is more prominent.

Inflation by decile – Source: Statistics Center of Iran

The tables of Statistics Center and the Central Bank of Iran show the downward trend of 10-year consumption in Iran’s households, and if we put this downward trend next to the upward trend of household numbers, the average per capita consumption is obtained and will show how far it has fallen in recent years!

While talking to any simple worker and wage earner, in the very first sentence of his conversation he tells you very simply that “I can no longer buy meat and chicken!”

A municipal worker in Marivan says he has not bought red meat for months. He buys two dozen eggs and takes them home, and they eat “soy” (Tofu) instead of meat.

He says, “We, the municipal workers, are not only the minimum wage earners, but we do not receive the same insufficient wages on time. The municipality did not pay us for months. In this situation, how can we buy meat at above 100,000 Tomans (approximately $ 5) per Kilogram!? We don’t even buy chicken.”

A female head of household said she has not been able to buy meat and poultry for months, “We buy chicken feet and make soup, or we take a calf bone and boil it into the soup. Anyway, my children need protein. What else can I do!?”

One of the producers of raw materials for sausage and cold cuts said that people are turning to cheap and inexpensive meat products. According to this producer, the consumption of sausages has increased by 50% since the increase in the price of meat and poultry.

The Parliamentary Research Center has stated the situation as follows, “The current living conditions have degraded the lives of the vast majority of Iranian workers to the level of survival. The high price of food, which has accelerated in recent months, has made the Iranian household’s food basket smaller and low-value food has replaced proteins. The high cost of fruit during the outbreak of coronavirus deprives people of more vitamins and lowers their immune system.

“The economic situation worsened and the government continued to have no money to pay foreign currency at government rate for essential goods such as meat, grains, etc., and the import of animal feed at the government foreign currency rate continued to be difficult. These factors led to a surge in food and dairy prices.

“These increases are while the wage committee of the Supreme Labor Council estimated the cost of living in August of this year at 6.249 million tomans without taking into account the cost of housing. That means 1.309 million tomans more than the figure announced in March of last year”.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

Huseyin Goksoy, a tailor who was so stressed about going hungry during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic that he was briefly bedridden with a hernia, is increasingly worried about his future as Turkey strains to curb poverty.

He is not alone.

Though a two-month lockdown ended in June, about four million Turks still rely on state aid to get by, while even more informal workers missed out on most of the financial support.

Polls and academic research paint a grim picture ahead of the day when President Tayyip Erdogan’s government is expected to lift a temporary ban on layoffs, possibly as soon as November.

Goksoy, 48, makes face masks to help cover losses from earlier this year when he could not get a subsidized small-business loan because there was no guarantor in his conservative neighborhood in central Istanbul.

“People don’t get dressed up when they don’t work, so I only repaired tears and it was 5-10 liras ($1) a day – if that,” he said. “I still can’t send money to my kids when they want it. If I do a bad job, I’d go hungry.”

Data and polls show that fear and disillusionment like this are unprecedented across the labor market. Those hardest hit are the same Turks who benefited from years of Erdogan’s welfare policies that helped to sharply reduce income inequalities.

One study by Turkish economists Ayse Aylin Bayar, Oner Guncavdi and Haluk Levent predicts the number of impoverished Turks could double this year to nearly 20 million, and set back by two decades progress in narrowing inequality.

That would effectively wipe out the successes of Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and could test his staunchest voter base at the next general election set for 2023.

Goksoy – whose shop is near the president’s childhood home – said he still supported AKP though he would change his mind if he thought the party was no longer honest.

Unsustainable

Erdogan said on Monday the economy would emerge stronger from the pandemic even though its effects linger, adding that the government’s 100 billion lira ($13 billion) aid program helped lower-income households.

Representatives of the presidency and the finance ministry, which administers the aid, did not immediately respond to questions about rising poverty.

The aid scheme partially covers wages of many registered workers and funded some 2 million needy households. Big cities run by the main opposition party chipped in other funds and food supplies.

But Turkey’s mix of low-skilled labor in which a third of workers informally earn cash daily, a private sector dominated by small businesses and public finances already strained from a 2018-2019 recession leaves the country uniquely vulnerable.

Reserves at the central bank, which backstopped much of the pandemic response, have fallen sharply and accelerated a plunge in the Turkish lira to all-time lows. That in turn raises prices for basic imported goods.

By law, Erdogan can extend the ban on layoffs beyond November to mid-2021 to shield workers, but at a fiscal cost.

“These are not sustainable policies,” said Guncavdi, an economist at Istanbul Technical University who co-authored the study predicting a jump in poverty.

“When they are removed, there is potential for upheaval with mass layoffs, a spike in destitution, family structures being tested and potential demonizing of minorities and refugees.”

Turkey’s 3.6 million Syrian refugees faced backlash in past downturns, and those left unemployed this year had little safety net.

Retired florist Kemal Erdogan, 76, said this week he supports AKP but added that with the poor now getting poorer it was clear Turkey welcomed too many foreigners who are “living better lives than you and I”.Slideshow (2 Images)

Lockdown Anxities

An unprecedented collapse in employment endured after the lockdown was lifted in June and July, driven by workers not formally on payrolls, government data showed on Thursday.

A record 1.4 million were too discouraged to search for work, up nearly threefold from a year ago. Of those who had jobs last month, nearly half were “very afraid” of losing them by winter, a poll by Istanbul Economics Research found.

Can Selcuki, general manager of the consultancy, said that likely reflects workers’ suspicion that they will be laid off “the minute” the layoff ban is lifted. He added that support for Erdogan’s ruling alliance dipped to 44% in a poll this month, from 46% in August after a summer bounce.

Turkey, like several other countries, banned layoffs in April when it also closed most businesses, shut borders and intercity travel and adopted partial stay-at-home orders.

Large gatherings were curbed, leaving Mehmet Coskun, a wedding drummer without social security, only a third of his usual gigs. “I don’t know what to do when my loan payments come along,” he said. “Perhaps I can sell water or clean buildings.”

Such lost jobs in the service, tourism and construction sectors are hurting Turkey’s poorest households the most, according to the World Bank. The bank, however, predicts that the poverty rate will rise less than forecast in the Turkish study, to about 12% from 10%, contained in part by the state aid.

A recent rise in coronavirus cases to early May levels only raises anxieties.

Meryem Yildirim, who opened a women’s clothing shop in Istanbul two months ago, said a return to lockdown was her worst nightmare.

“All small businesses think this way now,” said the mother of two, adding she took out a loan to pay rent and to cover a second loan on the shop.

(For a graphic on discouraged workers, click here)

(For a graphic on employment and workforce participation, click here)

($1 = 7.4894 liras)