The ongoing conflict over water distribution is likely to intensify as the country is facing a severe water crisis.

The conflict over water distribution in Pakistan has resurfaced. Sindh and Balochistan have registered a strong protest against the Indus River System Authority(IRSA)’s decision to reduce their water share by diverting it to Punjab. IRSA is Pakistan’s main body responsible for “the regulation and distribution of surface waters amongst the provinces according to the allocations and policies spelt out in the Water Accord” 1991.

Sindh’s ongoing water shortage stems from IRSA’s actions, which, by allocating more water to Punjab despite overall scarcity, intensify perceptions of unfairness and fuel the conflict over water distribution. This pattern has sharpened the provincial dispute, positioning Punjab as a consistent beneficiary at Sindh’s expense. 

This is not the first time that the issue of water distribution has been contested between Punjab and Sindh. The country has a long history in which smaller provinces complained against Punjab over the unfair distribution of resources, including water.

In a major development, after years of delay, the Government of Pakistan issued the first National Water Policy (NWP) in 2018. Claimed to be have formed after gaining the consensus of the chief ministers of all four provinces, the NWP, according to the Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Sartaj Aziz, “covered all water-related issues, including water uses and allocation of priorities, integrated planning for development and use of water resources, environmental integrity of the basin, impact of climate change, trans-boundary water sharing, irrigated and rain-fed agriculture.” However, the committee subsequently formed to oversee its implementation could not reconcile the interests of Punjab and Sindh, mainly. 

Sindh is of the view that the policy was formed under coercion, as the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), the party with a strong presence in Punjab, was leading the federal government, forcing the decision upon smaller provinces. Sartaj Aziz, the deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, was considered to be close to Nawaz Sharif. So, the reservations of Sindh and Balochistan may not be entirely unfounded. 

In 2021, Sindh raised the issue and demanded a new water-sharing arrangement. The conflict came into the limelight in January 2025 when Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto and the PML-N-led government in Punjab, led by Nawaz Sharif’s daughter Maryam Nawaz, issued strong statements against each other over a project in Punjab—the Cholistan canal project. 

In February 2025, Chief Minister of Punjab Maryam Nawaz and Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir inaugurated an ambitious project in Cholistan to irrigate barren land under the Green Pakistan Initiative. The project would draw new canals from the Indus River, impacting the lower riparian Sindh Province. 

The decision expectedly led to a reaction from Sindh and protests from the Sindhis. They alleged that allocations were already extensively in Punjab’s favour, and any new such project would cripple Sindh’s irrigation system. Bilawal Bhutto even threatened that if the canal project was not shelved, his party would leave the alliance government in the centre. Unmoved by such threats, Maryam Nawaz said in September 2025 that “If Punjab wants to construct canals for its water, why are you bothered? It is Punjab’s water. It belongs to the people, farmers and fields of Punjab.” To make such a statement would not have been possible without the support of the Army who seen siding with Punjab.

The Cholistan canal project’s inauguration illustrates how Punjab’s dominance in Pakistan’s power structure influences resource allocation. High-profile involvement of the Army leadership in the project reinforces the perception that Punjab’s interests prevail over those of the smaller provinces, exemplifying the central argument that resource disputes are shaped by entrenched political and institutional imbalances.

Second, the project was launched despite the fact that Sindh had strongly protested against it; thus, it showed that Punjab pays the least attention to the concerns of smaller provinces. In the past as well, Sindh and Balochistan have raised the larger question about the water distribution in the country, which they think is not fair and needs renegotiation, but have not received any response from the federation. 

The latest controversy underscores the same attitude of the Punjab Province towards the smaller and weaker provinces of the country. Instead of being mindful of the requirements and demands of Sindh and Balochistan, Punjab’s interests remain preferable for the country’s rulers. 

Former President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, had said that “Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes—one for peace and one for science.” Kennedy had said these prescient words over sixty years ago. Still, Pakistan has been unable to address one of its core issues—the water scarcity and the distribution of its water resources among the provinces equally. 

For over 70 years of its formation, Pakistan’s colonial hangover continues. Despite all these challenges, the colonial structure has been deployed by the existing military-bureaucratic oligarchy, as the noted political scientist of Pakistan, Hamza Alavi, called it, to favour the powerful province, i.e., Punjab, over other weak provinces of the country. 

Resultantly, in the total share of the country’s water resources, equal distribution is hampered by the existing political system that remains overwhelmingly dominated by the Punjabis. For example, Field Marshall Asim Munir is the fourth successive Punjabi to lead the country’s powerful military, which remains dominated by the Punjabis. Of the last seven prime ministers since 2008, all but Imran Khan have been Punjabis. 

Implications of such a political system in which the largest province has been a dominant and driving force have often led to conflicts, for example, on the distribution of resources. Balochistan’s main complaint has been the exploitation of its resources by the Punjab Province at the cost of the local population: they call it Punjabi colonisation of Balochistan. And Sindh has often raised its concerns about the Punjab’s overuse of water that is meant for its use.

The ongoing conflict over water distribution is likely to intensify as the country is facing a severe water crisis. If Punjab continues its recklessness and prefers its interests over the weaker provinces, local resistance in Sindh and Balochistan will strengthen, forcing the provincial governments to take a stand against the federal government. That can lead to confrontational politics and even the fall of the government, if the PPP withdraws its support, as Bilawal had threatened. 

Overall, the situation remains grimmer than it seems. The military establishment might have forced the PPP to be part of the government, but if the local basic requirements, like water, are not delivered by the PPP-led government in Sindh, it cannot retain the support of the Sindhis, the third largest ethnic group of Pakistan- after Punjabis and Pashtuns. If their resistance revives against the Punjabi domination, the subsequent strengthening of the Sindhudesh movement can expose yet another fault line of Pakistan.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.