Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told reporters in Singapore that while crude prices had fallen below $100 per barrel following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, jet fuel costs were likely to remain elevated due to constraints on refining output.

“If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” Walsh said, adding that the region is critical to global supply of refined products beyond aviation fuel.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil trade, has been heavily disrupted during the recent conflict, squeezing fuel availability and driving up costs across the aviation sector.

Airlines in Asia have responded by cutting flights, carrying additional fuel from origin airports and adding refueling stops, measures that have increased operational costs for carriers already dealing with a sharp rise in jet fuel prices.

The impact has been most acute in import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan, where supply constraints have tightened further after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped shipments at previous levels.

Walsh said a resumption of crude flows could encourage exporters such as China and South Korea to restart shipments of refined products, easing pressure on the market over time.

However, he noted that higher refinery margins, known as crack spreads, would be needed to incentivize increased jet fuel production.

“There is capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it’ll take a little bit of time,” Walsh said.

The statement comes at a time when global oil flows are being recalibrated amid sanctions, tariffs, and shifting geopolitical alliances affecting major producers and consumers alike.

Reliance, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, said it is awaiting clarity on whether Venezuelan oil can be legally sold to buyers outside the United States before making any commercial decision.

Any potential purchase, the company emphasized, would be conducted strictly within compliance frameworks governing international trade and sanctions.

Industry sources say India’s state-run refiners are also closely watching developments, as Venezuelan crude could offer an alternative source of supply if restrictions ease.

For India, one of the world’s largest energy importers, access to additional crude streams is critical to managing costs and ensuring long-term energy security.

Reliance halted purchases of Venezuelan oil in 2025 after trade restrictions and punitive tariffs made such imports commercially and politically difficult.

The company’s refineries in Gujarat, however, are technically well suited to process heavier crude grades like Venezuela’s Merey, giving it flexibility if discounted barrels return to the market.

Recent diplomatic developments between Caracas and Washington have reopened discussions around limited oil exports, sparking renewed interest among global refiners.

Analysts note that even modest Venezuelan exports could influence pricing dynamics, particularly for complex refineries designed to handle heavy and sour crudes.

Energy market specialists suggest Venezuelan oil could re-emerge at attractive discounts, improving refining margins for buyers able to process it efficiently.

Such barrels could enhance feedstock flexibility for refiners facing rising costs and narrowing profit margins in other crude streams.

For India, Venezuelan oil also represents a politically acceptable diversification option at a time when Russian crude imports are under intense international scrutiny.

New Delhi has faced sustained pressure from Western governments to reduce reliance on Russian energy following the Ukraine conflict.

While Russian oil has helped India secure discounted supplies, growing compliance risks and tariff threats have prompted some refiners to reassess sourcing strategies.

Reliance’s recent reduction in Russian crude intake reflects a broader trend of cautious recalibration rather than abrupt disengagement.

Analysts say diversification is increasingly becoming a strategic necessity rather than a commercial choice for Indian refiners.
Balancing affordability, compliance, and geopolitical exposure has emerged as a central challenge for the country’s energy planners.

Venezuelan crude, if reintroduced into global markets, could partially offset reductions in Russian supply without triggering the same level of diplomatic backlash.

However, volumes are expected to remain limited, meaning such imports would supplement rather than replace existing supply arrangements.

India’s refining sector has historically demonstrated adaptability, adjusting procurement patterns in response to sanctions, conflicts, and shifting trade rules.

Reliance’s conditional openness underscores how major players are keeping options open amid an uncertain global energy environment.

As international negotiations continue, clarity on export permissions will determine whether Venezuelan oil once again finds its way into Indian refineries.

The outcome could influence not only India’s import mix but also broader discussions on energy security, sanctions compliance, and global oil market stability.

Despite softer oil prices, energy giants Shell and TotalEnergies reported strong, stable results that reflect disciplined strategy, investor confidence, and growing opportunities in natural gas and refining — reinforcing their leadership in the global energy transition.

Shell and TotalEnergies, two of the world’s leading energy companies, showcased steady performance in their latest quarterly results, demonstrating resilience and strategic adaptability amid fluctuating oil prices.

While both firms reported modest declines in profit, they continued to deliver solid shareholder returns, strengthened their balance sheets, and reaffirmed their commitment to long-term growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and downstream operations.

Shell reported adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion for the quarter ending September 30, surpassing analyst expectations of $5.09 billion.

The company’s strong showing was supported by robust results from its gas and upstream businesses, which performed better than anticipated despite weaker commodity prices.

This underscores Shell’s ability to leverage its diversified portfolio and trading expertise to sustain profitability even in challenging market conditions.

The energy major also maintained its $3.5 billion share buyback program for the quarter, reflecting continued confidence in its financial stability. Over the past four years, Shell has repurchased more than a quarter of its outstanding shares, enhancing value for investors.

Combined with dividends of $2.1 billion, Shell’s shareholder returns over the last four quarters represent nearly half of its operating cash flow, in line with its long-term payout targets.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan emphasized the company’s commitment to balancing profitability with energy transition goals. He noted that while short-term oil supply dynamics remain uncertain, the company is well-positioned for the future through its expanding LNG portfolio.

Shell continues to bet on rising global demand for liquefied natural gas, especially as countries accelerate their shift toward cleaner energy sources.

Shell’s integrated gas unit — the world’s largest LNG trading business — once again proved to be a key profit driver. The segment benefited from favorable trading conditions and resilient demand across Asia and Europe.

Looking ahead, Shell expects the LNG market to stabilize next year, with potential imbalances depending on the timing of new global projects.

The company’s cash flow from operations stood at $12.2 billion, down from $14.7 billion a year earlier, but still indicative of strong underlying performance.

Shell’s gearing, or debt-to-equity ratio, dipped slightly from the previous quarter and remains within comfortable levels. The company’s focus on disciplined capital spending and operational efficiency continues to strengthen its financial foundation.

Meanwhile, French energy major TotalEnergies also delivered a stable performance, with adjusted net income of $4.0 billion for the quarter, slightly lower than last year’s $4.1 billion.

The results aligned with market expectations and reflected strong upstream production, higher refining margins, and disciplined cost control.

TotalEnergies’ downstream operations stood out with an impressive 76% jump in profits, boosted by surging European refining margins.

The increase was driven by the European Union’s ban on fuel imports derived from Russian crude oil, which reshaped the continent’s energy supply landscape.

CEO Patrick Pouyanné noted that refining margins are expected to remain strong, projecting an average near $100 per ton in the next quarter.

Despite the external headwinds, TotalEnergies remains focused on financial discipline. The company will scale back its share buybacks slightly in the coming quarter to maintain balance sheet strength and manage debt responsibly.

Its gearing ratio improved quarter-on-quarter to 17.3%, reflecting prudent financial management.

Both Shell and TotalEnergies are navigating a complex energy landscape marked by evolving demand patterns, climate commitments, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Yet, both companies continue to balance short-term performance with long-term transformation. Shell’s emphasis on LNG expansion and TotalEnergies’ success in refining and low-carbon initiatives signal strategic foresight as the global energy system evolves.

Brent crude prices averaged around $68 per barrel during the quarter, lower than last year’s $78 average, while European gas prices also eased.

Despite this softer pricing environment, both companies’ results highlight their ability to sustain profitability through diversification, trading strength, and capital efficiency.

As the energy industry undergoes rapid change, Shell and TotalEnergies are proving that adaptability and forward-thinking strategies can yield stability even in uncertain times.

By investing in LNG, renewables, and refining modernization, they are positioning themselves not just for immediate recovery but for leadership in a lower-carbon future.

Investors remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s outlook. Both firms’ continued focus on shareholder returns, disciplined investment, and innovation in cleaner technologies demonstrate how traditional energy leaders are redefining their roles in the global energy transition.

In a year marked by volatility, Shell and TotalEnergies have shown that strategic resilience, operational excellence, and a clear focus on long-term growth remain the cornerstones of enduring success in the evolving energy landscape.