Trading volumes of the Iranian currency have reached as much as $6 million a day in Pakistan’s open market, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan, with demand accelerating after reports of renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The rally has been fueled in part by Islamabad’s diplomatic outreach, with Asim Munir visiting Iran and Shehbaz Sharif undertaking a regional tour following high-level U.S.-Iran talks hosted in the Pakistani capital. Market participants say these developments have strengthened expectations of a potential breakthrough.

The Iranian riyal has risen by around 50% in Pakistan’s informal market since late February, climbing from about Rs10,000 to Rs15,000 per 10 million riyals after talks began in Islamabad on April 11, ECAP data shows.Small investors are increasingly participating in the trend.

Muhammad Akbar, a chauffeur in Karachi, said he had invested part of his monthly income into the currency, hoping to profit if negotiations succeed. “I have become a millionaire,” he said, referring to the large nominal value of riyals he now holds.Others have built significantly larger positions.

Retail investor Azam Khan said he had accumulated hundreds of millions of riyals as the currency gained traction among traders seeking quick returns.Market participants say the surge reflects heightened expectations rather than underlying economic strength.

Zafar Sultan Paracha said demand had surged across investor categories, though he cautioned that trading volumes may be even higher due to undocumented transactions.“People’s expectations are very high,” Paracha said, urging investors to base decisions on fundamentals rather than speculation.Economists warn the rally bears hallmarks of behavioral bias rather than structural recovery.

Muhammad Waqas Ghani described the trend as a “gambler’s fallacy,” where investors assume a rebound is likely simply because the currency has weakened in the past.He said Iran continues to face deep economic challenges, including liquidity shortages and stress in its banking system, which limit the scope for sustained appreciation.

Without broader reforms or durable sanctions relief, gains are likely to remain localized to Pakistan’s market rather than reflecting a global revaluation.Some investors remain cautious. Isra Ghous Rasool, a business student and stock market participant, said volatility linked to geopolitical developments made the currency too risky. “There’s simply too much volatility for me to comfortably manage,” she said.

Pakistan has also taken steps to facilitate trade through Iran, temporarily easing export rules for shipments of goods to Central Asia via Iranian territory, a move analysts say may have contributed modestly to the currency’s local demand.

Still, analysts say the current surge is driven primarily by speculation tied to geopolitical expectations rather than economic fundamentals, leaving investors exposed to sharp reversals if diplomatic progress stalls.