Polling in five states and territories concluded over April and May, and early attention has focused on West Bengal, where the BJP mounted an intensive campaign to unseat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of the All India Trinamool Congress, which has governed the state since 2011.

Exit polls released last week suggested a narrow edge for the BJP over the TMC, though such projections have historically proven unreliable in India. Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said the outcome in West Bengal could have wider national implications, describing the contest as one that could “tilt the balance of power.”

The campaign was marked by controversy over the removal of millions of names from electoral rolls, a move authorities described as targeting ineligible voters but which critics argued disproportionately affected marginalized and minority communities.

Banerjee expressed confidence ahead of the count, dismissing the BJP’s chances and urging supporters to remain patient. In contrast, West Bengal BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya said the election reflected public demand for change and predicted a defeat for the ruling party.

Elsewhere, in Tamil Nadu, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led by Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is widely expected to retain power. In Assam, the BJP is projected to maintain control, while in Puducherry, the party remains part of the governing coalition.In Kerala, exit polls indicate a closely contested race, with the Congress-led alliance seen as having an advantage over the incumbent Communist government.

The results are being closely watched as a gauge of Modi’s political standing amid ongoing economic and foreign policy challenges, including high unemployment and negotiations over a trade agreement with the United States.

Voting took place throughout April in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and the union territory of Puducherry, with attention centered on whether the BJP could expand its footprint in major opposition-held regions ahead of future national political contests.

Exit polls, while often used as early indicators in India, have a mixed record and final outcomes can differ significantly from projections.The most closely watched contest is in West Bengal, where the BJP mounted an aggressive campaign to unseat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), which has governed the state since 2011.

Several exit polls suggested the BJP held a narrow advantage over the TMC, raising the possibility that Modi’s party could take power in the state of more than 100 million people for the first time.Banerjee’s TMC won 213 of the 294 seats in the 2021 assembly election, and the state has a history of electoral violence and intense political rivalry.

This year’s campaign was also marked by controversy over a Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls, a process authorities said was intended to remove ineligible voters, but which critics argued disproportionately affected marginalized and minority communities.

Political activist Yogendra Yadav said there was “no way” the TMC would lose in what he described as a fair election, alleging that the BJP could only prevail through manipulation of voter lists or counting irregularities.The BJP has denied opposition allegations of electoral malpractice.

In Assam and Puducherry, the BJP-led alliance was widely projected to retain power, reinforcing the party’s hold in regions where it already governs.In Tamil Nadu, one of India’s largest industrial states, exit polls indicated the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led by Chief Minister M. K. Stalin was likely to remain in office.

The polls also suggested actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay, leading the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam party, could emerge as a significant new challenger to the state’s established political parties.In Kerala, India’s only communist-ruled state, projections indicated a closely fought contest, with a Congress-led alliance expected to challenge the ruling Left Democratic Front.

Strong results for the BJP in the state elections would strengthen Modi’s political position as his government navigates economic pressures including high unemployment and negotiations over a pending trade deal with the United States.