Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung that recovery timelines would vary across countries, with some producers facing longer setbacks than others. He said overall output in the region was expected to return to pre-war levels in roughly two years, citing uneven infrastructure damage and differing production capacities.

He cautioned that markets may be underestimating the consequences of continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas shipments. While cargoes dispatched before the outbreak of hostilities have largely reached their destinations, he said the absence of new shipments in March was beginning to create supply gaps, particularly for Asian markets.

“No new tankers were loaded in March,” Birol said, adding that if the strait remains closed, the shortfall could translate into sustained upward pressure on global energy prices.The disruption comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which have curtailed production and complicated export logistics.

Energy analysts have pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical vulnerability, handling a significant share of global seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas flows.Birol said the IEA remained prepared to intervene through coordinated releases of emergency oil reserves, following a similar move earlier in March aimed at stabilizing markets.

He added that while such action was not yet imminent, it remained under active consideration should supply conditions deteriorate further.

Jorgensen said the bloc is assessing “all possibilities” as it braces for sustained disruption, warning that energy prices are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. “This will be a long crisis energy prices will be higher for a very long time,” he said in the interview.

He added that for certain critical energy products, market conditions could deteriorate further in the coming weeks, underscoring concerns about supply constraints and volatility linked to the conflict.

The European Union has previously relied on coordinated measures such as strategic stock releases and demand reduction during periods of supply stress. Officials are now evaluating whether similar or more stringent interventions may be required if the crisis deepens.

The developments come as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global energy flows, raising risks for import-dependent economies and adding pressure to inflation across the region.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, Birol said the agency would assess market conditions before deciding on further action, after member countries agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease surging crude prices.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said, adding there was no fixed price threshold that would automatically trigger another coordinated release. He cautioned that stock drawdowns could help stabilise markets but would not resolve underlying supply constraints.

Birol said the Asia-Pacific region was at the forefront of the crisis due to its reliance on energy and critical commodities shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor affected by the conflict.

He described the current situation in the Middle East as “very severe,” saying its impact exceeded that of the 1970s oil shocks and the gas market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war combined.

According to Birol, the conflict has removed around 11 million barrels per day from global oil supply, intensifying pressure on economies dependent on imports.“The single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

Birol said stock releases represented only one element of the agency’s response, pointing to demand-side measures such as reduced speed limits and increased remote working to curb fuel consumption.

He noted similar steps had helped lower energy use in Europe in 2022, though implementation would depend on national policy decisions.

“The depth of the problem was not well appreciated by decision makers around the world,” Birol said, explaining his decision to speak publicly weeks into the conflict.

During his visit, Birol met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and reviewed the country’s fuel preparedness. While noting that Australia’s overall liquid fuel reserves remain below IEA requirements, he said recent efforts had improved resilience.

He described Australia’s diesel reserves, currently at around 30 days, as “a solid number” in the current environment.

Birol is scheduled to travel to Japan later this week ahead of a Group of Seven meeting, where energy security and coordinated responses to the supply shock are expected to be discussed.

Speaking on a Fuji TV programme, Motegi said minesweeping could be an option if naval mines obstruct shipping lanes following a “complete ceasefire,” stressing that any such step would depend on conditions stabilising in the waterway, a conduit for roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.

Japan’s potential involvement would be constrained by its postwar pacifist constitution, which restricts military activity abroad. However, security legislation enacted in 2015 allows overseas deployment of the Self-Defense Forces if a crisis threatens Japan’s survival and no alternative measures are available.

Motegi said Tokyo had no immediate plans to pursue arrangements to secure passage specifically for Japanese vessels, but emphasised the importance of restoring safe navigation through the strait. Japan relies on the route for around 90% of its oil imports, leaving it highly exposed to disruptions.

The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict has contributed to a surge in global oil prices, prompting Japan and other countries to release crude from strategic reserves.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Japan’s Kyodo news agency he had discussed with Motegi the possibility of allowing Japan-linked vessels to transit the strait.U.S. President Donald Trump has urged allies, including Japan, to increase their role in securing the waterway, though Tokyo has so far signalled limits based on its legal framework.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she had briefed Trump on the scope of support Japan could provide under domestic law.

Separately, Motegi said one of two Japanese nationals detained in Iran had been released on Wednesday and would return to Japan. He said the release followed repeated diplomatic representations to Tehran, while confirming that a second Japanese citizen remains in custody.