Farmers in India’s northern grain belt are increasingly worried that a distant conflict in the Gulf could disrupt fertiliser supplies and threaten crop yields, as tensions linked to the closure of a key maritime route reverberate through global commodity markets.

In Punjab, a state central to India’s wheat and rice production, growers say uncertainty over input availability has begun to overshadow routine agricultural planning. Gurvinder Singh, a 52-year-old farmer, said concerns over fertiliser access have intensified in recent weeks as global supply chains face strain.

“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

”Singh’s remarks reflect broader anxieties among farmers who rely heavily on imported fertiliser components, many of which are linked to energy markets and international shipping routes. India is one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, and any disruption in supply can have immediate implications for crop productivity.

The concerns follow Iran’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments, in response to strikes by the United States and Israel. The disruption has triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects across industries dependent on fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based variants, are closely tied to natural gas prices, making them vulnerable to energy supply shocks. Analysts say any sustained increase in fuel costs or shipping disruptions could raise input prices or delay deliveries, affecting farmers during key planting cycles.

In Punjab, often referred to as India’s breadbasket, agriculture remains the primary source of income for millions. Farmers typically follow a rotation of wheat and rice crops, with fertiliser use playing a crucial role in maintaining yields. Any reduction in application due to shortages or high costs could directly impact output.

“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” Singh said, underscoring the sense of vulnerability among rural communities despite their geographic distance from the conflict.

The potential for supply disruptions comes at a time when many farmers are already facing margin pressures from fluctuating crop prices and rising input costs. Industry observers note that even short-term shortages can have lasting consequences, particularly if they coincide with critical stages of crop development.

India imports a significant portion of its fertiliser requirements, including key raw materials such as potash and phosphates. Supply chains for these inputs are globally integrated, often passing through major shipping routes in the Middle East. Any bottleneck in transit can lead to delays and price spikes in domestic markets.

Government officials have in the past taken steps to secure fertiliser supplies through strategic reserves and international agreements. However, traders say prolonged disruption in maritime logistics could test these buffers, especially if global competition for limited supplies intensifies.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures. Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across sectors, feeding into food prices and complicating economic management.

For farmers like Singh, the uncertainty is immediate and personal. With planting decisions already underway, the availability and affordability of fertilisers will be a key determinant of the upcoming harvest.

As global markets react to developments in the Gulf, the impact is being felt far beyond the region, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern supply chains.

For India’s agricultural heartland, the stakes are tied not only to international diplomacy but also to the livelihoods of millions who depend on stable inputs to sustain production.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Iranian negotiators were “begging for a deal,” dismissing Tehran’s public stance as inaccurate. Araghchi, speaking on state television, said there had been no direct dialogue with Washington, adding that exchanges via intermediaries did not constitute negotiations.

He said Iran was conveying its positions and warnings through friendly countries.The divergence in messaging comes as military operations continue. U.S. and Israeli forces have conducted extensive strikes on Iranian targets since late February, while Iran has launched retaliatory attacks on Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf states.

A U.S. Central Command briefing said more than 10,000 targets had been struck, with significant degradation of Iran’s naval, missile, and drone capabilities.

The conflict has disrupted global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for oil and liquefied natural gas. Its effective closure has triggered what officials describe as a severe energy shock, driving up fuel prices and straining supply chains across industries from aviation to agriculture.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of ADNOC, described restrictions on Hormuz as “economic terrorism,” warning of global consequences. Governments are considering intervention measures similar to those deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic, as businesses face rising costs and weakening demand.

The World Food Programme has warned that prolonged disruption could push tens of millions into acute hunger, with farmers and fisheries already facing fuel shortages.

A 15-point U.S. proposal, conveyed to Iran through Pakistan, includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, curbing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and halting support for regional allies, according to Israeli sources familiar with the plan.

The White House has not publicly detailed the proposal.Israeli officials expressed skepticism that Tehran would accept the terms and voiced concern that U.S. negotiators could offer concessions.

Iran, according to regional sources, has insisted that Lebanon be included in any ceasefire framework involving Washington and Israel.

Financial markets reflected fading optimism over a near-term resolution. Global equities weakened on Thursday while oil prices resumed their upward trajectory. Analysts cited diminishing expectations of a ceasefire as a key driver of volatility.

The Pentagon is preparing to deploy additional airborne troops to the Gulf, supplementing Marine units already en route, according to sources. The buildup is intended to expand military options as the conflict risks widening.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the situation could escalate further, urging a shift from military confrontation to diplomacy.