Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the WFP, said Afghanistan was experiencing its worst malnutrition surge on record following climate-related disasters, a deadly earthquake and the return of millions of Afghans expelled from Iran and Pakistan.“It is a nutrition crisis here in Afghanistan,” Skau told AFP during a visit to the country.

“The surge last year was the worst we’ve ever seen. It’s worse this year.”The WFP estimated in January that around five million Afghan women and children would face life-threatening levels of malnutrition in 2026 in a country of more than 40 million people.

Afghanistan’s conflict-driven border shutdown with Pakistan, which has largely halted cross-border movement for nearly eight months, combined with economic fallout linked to the Iran war, has disrupted regional supply chains and pushed up prices for fuel and essential food commodities.

“If we weren’t struggling with the supply chain, both delays and costs, we would be able to feed a million more children here in Afghanistan,” Skau said.He said thousands of tons of fortified biscuits intended for Afghan schoolchildren had originally been scheduled to transit through Pakistan before border restrictions forced the WFP to reroute supplies through Dubai and Iran.

After conflict intensified in the Middle East, the agency was compelled to redirect shipments again through seven countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Georgia and Turkmenistan.“It’s about to arrive this week, but it’s taken months.

It cost us way more,” Skau said.Funding shortages have compounded the crisis. The WFP has secured only eight percent of its targeted funding for Afghanistan this year, limiting its ability to respond to escalating humanitarian needs.

Skau described visiting a rural clinic in eastern Afghanistan where women carrying severely malnourished children waited for hours seeking assistance, only to be turned away because aid stocks had run out.

“We did not have assistance to give them,” he said. “The desperation in the voice of these women will stay with me for a long time.”

Chefs and restaurant operators told Reuters that soaring air freight costs and reduced tourist arrivals were squeezing margins, forcing businesses to scale back operations and rethink sourcing strategies in a city where imported ingredients are central to much of its high-end culinary identity.

At Mexican restaurant Lila Molino in Dubai’s Alserkal Avenue district, chef Shaw Lash said staples such as avocados and tomatillos essential to her menu have become harder to source and significantly more expensive since the conflict escalated in late February.

“The reality is cargo has gotten more expensive, gas prices have gone up, the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked,” Lash said. “This is really creating a problem for us as far as our supply.”Lash said she had reduced production, cut payroll costs and shifted toward smaller ingredient purchases while focusing more on grocery products and take-home fajita kits, which have helped offset weaker dine-in demand.

The UAE imports more than 80% of its food consumption, making it highly vulnerable to disruptions in maritime trade. Although a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran took effect on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz through which much of the region’s imports pass remains effectively closed, creating delays and pushing transport costs sharply higher.

Dubai’s full-service restaurant market was valued at about $9.5 billion last year, according to market researcher Mordor Intelligence, which had projected 20% growth for 2026 before the war began. Industry operators now say those expectations are under pressure.

A survey by Juniper Strategy and the Global Restaurant Investment Forum found UAE foodservice operators reported an average 27% drop in demand compared with a year earlier, while supplier cost increases averaged 13%. The study covered 30 industry leaders operating around 400 restaurants between April 1 and April 8.

Tourist-heavy districts and business zones were under the greatest pressure, while restaurants in residential neighborhoods showed stronger resilience and, in some cases, growth.The Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism said some operators were managing a “period of disrupted footfall” and adapting through promotions, alternative service formats and community-driven offers to maintain customer traffic.

At fusion restaurant Jun’s Dubai, chef Kelvin Cheung said sourcing imported seafood such as Norwegian scallops and premium Japanese fish had become significantly more expensive because sea routes were no longer reliable.“Your only option was then to fly air freight, which would increase our costs by about thirty, thirty-five percent,” he said.

Cheung has shifted toward locally sourced fish and launched a six-course menu priced at 225 dirhams ($61) to maintain affordability while preserving customer traffic. He said the restaurant had retained all staff despite the slowdown.Air freight rates on some routes have risen by as much as 70%, driven by higher jet fuel prices and disruptions to oil shipments from the Gulf.

Tourism, a major driver of spending in Dubai’s luxury retail and dining sectors, has also weakened.“That massive influx of tourists who provide that extra boost of economy, of spend, across all industries is what we’re missing now,” Cheung said.

Food writer Courtney Brandt said the war had intensified structural weaknesses already present in Dubai’s restaurant market, including high fixed costs, dependence on tourism and oversupply in the premium dining segment.“We were due for a correction,” she said, noting that international restaurant groups with stronger financial backing may weather the downturn more easily than independent operators.

Some fine-dining restaurants, including venues inside the luxury Atlantis hotels on Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah, have temporarily closed for refurbishment, while others continue to launch new concepts, suggesting confidence in a medium-term recovery.Operators say business has started to improve gradually since the ceasefire and the reopening of schools, with signs of consumer confidence slowly returning across the city.

Companies producing items such as plush toys, footwear, apparel and household goods say the effects of tighter oil markets are already filtering through supply chains, with suppliers raising prices for key inputs derived from petroleum.

Executives report early signs of cost inflation that could eventually be passed on to consumers if disruptions persist.Aleni Brands, a Florida-based manufacturer of soft toys made from polyester and acrylic fibers, said its Chinese suppliers increased material costs by 10% to 15% within weeks of the conflict’s escalation.

Chief Executive Ricardo Venegas said the company is absorbing higher costs for now but may raise prices in 2027 if conditions persist.Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas are used in more than 6,000 consumer products, according to the US Department of Energy, including items such as lipstick, pajamas, detergents, synthetic fabrics and medical supplies.

While the majority of crude oil is used as fuel, a significant portion is refined into chemical compounds that underpin modern manufacturing.Industry experts say crude oil, composed primarily of hydrocarbons, is processed into core petrochemicals such as ethylene, propylene and benzene, which form the basis of plastics, nylon and polyester.

These materials are widely used across sectors ranging from textiles to electronics and healthcare.Consultants note that material costs represent a substantial share of manufacturing expenses.

Andrew Walberer, a partner at Kearney, said raw materials can account for up to 30% of production costs for products such as garments, amplifying the impact of commodity price swings.

Trade groups warn that sustained oil prices above $90 per barrel could accelerate inflationary pressures across supply chains. The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America estimates that petrochemical-based materials make up roughly 70% of synthetic footwear, with oil price fluctuations directly influencing around 30% of those costs.

The group projects retail shoe prices could rise by 1.5% to 3% in the coming months.Manufacturers are also adjusting procurement strategies. Rinseroo, which produces portable washing attachments using petroleum-based components such as polyvinyl chloride, said it increased its order volumes from China after being warned of a potential 30% cost increase.

Founder Lisa Lane said the company is exploring cost-cutting measures while delaying further price hikes after earlier increases linked to tariffs.In the healthcare sector, Gentell said it plans to raise prices by about 15% as costs for petrochemical-based adhesives and energy rise.

Chief Executive David Navazio estimated overall company expenses have increased by roughly 20%.Analysts say the broader economic impact of the conflict is already visible in higher fuel prices, which are feeding into transportation and logistics costs.

This is pushing up prices for goods moved by diesel-powered freight networks, as well as air travel costs due to rising jet fuel prices.

With supply disruptions now extending into their second month, industry participants say prolonged instability could lead to sustained cost pressures across global manufacturing, particularly for products reliant on synthetic materials and plastic-based components.

At a crowded platform in Anand Vihar railway station in Delhi, 35-year-old Raju Prasad and his family prepare to leave the capital after months of struggling to secure basic necessities. Having migrated from Uttar Pradesh less than a year ago in search of work, Prasad now says the rising cost of food and an acute shortage of cooking fuel have made it impossible for his family to survive in the city.

Prasad, who worked as a ragpicker alongside his wife, said the family earned about 500 rupees per day through long hours of manual labour. However, the depletion of their cooking gas supply nearly two weeks ago marked a turning point. With no access to affordable replacements and limited alternatives, their savings were quickly exhausted. He said the family initially resorted to collecting firewood, but even that option has since run out, forcing them to return to their village in Gorakhpur.

The situation reflects a broader trend unfolding across urban centres in India, where supply disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up fuel prices and reduced availability. The shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), widely used for cooking in urban households and small businesses, has had cascading effects on food access and affordability, particularly among migrant workers and low-income groups.

In the same railway station, 25-year-old Sarfaraz, a construction worker from Bihar, waits for funds from his family to purchase a ticket home. Employed at the construction site of the Jewar Noida International Airport, he said his daily wage of around 550 rupees was no longer sufficient to cover rising living costs. His gas supply ran out nearly 20 days ago, and he has been unable to secure a replacement due to both shortages and sharply inflated prices in informal markets.

Sarfaraz said the cost of a gas cylinder has increased from approximately 900 rupees to as high as 4,500 rupees in the black market, placing it beyond reach for most daily wage earners. He added that food prices outside have also doubled, limiting access to even basic meals. “I’ve not had proper food for the past two days,” he said, noting that his savings had been depleted.

Urban food systems in cities such as Delhi rely heavily on a dense network of small eateries, roadside vendors, and informal food services that depend on LPG for daily operations. The shortage has disrupted these networks, leading to closures, reduced menus, and higher prices. This has disproportionately affected migrant workers, students, and other low-income residents who depend on inexpensive prepared food rather than home cooking.Restaurant owners report significant operational challenges.

Anil, who has managed a small restaurant in Nehru Place for three decades, said he has never experienced a similar disruption. He confirmed that rising input costs have forced him to increase menu prices while removing several items. He has also reverted to traditional cooking methods using a chulha, or open-fire stove, which is slower and less efficient.

Anil added that declining customer footfall and higher operational costs are putting pressure on his business and workforce. With around 10 employees dependent on the establishment, he said prolonged disruption could lead to job losses if conditions do not improve.

Government representatives acknowledge supply constraints but maintain that efforts are underway to stabilize distribution. Praveen Shankar Kapoor, spokesperson for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Delhi, said authorities are working to address shortages in both domestic and commercial LPG supply chains. He stated that while consumers using formal booking systems are receiving cylinders, smaller users particularly those relying on 5kg cylinders are facing greater challenges.

Kapoor noted that migrant workers and students often fall outside the formal distribution framework, as they are typically not registered under domestic gas consumer schemes. This has left them dependent on informal markets where prices have surged.Students have also reported significant disruption.

At Jamia Millia Islamia, many students from low-income backgrounds depend on shared accommodation and affordable canteen services.

Farheen Naaz, a media student from West Bengal, said she has not had access to cooking gas for 10 days and has been skipping meals as a result. She added that several university canteens have shut down, while those still operating have raised prices.

Naaz said the situation is affecting the health of students, particularly those living in shared housing arrangements. In her accommodation, which houses around 50 women, residents are facing similar constraints due to both fuel shortages and rising food costs.

The shortage has also affected markets for alternative cooking solutions. Retailers report a sharp increase in demand for electric appliances such as induction cooktops and rice cookers. Ahmad, a wholesale trader at ZamZam Crockery, said prices for induction stoves have risen from around 1,300 rupees to 5,000 rupees. He attributed the increase to upstream supply constraints and higher input costs, adding that prices for many electrical cooking appliances have risen significantly.

The convergence of fuel shortages, rising food prices, and limited access to affordable alternatives has triggered a reverse migration pattern in urban centres. Migrant workers, who form a substantial portion of the informal workforce in cities like Delhi, are increasingly returning to their home villages where food access is relatively more secure and traditional cooking methods remain viable.

At railway stations, scenes of families departing with limited belongings have become more frequent. For many, the decision to leave reflects not only economic strain but also the breakdown of essential urban support systems that sustain daily life for low-income populations.

As Sarfaraz continues to wait for funds to complete his journey home, he checks his phone repeatedly, hoping to join others boarding trains out of the city. His situation underscores the immediate pressures faced by migrant workers, whose livelihoods are closely tied to volatile urban conditions and limited social safety nets.

Shipowners are seeking urgent clarification on the terms of a newly declared ceasefire between Iran and the United States that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as more than 800 vessels remain stranded following weeks of disruption to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The partial shutdown of the strait, triggered by escalating conflict after US and Israeli strikes, has severely constrained maritime traffic through the narrow passage that connects the Arabian Gulf to global markets. Iran subsequently tightened its control over the waterway, leading to a near-total halt in shipping activity as security risks mounted.

Shipowners and operators have kept vessels anchored on both sides of the strait amid repeated attacks and the absence of guarantees for crew safety. The disruption has left a significant portion of the global tanker fleet immobilized, intensifying concerns over energy supply chains and freight logistics.

A ceasefire agreement announced shortly before a deadline set by Donald Trump has raised expectations of a temporary reopening. However, conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran have left critical operational details unresolved.

Iranian authorities have indicated that safe passage will be permitted for a period of two weeks, coordinated with their armed forces and subject to what they described as “technical restrictions.” In contrast, Trump characterized the agreement as enabling a “full, immediate, and safe opening” of the waterway. It remains unclear whether both sides have agreed on transit conditions, including any fees or procedural requirements imposed by Tehran.

The lack of clarity has prompted a cautious response across the shipping industry. The Japan Shipowners’ Association said it would first verify the terms of the agreement before advising its members on resuming operations. Industry participants broadly indicated that vessels would not begin moving until security assurances are substantiated.

Even under favorable conditions, analysts say restoring normal traffic flows will take time. In typical circumstances, approximately 135 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, but volumes have fallen sharply during the crisis. Restarting operations involves coordination among shipowners, insurers, port authorities, and naval forces, all of whom must reassess risk levels before authorizing movement.

Jennifer Parker, an assistant professor at the Defense and Security Institute at the University of Western Australia, said the process cannot be immediate. She noted that stakeholders require evidence of sustained de-escalation rather than a temporary pause in hostilities before committing vessels and crews to transit.

Data from Kpler indicates that energy shipments account for a large share of the stranded fleet. Currently, 426 crude oil and refined fuel tankers are waiting in Gulf waters, along with 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers and 19 liquefied natural gas vessels. Additional ships carrying dry bulk commodities and containerized cargo are also affected, reflecting the impact on multiple sectors of global trade.

The الأزمة has also created significant humanitarian concerns for maritime workers. According to the International Maritime Organization, around 20,000 civilian sailors are stranded aboard vessels in the region, including support and service ships. The agency has warned of mounting challenges related to supply shortages, fatigue, and psychological stress among crews who have been unable to disembark or proceed with their voyages.

For shipowners, the immediate priority remains clarity on operational protocols under the ceasefire framework. Questions persist over navigation corridors, coordination mechanisms with Iranian forces, insurance coverage, and liability in the event of renewed hostilities.

The Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial share of global oil shipments, making its accessibility central to energy market stability. Any prolonged disruption has direct implications for supply flows and price volatility, amplifying the importance of a clear and enforceable agreement.

While the ceasefire has introduced a potential pathway to easing the crisis, the absence of detailed, mutually verified terms continues to delay decision-making across the shipping industry, leaving hundreds of vessels and thousands of seafarers in a state of prolonged uncertainty.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war had caused the most severe disruption to global energy supply on record, with millions of barrels of oil production shut down due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva told Reuters, adding that the IMF would cut its growth forecasts and raise inflation projections in its upcoming World Economic Outlook.

The conflict is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers will assess the economic fallout from the crisis.

The Fund had previously anticipated a modest upgrade to global growth projections before the escalation.Georgieva said global oil supply had fallen by about 13%, with knock-on effects extending beyond energy markets into supply chains for commodities such as fertilizers and helium.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $110 per barrel, reflecting tightening supply conditions.She warned that even a swift resolution would leave a lasting economic impact, while a prolonged conflict would deepen inflationary pressures and further dampen growth prospects.

The effects are expected to be uneven, with energy-importing countries facing the greatest strain. Many low-income economies lack the fiscal capacity to cushion rising costs, increasing risks of economic instability and social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already sought financial assistance from the IMF, which could expand existing lending programs to address urgent needs. She cautioned against broad energy subsidies, arguing they could exacerbate inflation.Energy exporters have also been affected.

Damage to production infrastructure has slowed output recovery in some countries, including Qatar, where restoration of natural gas capacity could take several years.The IMF is coordinating with other global institutions, including the International Energy Agency and the World Bank, to assess the broader implications of the conflict.

Georgieva also highlighted risks to food security, noting that disruptions to fertilizer supplies could trigger wider shortages if the conflict continues.

The World Food Programme has warned that millions could face acute hunger if conditions worsen.

The scheme would provide government-backed guarantees to banks for lending over a four-year period, mirroring measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic to sustain credit flow to stressed sectors.

The guarantees are expected to cover up to 90% of loans of up to 1 billion rupees ($10.75 million), the sources said.The fiscal cost of the plan is estimated at 170 billion to 180 billion rupees ($1.83 billion to $1.94 billion), according to the sources, who declined to be identified as discussions are ongoing.

Indian businesses, including textile and glass manufacturers, have been affected by supply disruptions linked to the war involving Iran, while rising energy prices have added to cost pressures.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India remains particularly exposed to volatility stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments.The government is also grappling with broader macroeconomic risks, including the prospect of higher inflation and slower growth as fuel costs rise and supply chains tighten.

The proposed guarantees are intended to encourage banks to continue lending despite heightened risks, ensuring businesses can meet obligations and sustain operations during the crisis.

India deployed a similar credit guarantee programme in 2020 to support sectors such as travel and tourism during the pandemic, helping firms resume operations and manage debt burdens.

A prolonged Middle East conflict has disrupted gas supplies to India’s industrial sector, forcing glass manufacturers in Firozabad to scale back operations and lay off workers, highlighting vulnerabilities in the country’s energy-dependent manufacturing base.

Known as India’s “Glass City” with a centuries-old tradition of glassmaking, Firozabad has seen production decline sharply as furnaces reliant on continuous high-temperature gas supply operate below capacity. Industry participants said the disruption has hit during a peak production period, compounding economic losses.

Glass furnaces require temperatures above 1,000 degrees Celsius to maintain molten consistency, making uninterrupted gas supply essential. Supply cuts exceeding 20% since early March have reduced output by about 40%, according to furnace operators, reflecting the disproportionate impact of energy shortages on production.

The disruption is linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has strained energy markets and supply chains. India’s dependence on imported gas has made its industrial base particularly exposed, with authorities prioritising household and essential usage when supplies tighten.Workers have borne the immediate impact.

At one unit that employed more than 500 workers until last month, fewer than 200 remain on payroll, according to furnace operator Somesh Yadav. Across the city, smaller workshops have shut operations temporarily as they await stable fuel availability.

The glass industry in Firozabad employs around 200,000 workers directly, according to the Uttar Pradesh Glass Manufacturers’ Syndicate, with total employment rising to approximately 500,000 when indirect roles are included. Industry officials warned that prolonged disruption could lead to widespread job losses.Rajkumar Mittal of the industry group said the continuation of current conditions could erase the production cycle for the season, which typically runs from March through August.

This period is crucial for fulfilling export orders tied to major retail cycles in Western markets.Manufacturers reported a sharp decline in output and exports. Mukesh Kumar Bansal, a local exporter supplying markets in the United States and Europe, said his factory’s production had dropped by more than one-third, with no shipments leaving in March.

Industry estimates suggest glassware exports fell by as much as 20% last month, despite earlier projections of annual growth.Logistics disruptions have compounded the crisis. India relies heavily on Gulf shipping routes, which have become costlier due to higher freight and insurance charges linked to the conflict.

Shipping a 40-foot container to Europe has risen by more than 60%, exporters said, while shipments to Gulf markets have stalled entirely.Economists have pointed to broader risks for India’s trade flows. Sonal Varma of Nomura described India as highly vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for energy and trade.

Manufacturers reported consignments stranded at ports, including Mumbai, as transport costs surged and routes were rerouted.The impact has extended beyond glassmaking. Textile exporters in Karur and manufacturers in other sectors such as machinery and auto components have also reported rising freight costs and falling shipments. Stiffenbabu Raju of Home Lines Textiles said container costs had more than tripled within weeks, forcing the suspension of exports as buyers resisted price increases.

Industry bodies estimate that about 17% of India’s more than 20 million small manufacturing and exporting units are facing sharp increases in input and logistics costs. K.E. Raghunathan of the Association of Indian Entrepreneurs said many businesses risk closure if conditions persist, with significant employment implications.State-run GAIL Gas said in a statement that supplies to Firozabad and nearby industrial areas continued under allocated volumes, with availability exceeding consumption.

The company added that some customers may have reduced offtake due to prevailing uncertainties rather than supply restrictions.The disruptions come as India seeks to raise manufacturing’s share of gross domestic product to 25% from about 17%, a target that analysts say could be challenged by prolonged energy and trade volatility.

Data from HSBC showed India’s manufacturing activity falling to a four-and-a-half-year low in March, reflecting weakening demand and supply-side constraints linked to the conflict.

India, the world’s second-largest crude steel producer, is facing one of its most severe LPG supply crises in decades as shipments from key producers have been affected by the ongoing Iran war, tightening availability of fuel critical for smaller steel units.

“We have taken up with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas to see within the existing conditions what best can be done,” the source said, adding discussions were ongoing.

Industry participants have warned that prolonged shortages could force production cuts, particularly among small and medium-sized steel producers that rely heavily on LPG.

“If this LPG situation continues, it will not only impact margins but also affect jobs, future investments in value-added steel, and the confidence to commit to long-term contracts, both in India and overseas,” said Vedant Goel, a director at Pune-based Enlight Metals.

India has already invoked emergency measures to prioritise gas supplies for essential sectors after disruptions to liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz constrained domestic availability.

The supply squeeze has intensified concerns over industrial output stability, as policymakers weigh options to balance energy security with manufacturing demand amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The warning, delivered through a social media post and reinforced by public remarks, signals a significant hardening of Washington’s stance toward its northern neighbour amid broader concerns over global trade realignments and geopolitical rivalry with Beijing.

Trump argued that a deepening Canada-China trade relationship would expose Canada to economic and strategic risks while undermining U.S. efforts to curb Chinese influence in North America.

He claimed that China could use Canada as an indirect gateway to bypass American tariffs, adding that such a move would force the United States to respond aggressively to protect its domestic industries and supply chains.

The threat comes shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China to reset strained bilateral ties and secure a trade deal with Canada’s second-largest trading partner.

Initially, Trump had appeared supportive of Canada exploring trade opportunities with Beijing, but the tone has shifted dramatically in recent days as political and diplomatic friction between the two allies has intensified.

Relations between Washington and Ottawa have been strained by a series of disputes, including disagreements over global governance, economic sovereignty, and Trump’s controversial remarks about Greenland.

Carney recently stated that the traditional rules-based global order is weakening and argued that middle-power nations like Canada must cooperate to avoid being sidelined in an era of great-power competition.

Trump responded forcefully, suggesting that Canada’s economic strength is deeply dependent on the United States and warning that any attempt to align too closely with China would carry severe consequences.

He also suggested that Canadian industries could suffer significant damage if U.S. tariffs were imposed at the scale he described.

A 100 percent tariff would represent an unprecedented escalation in U.S.-Canada trade relations and would likely hit key Canadian sectors including automotive manufacturing, metals, machinery, and cross-border supply chains that are deeply integrated with the U.S. economy. Analysts warn that such measures could disrupt regional markets, raise costs for consumers, and trigger retaliatory actions from Canada.

Canadian officials have so far responded cautiously, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced foreign policy while safeguarding national interests.

Carney has rejected claims that Canada’s prosperity depends solely on the United States, arguing instead that the country thrives because of its institutions, workforce, and global partnerships.

The standoff highlights the growing uncertainty facing global trade as countries reassess alliances and supply chains amid rising geopolitical tensions.

It also underscores how trade policy is increasingly being used as a tool of strategic pressure rather than purely economic negotiation.

For businesses on both sides of the border, the threat has injected new volatility into markets already grappling with slowing growth, shifting interest-rate expectations, and geopolitical risk.

Industry groups have warned that sudden tariff hikes could stall investment decisions and weaken competitiveness across North America.

As Canada weighs its next steps, the situation illustrates the delicate balancing act faced by middle powers seeking to diversify trade ties without provoking backlash from dominant partners.

Whether the tariff threat materializes or serves primarily as leverage, it has already intensified debate over sovereignty, economic independence, and the future shape of global trade relationships.