The sharp increase reflects a sustained rise in crude oil prices, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply typically flows. Tankers stranded in the region have curtailed deliveries, constraining supply and pushing benchmark oil prices higher.

Market analysts say the price trajectory briefly softened in mid-April amid expectations of a potential ceasefire. “There was optimism that this could mark the beginning of the end of the conflict,” said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy, noting that crude and gasoline prices temporarily declined before reversing course as hostilities persisted.

Crude oil accounts for the largest share of gasoline costs in the United States, representing about 51 percent of pump prices in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Taxes contribute roughly 17 percent, while refining, distribution, and marketing costs make up the remainder.

The International Energy Agency has described the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz as the largest supply shock in oil market history, with prices reaching as high as $112 per barrel in early April. Analysts note that gasoline prices tend to track crude movements closely, with minimal lag.

Additional upward pressure followed US actions in April to block Iranian oil exports, a move analysts say removed a key supply source from global markets. “Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, which helped moderate prices,” said Jim Krane, an energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, adding that the restrictions intensified price pressures.

Energy markets have remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with fluctuations tied to reports of attacks in the Arabian Gulf or shifts in diplomatic efforts. “The oil market is exquisitely sensitive to what’s coming out of the White House,” said Bob Kleinberg, a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

The pace of price increases has echoed previous geopolitical shocks, including a 48-cent weekly rise at the outset of the Iran conflict. However, analysts caution that no near-term relief is likely, as prolonged constraints in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to sustain upward pressure on prices.

Even in the event of a durable resolution, market participants say a return to pre-war pricing levels could take months due to lingering risk premiums associated with shipping through the region and heightened insurance costs for oil transport.

Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung that recovery timelines would vary across countries, with some producers facing longer setbacks than others. He said overall output in the region was expected to return to pre-war levels in roughly two years, citing uneven infrastructure damage and differing production capacities.

He cautioned that markets may be underestimating the consequences of continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas shipments. While cargoes dispatched before the outbreak of hostilities have largely reached their destinations, he said the absence of new shipments in March was beginning to create supply gaps, particularly for Asian markets.

“No new tankers were loaded in March,” Birol said, adding that if the strait remains closed, the shortfall could translate into sustained upward pressure on global energy prices.The disruption comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which have curtailed production and complicated export logistics.

Energy analysts have pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical vulnerability, handling a significant share of global seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas flows.Birol said the IEA remained prepared to intervene through coordinated releases of emergency oil reserves, following a similar move earlier in March aimed at stabilizing markets.

He added that while such action was not yet imminent, it remained under active consideration should supply conditions deteriorate further.