In an interview published Monday, Trump said the United States was in talks with Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander. Qalibaf denied the assertion in a statement, saying Washington was “promoting desires as news while threatening our nation at the same time.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry also dismissed the claim. Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said no negotiations had taken place, though he confirmed that intermediaries had conveyed proposals to Tehran.

Baghaei said Iran would not overlook what he described as past breaches of diplomacy, referring to indirect talks in 2025 and early 2026 that were followed by military action involving the United States and Israel.

War pressure shapes diplomacy claimsThe exchange comes as Trump has increased pressure on Tehran to reach an agreement to end the ongoing conflict, now in its fifth week following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes launched in late February.

Trump warned that failure to reach a deal “shortly” could result in widespread destruction of Iran’s energy infrastructure and critical facilities, including desalination plants.

Qalibaf’s role under scrutinyQalibaf, long viewed as a pragmatic conservative within Iran’s political system, has previously been mentioned as a potential interlocutor for Western governments.

However, questions remain about his authority within Iran’s complex power structure following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February airstrike.His successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, is believed to maintain ties with Qalibaf, though competing centers of power within Iran’s leadership continue to shape decision-making.

Analysts say references to Qalibaf as a negotiating channel may reflect both external pressure tactics and internal political maneuvering, as Tehran navigates wartime conditions and diplomatic isolation.

The Middle East supplied about 57% of China’s direct seaborne crude imports in 2025, equivalent to around 5.9 million barrels per day. Of that volume, roughly 1.4 million barrels per day originated from Iran.However, analysts say China’s large strategic stockpiles give it a cushion against short-term disruptions. Kpler analyst Muyu Xu estimated that China holds about 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil in onshore inventories.Those reserves equal roughly 115 days of China’s seaborne crude imports, providing what Xu described as a “meaningful buffer” that allows the country and its refiners to manage temporary supply shocks and price spikes caused by instability in the region.The scale of those reserves, built up over years of government-directed stockpiling, reduces pressure on Beijing to respond militarily or economically to the crisis.

Diplomatic balancing actChina has expanded its diplomatic footprint in the Middle East in recent years as part of a broader strategy to secure energy supplies and increase geopolitical influence.In 2023, Beijing brokered a landmark agreement restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia after years of regional rivalry. Tehran later joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member, strengthening ties with China and Russia.At the same time, Beijing has sought to maintain stable relations with Gulf energy exporters while avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts.Chinese officials have called for an immediate halt to military operations following the strikes on Iran, urging restraint from all sides. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the priority was preventing further escalation and limiting the spread of conflict across the region.The crisis also comes weeks before a planned summit between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to begin on March 31 in China.Analysts said the Iran conflict is unlikely to derail the meeting unless Washington moves aggressively to clamp down on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.Russia seen benefiting from supply shiftsIf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, analysts say alternative suppliers could gain from the market shift.Russia could become a key beneficiary, as its crude exports represent one of the few large-scale alternatives available to Asian buyers seeking to replace Middle Eastern barrels.“Russian barrels are one of the most immediately available alternatives for India and China to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies,” Xu said.China’s reliance on imported energy, combined with its diplomatic ties across the Gulf, leaves Beijing walking a careful line as tensions in the region threaten to reshape global oil trade routes.