Against Khamenei’s strategy, Rouhani raised a multi-party system and a referendum…

Rouhani stressed the role of his position as president in the constitution at a meeting on constitutional rights and citizenship on Monday, December 21, 2020. He said, “Article 134 of Constitution clearly states, the policymaking, and planning are the responsibility of President.”

Rouhani tailored his speech in response to Khamenei’s speech on December 20^th and made every effort to theorize his strategy for the survival of the mullahs’ regime against Khamenei’s strategy. Because Khamenei, in his speech in the face-off with Rouhani on dealing with sanctions, emphasized a strategy of resistance and neutralizing them and by relying on contraction policy, he had previously emphasized the formation of a “young Hezbollahi government”.

Against Khamenei’s strategy, Rouhani raised a multi-party system and a referendum. He also hastily tried to send his foreign minister, Zarif, to Europe to discuss JCPOA.

The question is, what is the main dispute between these two gangs and why did they turn to this dispute at the height of coronavirus outbreak?

The fact is, the regime is about to be overthrown in its entirety, and this dispute is not due to the quiddity of these two gangs at the head of the mullah’s regime, but the difference in their approach and strategy for mullahs’ regime survival. An old proverb says, “When the land hardens, the bulls gore each other.” Yes, now the regime leaders are seeking a solution for the incurable societal crisis they have created and impasse of their system in two antagonistic strategies for survival.

Rouhani says that the survival of the regime depends on the presidency and if it were not for the republic, the regime could not survive. He beats the drum of negotiations with United States to lift the sanctions. Khamenei says that lifting the sanctions is in the hand of the enemy and beats the drums of neutralizing the sanctions and resistance economy. Rouhani is talking about a multi-party system, and Khamenei’s gang is talking about the candidacy of IRGC commanders for the next presidential election, ultimately considering the IRGC as the regime’s survival organ and magic stick.

With these two strategies as indicators, we could read the hands of these two gangs in all areas. These two strategies in essence are an internal war to seize the levers of plunder, looting and export of terrorism under the guise of diplomats and to take foreign nationals hostage, to kidnap Iranian activists and execute them, which Zarif wants to pave the path for, and negotiate under the pretext of JCPOA. The revelation of terrorist nature and inner working of regime’s diplomatic machine in the trial of Assadollah Assadi in city of Antwerp in Belgium was an example among dozens.

Mullahs’ regime by pursuing both strategies have committed terrorist acts in Europe and parts of the world and will carry on with more intensity in its final stage. Mr. Sikorski, a member of the European Parliament and former Polish foreign minister said meeting Zarif a smiling Ribbentrop (Hitler’s foreign minister) by European foreign ministers, according to Churchill, is feeding crocodiles and against peace and democracy and religious fascism sees it as a green light for execution and assassination.

Now, the international community, and especially Europe, which for 41 years by pursuing appeasement policy has enabled the mullahs’ regime to continue hostage-taking, extortion, terrorist acts, incitement to violence and war in the world, oppression, and imprisonment and torture at home, must stand firm against the Iranian regime. Receiving and meeting with the Minister of Terrorism and fundamentalism of Iran is giving permission and green light to their terrorists in Iran, Middle East, and Europe. Everything became clear in the court of Antwerp, Belgium, and it cannot be ignored, otherwise, the mullahs’ regime will become emboldened.

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1. 

According to Amnesty International, Ahmadreza Djalali’s sentence will be carried out a week from November 24.

The news of his imminent execution was initially reported by his wife Vida Mehran Nia, who lives in Sweden.

The transfer of Djalali to solitary confinement coincided with the release of new details about the case of the Iranian regime’s diplomat, Asssadollah Assadi. Assadi and three others are going to be tried for planning a terrorist attack on a gathering of the PMOI, an Iranian opposition group, held in Paris in 2018. The plan was foiled with police intervention. Assadi’s trial will start in two days.

There have been speculations about the regime’s attempt to exchange Assadollah Assadi with Ahmadreza Djalali.

Sweden’s Foreign Minister on Tuesday condemned Djalali’s imminent execution. 

“In light of reports that Iran may have planned to enforce a death penalty against the Swedish citizen Djalali, I have today spoken with Iran’s foreign minister (Mohammad Javad) Zarif”, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said on Twitter.

“Sweden condemns the death penalty and works to ensure that the verdict against Djalali is not enforced.”

In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh said, “Unfortunately, the Swedish authorities’ information on the situation of Mr. Ahmadreza Djalali, who is in prison due to security crimes, is incomplete and incorrect”.

“As Dr. Zarif … explained to Ms. Linde, Iran’s judiciary is independent and any meddling in the issuance or execution of judicial rulings is unacceptable”, he added.

Background

Djalali was formally invited to the University of Tehran on April 24, 2016, where he was detained by Intelligence Agents for alleged “espionage and cooperation with an enemy country” and sentenced to death.

Ahmadreza Djalali was sentenced to death for “corruption on earth” in October 2017 in an unfair trial before the 15^th Branch of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran. His sentence was based on “confessions” taken from Djallili under torture. He was threatened to death and told that his children in Sweden and his mother in Iran would be killed or harmed.

According to Amnesty, in an August 2017 letter written from Evin prison, Ahmadreza Djalali said he was held solely because of his refusal to use his academic ties in European institutions to spy for Iran.

The state-run TV IRIB aired Djalali’s “confessions” on December 17 along with a voiceover presenting him as a “spy”. His lawyers learned on December 9, 2018, that Djalali’s death sentence was upheld despite denying the lawyers an opportunity to file their defense submissions on his behalf.

The Parliament is using Rouhani and Zarif as the scapegoats for all the regime’s misery, thereby saving Khamenei. 

An old Persian saying goes—“When the judge and the cleric become thieves, they call on liars and wicked ones as their witnesses”.

 Usually, when a person has malicious intent or is a tattler and his/her words are based on total lack of principles, they name someone worse than themselves as their witness to reason that they are honest. This is exactly what happened at the Iranian regime’s 11^th Majlis (parliament) when on July 5, Zarif the liar, under attack, named Khamenei as his witness.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian regime’s foreign minister, was present at the Parliament on July 5 to report on foreign policy and economic diplomacy. During his speech, a few MPs stood up shouting “liar” and “Mr. Zarif, stop. We do not want to hear lies.” In return, Zarif warned the MPs saying: “The Supreme Leader Khamenei calls me honest and brave, but you call me a liar and crippled?” He was faced with “death to the liar.”

Tehran’s MP, Malek Shariati, addressed Zarif and said: “The foreign ministry is directly responsible for the value of a dollar vs Tomans; 22,000 Tomans [Iran’s currency]. In comparison with seven years ago, the dollar has become more dominant in the country’s economy and livelihood. Your economic department has acted very weak. What has your economic diplomacy achieved in the region? We have failed in almost all the contracts we had in the region. This recent contract over gas with Turkmenistan [in Central Asia, bordered by the Caspian Sea], what happened to it? Why have you made every capacity in this country dependent on the US, ignoring the region?”

Then Zarif started defending himself by mentioning his close relations with Qasem Soleimani, the late No.1 terrorist of the world, killed by the US, and said: “You speak of Haj Qasem? You must know that we had meetings on a weekly basis. Whatever we did in the region was in complete coordination with him.” 

Alireza Salimi, MP from Mahalat and Dilijan (central Iran), said: “Mr. Zarif, You said we negotiated to ease the pressure on people’s livelihood; don’t you know that a dollar is 22,000 Tomans now? Don’t you know the cost of housing? Last week, the president said that if the US acts in the political arena, then you will answer with a special act in response. You said that you deceived the US and Obama. If so, why is it that when the US left the JCPOA, you did not dare to complain; you were afraid that they would use the ‘trigger mechanism’. Wasn’t it our negotiation team that was deceived?”

On July 5, the top advisor for the US State Department’s public relations, Mr. Len Khodorkovsky, commenting on Javad Zarif’s speech to the Parliament said “By admitting to lying during negotiations, Javad Zarif confirmed the JCPOA is a sham. By citing consultations with Soleimani, Nasrallah and Palestinian terrorists to bolster his credibility, he reinforced the regime’s status as the world’s top terrorist.

In his speech, Zarif introduced Khamenei as both a witness and a culprit and said: “Foreign policy is no place for factional infighting. It is under the authority of Ali Khamenei. He is the one that dictates the regime’s general policy regarding foreign policy. We have all embarked on the same boat. We are all in it together.”

The 11^th Parliament is largely Khamenei’s apparatus for achieving his internal goal: elimination of his rival for power, Rouhani, and laying the ground for ‘a young Hezb’allah government’ (Hezb’allah in this context means the party of God. It was created first by Khomeini in 1979 after the revolution in Iran and then used for proxy groups outside Iran like Lebanon and Iraq. Khamenei used this word to show that he wanted an extremist group like the one after revolution rather than Rouhani’s Government.

The Parliament is using Rouhani and Zarif as the scapegoats for all the regime’s misery, thereby saving Khamenei. 

Jahan San’at, a state-run daily, in its July 7 issue under the title of “Confrontation begins; Parliament vs administration”, wrote: “It is clear that the Parliament’s special task is to drag the [Rouhani] administration through the mud,” and he added: “To impeach the administration and vote for its disqualification is the most obvious scenario that the Parliament is preparing for, using every pretext.” 

But, purging the whole system in 2020 requires total domination of power, which Khamenei lacks. Accordingly, he is faced with a deadly risk; and this Parliament, appointed by Khamenei with great effort, will not profit him.

Now, there are two factions in a power struggle in Iran, on one hand, there are Khamenei and Parliament and judiciary system, and on the other hand executive power (Rouhani and his administration).  Khamenei’s plan is to thwart Rouhani and dismiss him or impeach him, similar to what Khomeini did in 1980, when he dismissed President Banisadr to have full control of the ruling apparatus. But  Khamenei lacks this power to do this, because the risk is that at this point with the crumbling economy and the powder keg situation of the society, the risk is that the people rise up again, as in November protest in 192 cities after gas price hikes, and then he will not able to control it. 

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.