China oil output peaks near limits despite record gains

Beijing— China has reached near the limits of its domestic oil production capacity after hitting a record high in 2025, with output expected to plateau at around 4 million barrels per day for the next decade despite aggressive drilling and technological advances, analysts said.

The world’s largest oil importer boosted production through a combination of intensified drilling at ageing fields, offshore expansion and early-stage shale development, but experts say further gains will be constrained by rising costs and geological limits.

China’s output reached about 4.32 million barrels per day last year, and government targets outlined in its latest five-year plan call for maintaining production near 4 million bpd through 2030.

Industry observers view this level as a strategic baseline to support manufacturing and energy security.

Despite these efforts, China remains heavily dependent on imports, which stood at 11.55 million bpd last year, underscoring the structural gap between domestic supply and demand.

Zhu Weilin said national oil companies are working to sustain output at current levels to guard against supply disruptions, particularly as global markets face volatility.

Much of China’s production resilience comes from mature oilfields such as Daqing oil field, a cornerstone of the country’s energy sector for decades. The field continues to produce roughly 600,000 bpd, supported by advanced recovery techniques.

Engineers have deployed “tertiary recovery” methods, including chemical injection, to extract remaining reserves from ageing wells.

These techniques can increase output by about 20% compared to traditional water-injection methods.The scale of such operations has made China a global leader in enhanced oil recovery, with expertise exported to projects in countries including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

While shale oil output is expected to grow and potentially double by 2035, analysts say it remains commercially challenging due to higher extraction costs and technical complexity.

Offshore production, another key driver of recent growth, is also showing signs of slowing expansion, further limiting upside potential.

The production plateau comes as China navigates shifting energy dynamics, including slowing economic growth and a transition toward electrification in transport, which is expected to temper demand growth over time.

At the same time, disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East a region supplying roughly half of China’s crude imports have reinforced the importance of maintaining stable domestic output.